COVID and the housing market

FWIW I bought my house in Toronto on Liberation Day (thanks Trump!).

Downtown Toronto specific - Homes for peeps in the 35-50 year old age bracket in great condition are few and far between; they are still going into multiple offer scenarios and fetching top dollar. Neighbourhood specific.

Also for what it's worth; the renovation costs are INSANE. Good luck to anyone thinking they will ever get a decent home under 7 figures. Windows alone of my home are $30K .. and that's double pane...

IMO the condo market is going to rebound hard and fast... young peeps are cool with smaller spaces and literally have zero options... The last glut of supply is working it's way through the system and everything going forward is rental specific ...

Stay safe out there kiddos.
I agree with most of your points except for the condo prices. At the peak they were about $1400/sq ft and then you have ~$2/sq ft condo fee to further crush your cash flow. That makes a turd 500 sq ft condo $700K (with 10% down, payment is ~$3500/mo (~$2400 to interest) plus ~$1000/mo condo fee). So expenses of close to $4000/mo to own or you can rent for $2800. That's a no-brainer, Renting is better than owning that steaming pile.

If you can get a condo for well under 500K, maybe it makes sense but even that is a stretch.
 
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I agree with most of your points except for the condo prices. At the peak they were about $1400/sq ft and then you have ~$2/sq ft condo fee to further crush your cash flow. That makes a turd 500 sq ft condo $700K (with 10% down, payment is ~$3500/mo (~$2400 to interest) plus ~$1000/mo condo fee). So expenses of close to $4000/mo to own or you can rent for $2800. That's a no-brainer, Renting is better than owning that steaming pile.

If you can get a condo for well under 500K, maybe it makes sense but even that is a stretch.
Daughter leases a 450sq’ condo at King & Spadina in a nice building — costs her $1800/ mo +$150 for parking. Landlord hasn’t raised rents in 4 years. She couldn’t buy it for the price of rent.
 
Daughter leases a 450sq’ condo at King & Spadina in a nice building — costs her $1800/ mo +$150 for parking. Landlord hasn’t raised rents in 4 years. She couldn’t buy it for the price of rent.
Bingo.

Rent raised once in 9 years here. +$50/month didn't even bat an eyelash.
 
Bingo.

Rent raised once in 9 years here. +$50/month didn't even bat an eyelash.
I do the same with my rental properties. Pay the rent and I leave you alone. I figure it costs 2-3 mos rent to change a tenant, so keeping a good one by forgiving $500 bucks a year in increases is a no brainer.

But it gets better… Airbnb. I just converted 2 of our places from rentals to Airbnb. I was getting $1500/months on leases to tenants, Airbnb by the month is… stupid money, almost 3x and very little risk.
 
I do the same with my rental properties. Pay the rent and I leave you alone. I figure it costs 2-3 mos rent to change a tenant, so keeping a good one by forgiving $500 bucks a year in increases is a no brainer.

But it gets better… Airbnb. I just converted 2 of our places from rentals to Airbnb. I was getting $1500/months on leases to tenants, Airbnb by the month is… stupid money, almost 3x and very little risk.
Except now you owe hst on the sale price if you ever sell.

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Except now you owe hst on the sale price if you ever sell.

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Only if you sell it as an Airbnb going Airbnb concern. Live in the home for a short period and it reverts to a residential property. This is a concern for operators whe run their places like a hotelier, not mom and pop operations.
 
Nothing but doom and gloom from YouTube wannabees. Hamilton is getting trashed but a check of things around Gage Park shows most sales 10% or less below list. Condos could be different than detached.

One property could be an exception in that the new owners got into a bidding war on the cheapest house on the street. Now what they paid would be a good start bidding point for one of the bigger, nicer places. Adding to their situation, if they took on a five-year mortgage it'll come due next year. It could be painful.

In Etobicoke Centre sales are IMO healthy with time to think about offers without bidding wars. Prices tend to be close to list with the occasional one over list. A lot of them get massive renos before the owner steps foot inside the door. So close to list and add 50% for the reno. Must be nice.
 
Nothing but doom and gloom from YouTube wannabees. Hamilton is getting trashed but a check of things around Gage Park shows most sales 10% or less below list. Condos could be different than detached.

One property could be an exception in that the new owners got into a bidding war on the cheapest house on the street. Now what they paid would be a good start bidding point for one of the bigger, nicer places. Adding to their situation, if they took on a five-year mortgage it'll come due next year. It could be painful.

In Etobicoke Centre sales are IMO healthy with time to think about offers without bidding wars. Prices tend to be close to list with the occasional one over list. A lot of them get massive renos before the owner steps foot inside the door. So close to list and add 50% for the reno. Must be nice.
Sales are slow around me. One house was listed for 45 days and then cut price by more than 25%. I have no idea if they are trying for the same price from a bidding war or if they have just acknowledged the inevitable and are now priced to clear their mortgage before they default.
 
Couple homes around me seem to be sitting on the market . The ask is pretty ambitious, but you can always come down. I think there is so much uncertainty right now with employment, mortgage rates and inflation, many buyers are just too nervous to dive in.


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Couple homes around me seem to be sitting on the market . The ask is pretty ambitious, but you can always come down. I think there is so much uncertainty right now with employment, mortgage rates and inflation, many buyers are just too nervous to dive in.


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I think the Oakville/Burlington area might be correcting now, growing inventories of homes listed coupled with big reductions on new builds in vontinue to draw down prices.

High demand neighbourhoods with a bougie addresses might hold. That’s a small number of homes.
 
We've had 2 more houses pop up in our area, priced as per COVID heights are still ongoing.

Friends of ours are still sitting on the market, their parents are about to list for 1.55 even though everyone (including their agent) is telling them 1.2-1.3 is more realistic in this market.

'We know what we have, and we don't need to come down'...

Mind you both of them have paid off houses so it's not a huge concern not selling too quickly.
 
We have looked in a few houses lately last one we looked at is down to 2 million original list a year and a half ago was 2.5 they paid 2.6 in 2022. Nice big house indoor pool etc etc but sitting on the market forever.

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Those are the ones where you throw a lowball at them. Nobody knows how close they are to collapse. Maybe 1.5 clears the mortgage and lets them walk away and start again with a decent credit score. If the bank forecloses, they won't get more money and their credit will be trashed to add to their problems.
 
Those are the ones where you throw a lowball at them. Nobody knows how close they are to collapse. Maybe 1.5 clears the mortgage and lets them walk away and start again with a decent credit score. If the bank forecloses, they won't get more money and their credit will be trashed to add to their problems.
My biggest fear would be getting it then I have to sell some other properties to move there

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Those are the ones where you throw a lowball at them. Nobody knows how close they are to collapse. Maybe 1.5 clears the mortgage and lets them walk away and start again with a decent credit score. If the bank forecloses, they won't get more money and their credit will be trashed to add to their problems.
These are also the ones that need to be gone over very carefully before making (or clearing conditions on) an offer because money troubles also usually means differed maintenance... or hidden issues are the reason they are selling at a big loss.

Sort of like buying a used BMW after three other owners.
 
These are also the ones that need to be gone over very carefully before making (or clearing conditions on) an offer because money troubles also usually means differed maintenance... or hidden issues are the reason they are selling at a big loss.

Sort of like buying a used BMW after three other owners.
From the looks of things this guy isn't having any money trouble New Ferrari in the garage apparently he's moved to Toronto looks like money isn't an issue. There's been a bunch of money put into the house since they bought it 22 as well.

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My biggest fear would be getting it then I have to sell some other properties to move there

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If you run the property on Onland, you can see if there is a lien. I suspect (but don't know for sure) that it will tell you initial balance. Maybe you get lucky and loan amount is in the ballpark of your liquid assets. It's worth investing <$100 to take a swing.

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Nevermind. New ferrari would be sold before house.

EDIT:
I checked my onland documentation. I can see values for my purchase and lien. I can't see any previous values. I don't know whether that is because they have been removed or because I wasn't a party to those transactions.
 
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We've had 2 more houses pop up in our area, priced as per COVID heights are still ongoing.

Friends of ours are still sitting on the market, their parents are about to list for 1.55 even though everyone (including their agent) is telling them 1.2-1.3 is more realistic in this market.

'We know what we have, and we don't need to come down'...

Mind you both of them have paid off houses so it's not a huge concern not selling too quickly.
Wishful thinking can be expensive. A friend in rural Quebec may have gotten bad advice from an agent and listed high for a small entry level home with low curb appeal.

After a months of no interest there was a price drop, more months with a couple of viewings, another price drop and it's still sitting vacant.

It's probably costing a grand a month to maintain with colder temps about to kick in heating costs and the listing has gone stale. If it doesn't sell until spring the out-of-pocket carrying costs would be brutal.

When one has to lowball a highball the first few low ballers often miss out so why waste the energy.
 
Those are the ones where you throw a lowball at them. Nobody knows how close they are to collapse. Maybe 1.5 clears the mortgage and lets them walk away and start again with a decent credit score. If the bank forecloses, they won't get more money and their credit will be trashed to add to their problems.
Inflation will make you rich so buy the most expensive place you can, leveraging a huge mortgage.

If rates go up, prices go down and any equity gets sucked down the drain followed by foreclosure costs.

First time buyers get hit the hardest as their down payment is the only equity. A move-up buyer brings in equity from a previous house so although they may have similar mortgage payments the equity is different.
 
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