Inflation ...

[Dimitri]

That’s why we have a gazillion openings yet 8% of the workforce is content sitting on the sidelines collecting $500/week.

Not really, there is always a natural rate of unemployment, most functional economies see a rate of 5.5-6.5%. In the 1990's it was as high as 9% here in Canada.

In 2019 we averaged a 5.7% unemployment over the year. And considering most of the country still had restrictions over June and it still fell to 7.8%. The 2.1% difference is nearly meaningless.

The difference between the average employment figure of 2019 and June's figure was less then 200,000 jobs. Out of a workforce of 20 million people.

A gazillion openings not being filled is due to demand side, and the supply for the most part knows they can get a better deal now.

 

[Mad Mike]

Not really, there is always a natural rate of unemployment, most functional economies see a rate of 5.5-6.5%. In the 1990's it was as high as 9% here in Canada.

In 2019 we averaged a 5.7% unemployment over the year. And considering most of the country still had restrictions over June and it still fell to 7.8%. The 2.1% difference is nearly meaningless.

The difference between the average employment figure of 2019 and June's figure was less then 200,000 jobs. Out of a workforce of 20 million people.

A gazillion openings not being filled is due to demand side, and the supply for the most part knows they can get a better deal now.

The 5.5% you quote is based on demand side being filled. It drops to the low 4s when job supply exceeds demand. When you pay able bodied people to stay home, welfare starts to compete with employers for workers and the number of ‘unemployed’ jumps.

That’s the current situation in Ontario.

CERB should have been tied to the economy and available jobs. As jobs returned CERB should have been ended and the regular EI program should have taken over.

In my small world, this means we have to buy components from China that we should be making here. Not because they are cheaper, but because labour shortages have interrupted us and our domestic suppliers.

 

[mimico_polak]

It's the not showing up part not the money.

CERB was only $2000 a month.

$2000 / (22 × 8) = $11.36 an hour.

Many people refused to work legally when they could get CERB and a cash salary.
Win win for them I guess.

 

[Dimitri]

The 5.5% you quote is based on demand side being filled. It drops to the low 4s when job supply exceeds demand.

Our unemployment rate has never went below 5.4% since 1976, and that was only for a single month (May 2019). Since 1976, our average unemployment rate has been 8.2%.

So CERB or not. Our unemployment rate is normal. You are simply experiencing the demands of the labor market.

Sucks for businesses who've always thought they were in control of the labor market, good for employees when unskilled jobs are being offered at over $20 an hour in the GTA now.

 

[Jampy00]

Sucks for businesses who've always thought they were in control of the labor market, good for employees when unskilled jobs are being offered at over $20 an hour in the GTA now.

Typically, those businesses might just control the labor market somewhere else, then those unskilled positions making $20 an hour may all of a sudden require skills. Hypothetical of course...

 

[Dimitri]

Many people refused to work legally when they could get CERB and a cash salary.

It's the same myth as always "no one wants to work because of welfare" businesses like to spew when they can't attract workers because they are unwilling to pay market rate.

Our unemployment rate the last decade has averaged 7.1%, in June with most provinces under some sort of COVID order, still saw unemployment fall to 7.8%. Which is pretty good.

 

[mimico_polak]

It's the same myth as always "no one wants to work because of welfare" businesses like to spew when they can't attract workers because they are unwilling to pay market rate.

Our unemployment rate the last decade has averaged 7.1%, in June with most provinces under some sort of COVID order, still saw unemployment fall to 7.8%. Which is pretty good.

Ok. I’ll go tell that to my buddies who were trying to hire during CERB.
Employer: coming back to work?
Employee: no I’m scared of COVID so I’ll stay home to keep me and family safe
Employer: OK
Employee: well I could do it if you pay me cash

Mind you it’s only 2 or 3 diff companies I’ve heard this from.

There will always be people that abuse the system. Same as the EI guys who work cash while collecting their EI cheques.

Total 100% myth. Small sample, but it happens.

 

[Jampy00]

It's the same myth as always "no one wants to work because of welfare" businesses like to spew when they can't attract workers because they are unwilling to pay market rate.

Can you provide a list of these businesses? Could be there are a few myth's floating around..

 

[Roadghost]

So what’s your solution? I can move production to QC and have lots of labor at $15/hr. Or Indiana for $9/hr. How does that help anyone living in Ontario?

I believe unemployment would drop by half and prevailing min wage in the GTA would settle around $16 if CERB got kicked to the curb.

As for the car, an $800 mo food budget and $2000 apt - probably not on min wage anywhere.

You have lots of options. Move to a place where the COL is lower, or re-evaluate your cost structure and price your product/service accordingly. The GTA is a very expensive place. You can try QC, but they have the same problem getting workers there. Indiana sounds like a great idea, but you're paying higher corp. tax and medical insurance. I agree that for the kids who live at home CERB creates a motivation problem, but it's not the whole problem. We can't have people living 20 to a house just because you don't want to charge your customers a market price.

 

[crankcall]

I'm seeing an epidemic in companies trying to fill introductory jobs, every restaurant /bar in my area has a sign out "hiring" , the new grocery that opened is "hiring for all positions" , cabinets shops around here just cant hire anybody.
inflation is a huge problem here in Oakville, sure you could get a basement apt for $1,200. and drive an old car, but server jobs typically come with no dental/ health benefits and your not making ends meet at $19.00 an hour. You cant work in a warehouse here at $19.00 and eat.

so lets take the Walmart effect, since its the numbers I have at hand
companies total profit in 2004 , 10.3 billion, if you gave every employee that profit its $6,400 per employee, then lets take Microsoft 12.3 billion in 2004 , split that its $200,000 per employee. 30 times walmart
so if the Walmart was paying $8.00 per hour in the US or $9.00 , you just could not pay those people $12.00 , there is just not enough money to do it. So you cant say pay people more. Sometimes there isn't more. Without raising prices, and at walmart you dont raise prices, you control costs.

Right now, those that want a 'job', can have a job, they are everywhere. Can you be a single dad with two kids and an apt. in Toronto? Well a lot of those jobs will not work for you.

 

[Dimitri]

Total 100% myth. Small sample, but it happens.

The numbers don't support it. Unemployment is about normal.

Job vacancy rate year Q2 2019 to Q1 2020 at the start of the pandemic averaged 3.2%. While Q1 2021 was a little higher at 3.6%.

That 0.4% vacancy rate translates to 61,500 jobs out of a workforce of 20 million Canadians. Peanuts.

People have shifted to better paying jobs during this pandemic, which has been widely reported, while cost of living has gone up significantly in the GTA. It doesn't make economic sense for someone to take a low paying job for anything but cash anymore when there are better options.

 

[boyoboy]

minimum wage 20$
piss off lowering the minimum wage from 15 to 14 mr ford.
inflation goes up, so will interest rates...
20 bucks an hour is barely enough to survive..

 

[Dimitri]

Without raising prices, and at walmart you dont raise prices, you control costs.

Walmart's business model to crush competition only works in a semi-socialist country where Medicaid and food stamps keeps the majority of their employees at a survivable level. Yet Walmart doesn't pay anywhere near the same amount of taxes into the system as their employees draw out.

Perhaps Walmart's prices should have never been that low to begin with, either though company design or government intervention, which allowed it to be a poor employer, poor corporate citizen and destroy vast segments of the retail market with their predatory tactics. If there was ever a good reason for a company to be forced out of business by a government. Walmart is it.

 

[nobbie48]

The minimum wage is a factor but so is ego. Friend of friend thing but the guy was working at the airport at just over minimum and was financially tight. He turned down a better paying job because it was factory work. He liked to brag that he worked at he airport and could go through security any time he wanted.

A lot of managers of small stores or burger joints aren't hauling in serious coin but they're a manager and get to play boss.

 

[mimico_polak]

The minimum wage is a factor but so is ego. Friend of friend thing but the guy was working at the airport at just over minimum and was financially tight. He turned down a better paying job because it was factory work. He liked to brag that he worked at he airport and could go through security any time he wanted.

A lot of managers of small stores or burger joints aren't hauling in serious coin but they're a manager and get to play boss.

My cousin had a tenant once that lost his job. He offered him work after 6 months of sitting at home in construction….

‘No thanks. I’m holding out for a management position.’

Guy didn’t work for another year.

 

[Mad Mike]

Many people refused to work legally when they could get CERB and a cash salary.
Win win for them I guess.

More than one applicant to our positions asked for cash, my guess is to protect their ability to continue sucking CERB while getting paid for work. We had one gal who asked if she could do 1 day a week till CERB ended, then go full time.

As you have probably figures out, I don’t like CERB.

 

[bitzz]

Walmart's business model to ...destroy vast segments of the retail market with their predatory tactics. If there was ever a good reason for a company to be forced out of business by a government. Walmart is it.

A "predatory tactic" that seems to be particular to Walmart:
You decide to sell at Walmart. Seems like a good idea, great exposure, almost guaranteed sales, easy logistics, etc etc.
Walmart agrees to stock and retail your widgets at a wholesale price to Walmart of $20.
Then Walmart tells you they can increase sales by 10% if you drop the wholesale price to $19, this means increased production. You have to hire a couple of bodies.
All is going well, Walmart says "if you can drop the wholesale price to $17, we'll take 50% of your production.
You can swing this. Less paper work, less shipping, less packaging... less profit per unit. So YEAH OK let's do it.
Now Walmart comes back with "now we have 50% of your business you drop the wholesale unit price to $14 or we stop buying".
Got ya' by the short and curlies.
... and the ONLY way you're gonna do $14 is to move production offshore, and compromise the quality of the widgets.
US loses another small business, that pays taxes, a bunch of people lose their jobs, that used to pay income tax, your suppliers lose you as a customer....
There is Walmart and the Snapper company.

... YEAH, this is the way forward.

 

[Mad Mike]

You have lots of options. Move to a place where the COL is lower, or re-evaluate your cost structure and price your product/service accordingly. The GTA is a very expensive place. You can try QC, but they have the same problem getting workers there. Indiana sounds like a great idea, but you're paying higher corp. tax and medical insurance. I agree that for the kids who live at home CERB creates a motivation problem, but it's not the whole problem. We can't have people living 20 to a house just because you don't want to charge your customers a market price.

We have facilities all over the world. We can assemble in some very low cost places, we prefer operating here because we can. We can be competitive and provide the lowest skilled labor 90% of the national average AND some incredible opportunities to grow. An ambitious unskilled labourers could become a ticketed machinist, a salesman, a team leader and be in the gravy inside a couple of years

As for pricing products, the market sets the price for 99% of the businesses out there - not a spreadsheet.

 

[Mad Mike]

A "predatory tactic" that seems to be particular to Walmart:
You decide to sell at Walmart. Seems like a good idea, great exposure, almost guaranteed sales, easy logistics, etc etc.
Walmart agrees to stock and retail your widgets at a wholesale price to Walmart of $20.
Then Walmart tells you they can increase sales by 10% if you drop the wholesale price to $19, this means increased production. You have to hire a couple of bodies.
All is going well, Walmart says "if you can drop the wholesale price to $17, we'll take 50% of your production.
You can swing this. Less paper work, less shipping, less packaging... less profit per unit. So YEAH OK let's do it.
Now Walmart comes back with "now we have 50% of your business you drop the wholesale unit price to $14 or we stop buying".
Got ya' by the short and curlies.
... and the ONLY way you're gonna do $14 is to move production offshore, and compromise the quality of the widgets.
US loses another small business, that pays taxes, a bunch of people lose their jobs, that used to pay income tax, your suppliers lose you as a customer....
There is Walmart and the Snapper company.

... YEAH, this is the way forward.

Walmart is a business, a big one, and easy to hate. Yet the masses go there in droves.

Not everything is sellable through discount retailers, suppliers have to pick and develop products and channels to market. Low volume high margin products aren’t what the discounter channel does well with.

For every Snapper there are a hundred companies who filled their pockets with cash thanks to Walmart. My dad is one of them, in the from 80 to 95 Walmart tripled his company’s sales.

 

[Mad Mike]

…Sucks for businesses who've always thought they were in control of the labor market, good for employees when unskilled jobs are being offered at over $20 an hour in the GTA now.

So what happens in sept when 600,000 CERBers lose their free ride and must go back to work to feed themselves? The scales tip and labor supply exceeds demand.

How many of those $20/hr jobs will evaporate when $15/ becomes the new market price?

I’ll bet some are already practicing their pitch. “Sorry buddy, I know you’ve been here almost 3 mos, we really like you but we don’t think you are a good fit in this role. We’ll be posting new jobs soon, maybe apply again for something else.”