COVID and the housing market

If you want to put a tinfoil hat on, government can make some stupid argument about gold that immediately causes you huge issues converting what you have into something useful.
A gram of gold is worth about $150 or ten Big Mac combos. What kind of scale and file does one carry to mete out the correct amount from a one ounce bar? Don't sneeze.
 
I've been watching the used condo market and it doesn't seem to be the disaster the budding prebuilds are in. The one building I'm tracking is definitely down but not the half price sales the prebuild buys seem to be at. It has to be noted these are not the 400 SF starters but rather 3+2 livable units.
 
My friends are about to list their house for 1.8M and think they’ll sell in a jiffy…

I kept my mouth shut as there are nicer houses for less money standing for months…and they felt offering their house to me for 1.85M was a steal as that’s what they were expecting after commissions.

I may toss in an offer when it languishes on the market for a few months.
 
Houses around me average two point four million , towns are one point two . I would not want the mortgage on any of them , but I’m in the minority. Place across the street went for two point eight . I like the numbers but I don’t see the value .


Sent from my iPhone using GTAMotorcycle.com
They asked me if we're still interested and I point blank told them...

'I love your house, and we really want it. But I'm not living on bread and water for the next 10 years just so I can have it'

$2500-3300/month MORE than my current 2k/month mortgage...(depending on our sale price, interest rate, etc).

They also offered a vendor take back and I refused as I'm not going to cripple myself financially for the pleasure of a larger house, smaller yard, and a pool. Thankfully my wife agreed.
 
My friends are about to list their house for 1.8M and think they’ll sell in a jiffy…

I kept my mouth shut as there are nicer houses for less money standing for months…and they felt offering their house to me for 1.85M was a steal as that’s what they were expecting after commissions.

I may toss in an offer when it languishes on the market for a few months.
The killer is what you will get for yours. I'm in the sell first camp, knowing what I have in my pocket. The downside is hopefully finding what I want for what's in my pockets.

I'm also cynical. With that much money at stake, trust no one to fall on their sword.
 
My boat crew guy just bought his first house , Aldershot , he’s twenty nine and getting married next yr . I said geez , good start in a nice neighborhood . Turns out he and his brother own two rentals in Sault St Marie . He did a spread sheet of where rentals are underserved and consistent and hit on SSM . He bought at twenty one and paid just about one hundred k per house , has had long term renters in both houses.
I mentioned he seemed smarter than I thought , he laughed and said “ I crew on your race boat, your the dumdum that owns boats instead of rental property “ . I couldn’t argue .


Sent from my iPhone using GTAMotorcycle.com
 
My boat crew guy just bought his first house , Aldershot , he’s twenty nine and getting married next yr . I said geez , good start in a nice neighborhood . Turns out he and his brother own two rentals in Sault St Marie . He did a spread sheet of where rentals are underserved and consistent and hit on SSM . He bought at twenty one and paid just about one hundred k per house , has had long term renters in both houses.
I mentioned he seemed smarter than I thought , he laughed and said “ I crew on your race boat, your the dumdum that owns boats instead of rental property “ . I couldn’t argue .


Sent from my iPhone using GTAMotorcycle.com
Still bargains in northern Ontario. I’m finishing up a 850sq’ flip in Timmins. Bought for $38 (land value, wrecked by squatters). Gutted, $20k materials, $20k in labor and it’s like new.

Plan was to rent, but one of the labourers working on the job wants it, 6 figure gain isn’t bad for 2mo work.

Quick but not easy money. I never knew retirement was this hard!


IMG_1413.jpegIMG_1417.jpeg
 
Why doesn't the laborer find his own he can buy for 40k and fix it up himself to save six figures? Not readily available?
Maybe. Also issues with capital. My guess is MM bypassed the banks and self-financed much of this project. Banks don't like to finance crack houses. Once it's complete, they are happy to loan money for a conventional property. Now, if labourer proved to be good and reliable, MM could help labourer finance future flips. Maybe even a vtb mortgage to keep the pressure on as screwing up a flip could result in the loss of your house.
 
I’m amazed how in an area where you can buy a ninety nine k house anyone is renting but you never know the other guys circumstances. When I bought a house in rural Arizona and paid one fifteen thousand cash the real estate agent was stunned , she hadn’t seen any body do that . It wouldn’t buy a single car garage here . Every one has a different bar to jump over .


Sent from my iPhone using GTAMotorcycle.com
 
Maybe. Also issues with capital. My guess is MM bypassed the banks and self-financed much of this project. Banks don't like to finance crack houses. Once it's complete, they are happy to loan money for a conventional property. Now, if labourer proved to be good and reliable, MM could help labourer finance future flips. Maybe even a vtb mortgage to keep the pressure on as screwing up a flip could result in the loss of your house.
You got it. For a project like this you need $100k in cash as you can’t finance a condemned property (the crackheads cut out the wiring and plumbing fur scrap metal, the also burned the kitchen doors and trim in a camp stove for heat).

I’ve done a couple of VTBs - good way to get top dollar for a starter home. I’ve also heard some folks that do VTBs record the sale at 100% of VTB amount and take a cash down payment. Supposed to be some tax advantages in doing that.
 
I’m amazed how in an area where you can buy a ninety nine k house anyone is renting but you never know the other guys circumstances. When I bought a house in rural Arizona and paid one fifteen thousand cash the real estate agent was stunned , she hadn’t seen any body do that . It wouldn’t buy a single car garage here . Every one has a different bar to jump over .


Sent from my iPhone using GTAMotorcycle.com
I’m doing these in Timmins. A starter home is $180-250 in decent condition. That rents for $2k/mo.

There is a large transient workforce - mining and healthcare are the 2 biggest employers of high paying transient workers. Also a lot of college teachers, hydro workers and road builders.

These folks don’t want to live here permanently. They’re here for the money, then on to the next mine, hospital, or highway project.

Prices for houses have doubled in the last 4 years and are still lower than the cost of a new build. And there is near zero vacancy as landlords have moved from leases to AirBnB to mitigate LTB risks.
 
Why doesn't the laborer find his own he can buy for 40k and fix it up himself to save six figures? Not readily available?
$40k deals aren’t hanging on trees - usually mortgage foreclosures repos or shot-in-the-dark tax sales (I don’t touch the latter).
 
A guy in north bay buys an old church and plans to divide it into dwellings for his kids. Church has been there for almost 40 years with no issues. Endless string of bureaucratic studies, permits and fees ensue. The biggest obstacle is conservation authority says he needs to raise the slab on grade floor with in-floor heating as current regs require it to be higher. Wtaf. Bill 5 will be used for a lot of evil but it will also stop some of this outrageous behaviour. The structure exists and has for 40 years. He wants to change interior partitions. F off conservation authority.

 
A guy in north bay buys an old church and plans to divide it into dwellings for his kids. Church has been there for almost 40 years with no issues. Endless string of bureaucratic studies, permits and fees ensue. The biggest obstacle is conservation authority says he needs to raise the slab on grade floor with in-floor heating as current regs require it to be higher. Wtaf. Bill 5 will be used for a lot of evil but it will also stop some of this outrageous behaviour. The structure exists and has for 40 years. He wants to change interior partitions. F off conservation authority.

The core issue is the building may be (or is) in a floodplain and---according to the article---the local conservation authority is very slow to respond due to internal issues. The conservation authority likely controls the floodplain there--not the city.

It is not uncommon to have existing buildings built in a floodplain. There are lots of examples, they may have been built before the area was declared a floodplain (this could even be a house). They may have been built with permission because the original purpose did not include housing or was somehow otherwise exempt. If for example you own a house in a floodplain, it is typically grandfathered but like anything with codes, any major reno requires the building to be brought up to new codes--and good luck getting permission. Not much different than say a fire code, he has to bring it up to current standards, doesn't matter it has not burned down in 40 years...

On the flip side, 100 year flood comes and he will be crying why did they let me build here, or worse yet the person he flips sells it to... The likely solutions are a hard no or a cut and fill on the property which yes may require the structure to be raised on top of the fill to protect it. I read it as he did not do his homework before buying and is now crying, what should have been buyer beware. Can't say for North Bay but as an example the TRCA has online maps...
 
Last edited:
The core issue is the building may be (or is) in a floodplain and---according to the article---the local conservation authority is very slow to respond due to internal issues. The conservation authority likely controls the floodplain there--not the city.

It is not uncommon to have buildings built in a floodplain. There are lots of examples, they may have been built before the area was declared a floodplain (this could even be a house). They may have been built with permission because the original purpose did not include housing or was somehow otherwise exempt. If for example you own a house in a floodplain, it is typically grandfathered but like anything with codes, any major reno requires the building to be brought up to new codes--and good luck getting permission. Not much different than say a fire code, he has to bring it up to current standards, doesn't matter it has not burned down in 40 years...

On the flip side, 100 year flood comes and he will be crying why did they let me build here, or the person he sells it to... The likely solutions are a hard no or a cut and fill on the property which yes may require the structure to be raised on top of the fill to protect it. I read it as he did not do his homework before buying and is now crying, what should have been buyer beware. Can't say for North Bay but as an example the TRCA has online maps...
I have no problem with CA identifying that building is on a floodplain, nor any problem with difficulty getting insurance after that notification. That's the owners problem for failing to conduct due diligence. Once the building is up, I think conservation authority should have little authority other than duty to notify. This is very unlikely to be life safety, this is protecting a fifedom. Raising a building that has existed for decades for a theoretical flood based on maps that are largely BS is insane. It also has no effect on conservation.
 
Back
Top Bottom