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More on the SpaceX / openai / X IPO


opinion unchanged: NOPE

At the moment I'm sitting on a couple of positions that have call options sold against them which are expiring at various dates later this month, and they're all basically right at the money (close to the strike prices). No debt. If they drop or stay below the strike prices I'm okay hanging onto them for the dividends. If they get called away (putting me in a cash position - which will lock in a capital gain) ... that's what I haven't thought through yet.
 
Brian P said:
More on the SpaceX / openai / X IPO


opinion unchanged: NOPE

At the moment I'm sitting on a couple of positions that have call options sold against them which are expiring at various dates later this month, and they're all basically right at the money (close to the strike prices). No debt. If they drop or stay below the strike prices I'm okay hanging onto them for the dividends. If they get called away (putting me in a cash position - which will lock in a capital gain) ... that's what I haven't thought through yet.
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Unicorns and fairy dust is what keeps up Tesla, SpaceX and anything else that Musk touches.

That guy dies/disappears...it's all over for a very large amount of people that think they're immune.
 
Brian P said:
More on the SpaceX / openai / X IPO


opinion unchanged: NOPE

At the moment I'm sitting on a couple of positions that have call options sold against them which are expiring at various dates later this month, and they're all basically right at the money (close to the strike prices). No debt. If they drop or stay below the strike prices I'm okay hanging onto them for the dividends. If they get called away (putting me in a cash position - which will lock in a capital gain) ... that's what I haven't thought through yet.
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Here is an excellent analysis of SpaceX valution. AD is a smart cookie. Not that anything he says will (nor should) change your philosophy on this pile.


TL: DW
~13B shares in play
IPO expected to raise ~$80B
Musk controls 85% of votes
Estimated value $1.22T
Share price at estimated value $100
Share price at IPO $135 (~35% over-valued)
He's not buying nor shorting at IPO as he believes price will be driven by hype and hype is fickle and doesn't care about intrinsic value so it could go either direction .
 
Read another review of the ipo for SpaceX that showed the majority of the valuation is in AI associated business for which SpaceX is not known. Only a small proportion of the valuation is attributed to launch capabilities and communications (Starlink). Further it argued that the structure of the company gives Musk total control over everything and none to shareholders. Shares like that are usually discounted but not in this case so these are “brand” shares essentially.
 
So what is Tesla/SaceX worth if Elon Musk ODs or dies in a plane crash?
He is 54 and that puts him in the high risk of death range for men 45 to 65.
 
guzzirider said:
So what is Tesla/SaceX worth if Elon Musk ODs or dies in a plane crash?
He is 54 and that puts him in the high risk of death range for men 45 to 65.
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Who knows. Incredible concentration risk on anything related to him as much of the price is tied to him personally. Musk dying would have the stocks quickly revert to intrinsic value and that would be brutal for those invested. I don't own anything he controls (outside of index funds) nor do I plan to. As Asrath said in the video above, there is likely a price I would consider investing in an EM company but those prices are well below current ask so I don't.
 
Don't want to own it because the valuations are insane; don't want to be short it because private investors (cult members?) are insane, don't want anything to do with it because regulators have been bought off and are insane.

I have now seen several independent-media sources which are all saying more-or-less the same as what's described in the last several posts above.
 
guzzirider said:
So what is Tesla/SaceX worth if Elon Musk ODs or dies in a plane crash?
He is 54 and that puts him in the high risk of death range for men 45 to 65.
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It’s worth nothing.

Tesla and SpaceX stock valuations are running on nothing more than false promises and Elons fart dust.

Many comments / posts I read are all ‘I’m investing in Elons vision’….

So basically….he is the stock.
 
mimico_polak said:
It’s worth nothing.

Tesla and SpaceX stock valuations are running on nothing more than false promises and Elons fart dust.

Many comments / posts I read are all ‘I’m investing in Elons vision’….

So basically….he is the stock.
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It's not quite that close to vaporware. Watch the video I posted above. SpaceX has real businesses, revenue and customers and is worth something. At one point, many people predicted that AAPL would not survive without Steve Jobs. The market cap is up a lot more than 10x from that point.
 
GreyGhost said:
It's not quite that close to vaporware. Watch the video I posted above. SpaceX has real businesses, revenue and customers and is worth something. At one point, many people predicted that AAPL would not survive without Steve Jobs. The market cap is up a lot more than 10x from that point.
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They do but that’s not where the majority of the valuation is. It’s in relatively untested (for SpaceX) AI crap that’s heavily interwoven with his social media platform.

It seems like if you just whisper those two letters these days investors wet their pants and throw dollars at you.
 
I've bought an ETF on the Nasdaq recently hoping all the new AI IPO's coming (as well as SpaceX) will drive it higher. Fingers crossed the lunacy continues.
 
Looking like much of the money to buy into this IPO is being pulled from crypto. I'll often scalp an IPO on opening but I'm staying away from this one. I'll see how it looks after it consolidates to buy some.
A market pullback is more likely to happen later this year so I'm keeping funds available for that.
 
Hardwrkr13 said:
A market pullback is more likely to happen later this year
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I have Keynes rattling around in my head: "Markets will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent".

Lots to be bearish about these days, yet stocks seem to be climbing that proverbial Wall of Worry faster than Spiderman with ants in his underpants. 🤷‍♂️
 
Hardwrkr13 said:
Looking like much of the money to buy into this IPO is being pulled from crypto. I'll often scalp an IPO on opening but I'm staying away from this one. I'll see how it looks after it consolidates to buy some.
A market pullback is more likely to happen later this year so I'm keeping funds available for that.
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Reddit is 1 I missed out on. $50 IPO and now at $172 with a high of $282.
 
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