Inflation ...

[Mad Mike]

Whats your opinion on world wide inflation? I know we've printed a **** ton but so has everyone else right?

The issue is I see is we are surpassing Italy, France and Spain territory. We don't have an economy that supports a safe haven currency, we don't have a union that props us up.

Canada is relatively productive (slightly ahead of Germany, 15% ahead of France and the UK, and 30% ahead of Spain or Italy). We have a better chance of recovery based on growth and productivity. If gov't doesn't reel in soon, it could get bad -- debtor mandated austerity like we have seen in Greece, Argentina and Spain would be incredibly painful for a long time.

I think we ****** away an opportunity to be a stronger less indebted nation. Had we not blown so much dough, out currency would strengthen and in the future a lot of interest payments would be avoided -- money that's useful elsewhere. Experts will debate how much was wasted, If I took a stab at the waste I'd say it has to be over $100billion in 2020 alone. Could be the same this year -- the Feds basically set that cash on fire by handing it out loose and fast.

If your net worth is above $1million you probably got richer during the pandemic. Below that you may have got poorer. If everyone stays their course a millionaire will get richer, everyone else poorer for the next few years.

 

[Roadghost]

What sends inflation through the roof is a weak dollar and scarcity in the domestic economy. We can no longer afford to buy foreign goods (and make no mistake, Canada relies heavily on imports) so labour unions are formed and people strike for higher wages. That is hard to do these days since private sector unions have been so efficiently busted by government and big biz. The way they have kept wages down in the last 30 years is by bringing in more desperate immigrants who will work for a handful of rice a day. The brick wall is the lack of housing. We have flooded the country with so many immigrants there is nowhere for anyone to live. We have foreign workers living 20 to a house. That proved to be extremely problematic with covid 19.

The dollar will get weaker of course as the government pumps out more print money. But right now our dollar is holding steady, mainly because the world is in the same boat. Everyone is printing money. And yes, just like in the 1970s when everyone pulled their money out of the stock market and bought material items, the same is beginning to happen now. I see a real inflation rate of about 7-8%. I'm lucky enough to work for a fortune 500 company that gives us COLA pay raises...so far. Not sure where this will all end up, but given the political choices available (they all plan to run big deficits for several years) it's not going to be good.

 

[nobbie48]

What sends inflation through the roof is a weak dollar and scarcity in the domestic economy. We can no longer afford to buy foreign goods (and make no mistake, Canada relies heavily on imports) so labour unions are formed and people strike for higher wages. That is hard to do these days since private sector unions have been so efficiently busted by government and big biz. The way they have kept wages down in the last 30 years is by bringing in more desperate immigrants who will work for a handful of rice a day. The brick wall is the lack of housing. We have flooded the country with so many immigrants there is nowhere for anyone to live. We have foreign workers living 20 to a house. That proved to be extremely problematic with covid 19.

The dollar will get weaker of course as the government pumps out more print money. But right now our dollar is holding steady, mainly because the world is in the same boat. Everyone is printing money. And yes, just like in the 1970s when everyone pulled their money out of the stock market and bought material items, the same is beginning to happen now. I see a real inflation rate of about 7-8%. I'm lucky enough to work for a fortune 500 company that gives us COLA pay raises...so far. Not sure where this will all end up, but given the political choices available (they all plan to run big deficits for several years) it's not going to be good.

Enjoy your salads while you can. A weak dollar and US droughts will mean more cole slaw and less Caesar salad.

 

[jc100]

What sends inflation through the roof is a weak dollar and scarcity in the domestic economy. We can no longer afford to buy foreign goods (and make no mistake, Canada relies heavily on imports) so labour unions are formed and people strike for higher wages. That is hard to do these days since private sector unions have been so efficiently busted by government and big biz. The way they have kept wages down in the last 30 years is by bringing in more desperate immigrants who will work for a handful of rice a day. The brick wall is the lack of housing. We have flooded the country with so many immigrants there is nowhere for anyone to live. We have foreign workers living 20 to a house. That proved to be extremely problematic with covid 19.

The dollar will get weaker of course as the government pumps out more print money. But right now our dollar is holding steady, mainly because the world is in the same boat. Everyone is printing money. And yes, just like in the 1970s when everyone pulled their money out of the stock market and bought material items, the same is beginning to happen now. I see a real inflation rate of about 7-8%. I'm lucky enough to work for a fortune 500 company that gives us COLA pay raises...so far. Not sure where this will all end up, but given the political choices available (they all plan to run big deficits for several years) it's not going to be good.

It’s not immigrants that are the issue. It’s the people paying the wages and the people building the houses and I’m betting most of those are not immigrants and I don’t see you getting mad at them.

 

[Roadghost]

It’s not immigrants that are the issue. It’s the people paying the wages and the people building the houses and I’m betting most of those are not immigrants and I don’t see you getting mad at them.

You think employers just pay higher wages out of the goodness of their hearts? They do it because they can't get anyone to work for them. Rather than pay higher wages, they demand more foreign workers. How can you not see that? Go walk into the Amazon rendering facilities - they're all underpaid foreign workers. This started with the fruit pickers on farms and it has spread through every industry in Canada. It's always the same complaint: we can't find enough 'qualified' people to do the job. What they mean is they refuse to pay a living wage and Canadians won't do the job otherwise.

Don't pretend this is all about immigrants. It is about greedy companies artificially lowering wages through unscrupulous means. Immigrants are the victims, and so are Canadians.

 

[Mad Mike]

It’s not immigrants that are the issue. It’s the people paying the wages and the people building the houses and I’m betting most of those are not immigrants and I don’t see you getting mad at them.

Agreed. Immigrants are bringing money (capital). They use that to buy things and invest in things. Those bought items (houses, cars, clothing, food etc) all contribute to the economy and jobs. Canada has a lot of room to grow, to do so we need more people and more investment. If we got those foreign dollars WITHOUT the people flowing in, the investors would be investing then pulling out profits to buy cars, houses and food in their home lands creating wealth and jobs over there.

Gov't policy related to money supply is the biggest issue. They flooded the market with cash at a time when restrictions limited where it could be spent. No vacations, no restaurants or entertainment, no expensive family outings. They dumped too much into CERB, thereby creating incentive for many not to accept work, which tightened the labor supply - how can we have 8% unemployment with employers unable to attract unskilled labor at 40% above min wage?

Dumping cash into the economy also encourages people to speculate and horde which initially drives up prices as the demand and supply mechanics kick in. This happened to lumber, containers, houses and semiconductors - if people have loose cash and see an investment opportunity they take it. One painful side effect is prices rise dramatically, then retreat however they rarely fall all the way back to the pre-cash-dump levels.

People demand more pay, more cash in the market, now the goods prices can't fall back to normal as producers bake in higher labour and raw materials cost.

Thank JT and his voodoo MMT.

 

[jc100]

You think employers just pay higher wages out of the goodness of their hearts? They do it because they can't get anyone to work for them. Rather than pay higher wages, they demand more foreign workers. How can you not see that? Go walk into the Amazon rendering facilities - they're all underpaid foreign workers. This started with the fruit pickers on farms and it has spread through every industry in Canada. It's always the same complaint: we can't find enough 'qualified' people to do the job. What they mean is they refuse to pay a living wage and Canadians won't do the job otherwise.

Don't pretend this is all about immigrants. It is about greedy companies artificially lowering wages through unscrupulous means. Immigrants are the victims, and so are Canadians.

correct…immigrants aren’t the issue. I wasn’t the one saying they were.

 

[Mad Mike]

You think employers just pay higher wages out of the goodness of their hearts? They do it because they can't get anyone to work for them. Rather than pay higher wages, they demand more foreign workers. How can you not see that? Go walk into the Amazon rendering facilities - they're all underpaid foreign workers. This started with the fruit pickers on farms and it has spread through every industry in Canada. It's always the same complaint: we can't find enough 'qualified' people to do the job. What they mean is they refuse to pay a living wage and Canadians won't do the job otherwise.

Don't pretend this is all about immigrants. It is about greedy companies artificially lowering wages through unscrupulous means. Immigrants are the victims, and so are Canadians.

I’ll bet Amazon would prefer not paying $15000yr above minimum wage for entry level workers. $1000 start bonus, $19/hr, pension plan, health benefits… that’s what they have to pay to get unskilled labour.

Their main competitor is CERB, who pays $500/week and you don’t need to show up.

I recently tried to hire unskilled at $19, 8-4:30, M-F shift, 3 weeks vacation, full health and dental and a pension plan. Nobody interested. A couple of enterprising young CERBs said $18 under the table would work.

 

[Dimitri]

4.35 weeks per month = 9% increase.

Depends how they calculated the new weekly fee.

(Monthly × 12) / 52 = no increase.

 

[jc100]

I’ll bet Amazon would prefer not paying $15000yr above minimum wage for entry level workers. $1000 start bonus, $19/hr, pension plan, health benefits… that’s what they have to pay to get unskilled labour.

Their main competitor is CERB, who pays $500/week and you don’t need to show up.

I recently tried to hire unskilled at $19, 8-4:30, M-F shift, 3 weeks vacation, full health and dental and a pension plan. Nobody interested. A couple of enterprising young CERBs said $18 under the table would work.

CERB is done in September isn’t it?

For the longest time the story trotted out in the uk was that there were too many lazy people taking dole payments instead of working and earning an honest wage. The reality was there were a few that did this but the majority of unemployed people wanted to work. It’s a basic human pride thing. The biggest issue is expectations though. Talk to my students and they want to walk into six figure salaries with managerial titles on graduating. That’s not realistic. I have no idea where this attitude comes from but their role models might be diamond draped semi talented ******** on social media and that may have something to do with it.

 

[Dimitri]

Their main competitor is CERB, who pays $500/week and you don’t need to show up.

It's the not showing up part not the money.

CERB was only $2000 a month.

$2000 / (22 × 8) = $11.36 an hour.

 

[CriticalCore]

It's the not showing up part not the money.

CERB was only $2000 a month.

$2000 / (22 × 8) = $11.36 an hour.

The average 40K job after benefits, taxes & a 4% company savings plan that matches your contribution only pays out like about 2.2-2.5K a month.

2 Grand flat for nothing minus taxes at the start of next year is really good in comparison since you don't even have to work lol.

 

[regder]

CERB is done in September isn’t it?

CERB was done in December. Replaced by CRB but you are not eligible unless you are unemployed as a direct result of Covid-19 and have not turned down an offer of employment

 

[GreyGhost]

CERB was done in December. Replaced by CRB but you are not eligible unless you are unemployed as a direct result of Covid-19 and have not turned down an offer of employment

And who is tracking turned down offers of employment? Seems good in theory but almost useless in practice.

 

[Mad Mike]

It's the not showing up part not the money.

CERB was only $2000 a month.

$2000 / (22 × 8) = $11.36 an hour.

2 mistakes, the math is 500/40=12.50. You could also argue a 9-5 week which would be 500/37.5=13.33. Or $500/1=$500/hr (for the 1 hour work it takes to apply).

The other mistake is comparing net to gross. Electricity for video games is cheaper than gas or a metro pass, taxes and other deductions. So the min wage job that pays $14.25 hr isn’t far off CERB when comparing net pay, even closer after deducting employment expenses.

The bottom line is CERB is competing with employers, and it’s so large it’s reducing the supply of labor.

 

[regder]

And who is tracking turned down offers of employment? Seems good in theory but almost useless in practice.

That's a fair point, but I'm sure the threat would dissuade the number of people on it to at least some degree.

 

[Roadghost]

I’ll bet Amazon would prefer not paying $15000yr above minimum wage for entry level workers. $1000 start bonus, $19/hr, pension plan, health benefits… that’s what they have to pay to get unskilled labour.

Their main competitor is CERB, who pays $500/week and you don’t need to show up.

I recently tried to hire unskilled at $19, 8-4:30, M-F shift, 3 weeks vacation, full health and dental and a pension plan. Nobody interested. A couple of enterprising young CERBs said $18 under the table would work.

So in a city where you can barely find a batchelor apt. for under $2000/mo, $200/wk for food, $1000/yr for basic car insurance, $70 to fill a car's tank with gas you're paying $760 before taxes (-25%) = $560/wk. and a pension 4% maybe? (like someone's going to make a career out of a $19/hr job, LOL) and you just can't understand why nobody will work for you?

The guys from India I talk to say they can make more and live better at home (and a lot of them leave). If they can't get under the table, they're not working for you, and I don't blame them. We pay $25.50/hr plus 3wks+pension+benefits and have trouble keeping people in unskilled. It's what they get at the end of the week that counts, and right now you're not paying rent.

I can't believe how many people out there just don't get it. Look at what it costs to live in Ontario, then look at what you're paying. Smell the coffee.

 

[Dimitri]

2 mistakes, the math is 500/40=12.50. You could also argue a 9-5 week which would be 500/37.5=13.33. Or $500/1=$500/hr (for the 1 hour work it takes to apply).

It is $2,000 a month.

There are 22 business days a month on average (excluding stat holidays as you are still paid for them). With 8 hours a day, that's 176 working/paid hours a month on average.

 

[Mad Mike]

So in a city where you can barely find a batchelor apt. for under $2000/mo, $200/wk for food, $1000/yr for basic car insurance, $70 to fill a car's tank with gas you're paying $760 before taxes (-25%) = $560/wk. and a pension 4% maybe? (like someone's going to make a career out of a $19/hr job, LOL) and you just can't understand why nobody will work for you?

The guys from India I talk to say they can make more and live better at home (and a lot of them leave). If they can't get under the table, they're not working for you, and I don't blame them. We pay $25.50/hr plus 3wks+pension+benefits and have trouble keeping people in unskilled. It's what they get at the end of the week that counts, and right now you're not paying rent.

I can't believe how many people out there just don't get it. Look at what it costs to live in Ontario, then look at what you're paying. Smell the coffee.

So what’s your solution? I can move production to QC and have lots of labor at $15/hr. Or Indiana for $9/hr. How does that help anyone living in Ontario?

I believe unemployment would drop by half and prevailing min wage in the GTA would settle around $16 if CERB got kicked to the curb.

As for the car, an $800 mo food budget and $2000 apt - probably not on min wage anywhere.

 

[Mad Mike]

It is $2,000 a month.

There are 22 business days a month on average (excluding stat holidays as you are still paid for them). With 8 hours a day, that's 176 working/paid hours a month on average.

CERB is weekly, not monthly. Also the average week varies by profession, lots of companies and govt use a 37.5 hr week.

Anyway, your trying to push off the main point - hair splitting on pennies and hours is as meaningless as a big screen kiss. The point here is the number of people unemployed gets inflated when you pay people to not work. That’s why we have a gazillion openings yet 8% of the workforce is content sitting on the sidelines collecting $500/week.