Elephant in the Covid room | Page 87 | GTAMotorcycle.com

Elephant in the Covid room

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GreyGhost

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Just to muddy the waters, I got the AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine. Under the same umbrella when people are reporting on adverse reactions is Covishield Covid-19 which uses the same concept as AZ but is manufactured by the Serum Institute of India. I haven't found anywhere that said if the formulation was supposed to be identical.

According to page 3 of the AEFI summary linked below, Covidshield rate of serious adverse effects is an order of magnitude higher than AZ. Both have hundreds of thousands of doses administered so that is a reasonable sample size. AZ has the lowest rate of serious reactions of all of the vaccines. Even covishield is only 5 per 100,000 so not something I would be concerned about as odds of a serious illness if (probably when is more accurate) I catch covid are vastly higher than 5/100K.

 

GreyGhost

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It's been my observation that construction sites have the lowest percentage of actual adherence to even the most basic covid precautions...so yeah, doesn't surprise me either.
It's a lot like the safety inspectors. People have things nearby to put on in case the alarm is raised that tickets are on the horizon. I wear a white hard hat just to watch the rats scatter as I normally only visit a site once so they have no idea who I am.
 

Superveloce

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PrivatePilot

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The big problem in the USA won't be vaccine supply. It will be vaccine hesitancy, and the signs of it have been showing up already for the last few weeks. I HOPE that improves over time, because we can't get out of our situation until the USA also gets out of theirs.

It's already hitting there and politics isn't helping.

But this changes frequently. If you looked at this at the end of Feb, the forecast from Gov Can was 84-million doses by Sept from Moderna and Phizer. Clearly they were woefully off on that forecast

As the USA reaches the point where supply needs drop drastically (and as mentioned, they're already there) supply for us will not unsurprisingly increase dramatically. It's not a coincidence that our deliveries basically doubled from 1m/week to 2m/week starting this week, and will grow even more by the end of the month.

Canadian gullibility: Even if a person has a medical condition they can't enter a store without a mask.

Tell that to the 20 year old kid monitoring the door and screening people if he really wants to have that fight. Or the convenience store owner who's tired of being yelled at by the self-absorbed few and doesn't want to get dragged through the mud online and have an army of people post negative reviews for his business when some stupid anti-masker posts to his "army" on social media that his feelings were hurt.

you would probably be wrong with that impression, a lot of NFLnders went home after the oil bust.

Just read this article today. They're still going back and forth. Price of oil is up pretty significantly. The patch is getting busy again.


I wear a white hard hat just to watch the rats scatter

I used to have a white one in my truck. I had a site super tell me to knock it off once as his phone wouldn't stop ringing when they saw me coming through the gate every day at one site I delivered to regularly for a while lol.
 

jc100

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That wasn't the focus on my post. the focus was to make awareness that not all things are perfect and to be trusted


Better not get cancer, asthma or a renal disease. The top selling drugs from Astra Zeneca.

This isn’t a fly by night company.
 

Brian P

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Vaccination status, information source Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research

As of right now, for "at least one dose", USA 44.11% (up 0.14% since yesterday), Canada 34.22% (up 0.58% since yesterday). We are now less than 10% behind the USA by this metric.

The vaccination numbers in Canada (and specifically Ontario) have slowed down the last few days, but we know a lot of that is because the pharmacies have mostly run out of AstraZeneca, and Moderna's last shipment was a smaller one, and last week was the last 1-million-ish-dose-per-week Pfizer shipment. This week's 2-million-and-change shipment was yesterday and Moderna's 1-million-dose shipment is supposed to land on Canadian soil tomorrow. These will both take a couple of days to get split up and sent out to local distribution points.

Three million doses is enough to give a first dose to almost 8% of the Canadian population. Let's see how long it takes to get that done.
 

Mad Mike

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It's been my observation that construction sites have the lowest percentage of actual adherence to even the most basic covid precautions...so yeah, doesn't surprise me either.
Everyone standing in small circles chatting, sharing time on the on the same leaning shovel without sanitizing the handle, passing a hoolies around... what would you expect?
 

Priller

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Data coming out of the UK is looking very promising:

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

Considering how much higher their AZ uptake is than most of the rest of the world (the 'Oxford vaccine', rule Britannia, etc), combined with their significant population with connections to India, I would say these numbers bode very well for us if we can catch up. Israel is also well under 100 new cases per day and one or two deaths. If only we could stop making vaccines a political issue on this side of the Atlantic...

As for construction sites here, I'm really surprised outbreaks like that aren't more common. Even big quality GC's (not scummy residential developers) who are so nuts about safety paperwork are shockingly lax on actual site enforcement. We're doing our best, but it's constant work nagging guys to wear masks and distance when fellow subs right next to them are doing none of the above...
 

Evoex

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unbelievable, what a tragedy.

if anyone has family and friends there my heart breaks for them.
 

Mad Mike

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Vaccination status, information source Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research

As of right now, for "at least one dose", USA 44.11% (up 0.14% since yesterday), Canada 34.22% (up 0.58% since yesterday). We are now less than 10% behind the USA by this metric.

The vaccination numbers in Canada (and specifically Ontario) have slowed down the last few days, but we know a lot of that is because the pharmacies have mostly run out of AstraZeneca, and Moderna's last shipment was a smaller one, and last week was the last 1-million-ish-dose-per-week Pfizer shipment. This week's 2-million-and-change shipment was yesterday and Moderna's 1-million-dose shipment is supposed to land on Canadian soil tomorrow. These will both take a couple of days to get split up and sent out to local distribution points.

Three million doses is enough to give a first dose to almost 8% of the Canadian population. Let's see how long it takes to get that done.
II have been hopeful that every Canadian could get dosed fast and that we can get back to normal soon. Those hopes have been dashed repeatedly, although I still remain hopeful. My wish is that the Govt of Canada would publish realistic forecasts AND THEN MEET THEM. My feeling is they are providing 'feel good' forecasts they know they can't meet simply to keep the to keep the heat off.

Hopefully the USA's demand will start dwindling and we will get more of their production.
 

Priller

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unbelievable, what a tragedy.

if anyone has family and friends there my heart breaks for them.
I shudder to think what the true numbers are. Frankly, I'm very surprised India didn't get hit hard in the first wave, considering how difficult social distancing is to do in many parts of the country. They have a commonality with the US and Brazil, too, in that they have a PM more interested in his own popularity and showing off than he is in science or saving lives.
 

Brian P

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Vaccines on the ground means it's too late for the shipment to not arrive :) The Moderna shipment is evidently en route right now.

I hope for the Americans' sake that their demand doesn't drop this early. Israel has a little over 60% vaccination coverage, and I understand that things are pretty much back to normal there, and case numbers (and deaths) are very low. The UK has something over 50% coverage, and case and death numbers are pretty low compared to what they once were, but they still have some restrictions in place (scheduled to be phased out over the next 6 weeks or so) - but their vaccine coverage is slowly and steadily increasing, so one would think that it should work out okay. The USA is not there yet. It does appear that having 40-ish-% coverage is enough to stop case numbers from rapidly increasing, but not enough to really put a stop to them. USA daily deaths are stubbornly near 700 - 800 per day and have been in that range for the last month. That's a lot less than what it once was, but to look at this another way ... In an average year, 2.8 million people die there, that's about 7600 per day ... if sustained, their current covid19 death rate would be about 10% of that, and in the long term, that's like reducing life expectancy by 10% (about 8 years). They need to do better than that.
 

Brian P

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I shudder to think what the true numbers are. Frankly, I'm very surprised India didn't get hit hard in the first wave, considering how difficult social distancing is to do in many parts of the country. They have a commonality with the US and Brazil, too, in that they have a PM more interested in his own popularity and showing off than he is in science or saving lives.

I've heard estimates that in some areas (not the whole country), it's thought that a third of the population is currently infected. There is no way the reported case or death numbers are anywhere close to reality. The health care system has no hope of keeping up, patients who aren't rich (i.e. most of them) have no chance of receiving proper treatment. This is what happens when this virus runs rampant. This is what it looks like to reach "herd immunity" the hard way. What a terribly sad situation.
 

Priller

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The UK has something over 50% coverage, and case and death numbers are pretty low compared to what they once were, but they still have some restrictions in place (scheduled to be phased out over the next 6 weeks or so) - but their vaccine coverage is slowly and steadily increasing, so one would think that it should work out okay.
According to the above link, the UK is at 65.8% with one dose and 29.7% with two, only factoring in population of 18+. It's climbing at about 0.2-0.3% per day. They're really doing well, especially considering they were the worst in Europe for a good stretch...
 

Brian P

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According to the above link, the UK is at 65.8% with one dose and 29.7% with two, only factoring in population of 18+. It's climbing at about 0.2-0.3% per day. They're really doing well, especially considering they were the worst in Europe for a good stretch...

The UK government site is relative to "eligible adults" (18+) whereas the OurWorldInData charts are relative to "entire population", which confuzzes comparisons between them. "Eligible adults" is +/- 80% of total population. Israel has probably reached ~80% of eligible adults, which comprise ~80% of total population, thus low-sixties % of total population. I understand that Israel next wants to make the vaccine (Pfizer) available to teenagers, and they're thinking that this will ensure that they are past the mysterious "herd immunity" threshold, whatever it happens to be.

The UK is headed towards reaching that 80%-of-adults around the same time as they plan to withdraw all public health restrictions except mask-wearing recommendations (mid June).
 
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