COVID and the housing market

I’m no real estate investment guru , but I sense if supply outstrips demand , it’s not what you can consider an investment in the traditional sense . When you need to sell other assets or use other cash flow to prop up the “investment “ and cover its debt , and there is no sunshine on the horizon. Whoops . It’s not housing, it was fun easy money for investors. And now it’s not .


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My mortgage broker gal pal told me a story of a couple of her clients . One had a ‘spec’ house that he bought with the minimum down , was promptly under water when he could not rent it for his monthly mortgage, he failed to pay two years taxes and in the middle took a twenty k loan to fix some mess with the house . He thought it was a personal loan but in the fine print it was tied to the property ( yes seems he’s an idiot) He gets it listed and sold , one twenty k under his purchase price , he thinks I’ll get out from under this mess and break even and stop bleeding . Nope , lawyer says property can’t close unless he drops in a cheque for about thirty K , needs to clear the mortgage which now includes the twenty k loan . Somewhere in the middle are the outstanding taxes .


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My mortgage broker gal pal told me a story of a couple of her clients . One had a ‘spec’ house that he bought with the minimum down , was promptly under water when he could not rent it for his monthly mortgage, he failed to pay two years taxes and in the middle took a twenty k loan to fix some mess with the house . He thought it was a personal loan but in the fine print it was tied to the property ( yes seems he’s an idiot) He gets it listed and sold , one twenty k under his purchase price , he thinks I’ll get out from under this mess and break even and stop bleeding . Nope , lawyer says property can’t close unless he drops in a cheque for about thirty K , needs to clear the mortgage which now includes the twenty k loan . Somewhere in the middle are the outstanding taxes .


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Wow...

I've heard of this happening, and can see it recently in our areas where houses have started selling...but for WAY under what they were listed for an extended period.

The sellers of the house are fixated at 1.6M for their house...we're fixed at 1.5M max as that's what that house is worth TO US.

Hopefully the friendship survives this one, because they're great people, but time will tell.

A nicer house on their street, fully done up, just sold for 1.5M, after sitting on the market for 2.5-3 years (started off silly at 3.1M (would need to confirm with House Sigma)) and then kept dropping and dropping until it listed at 1.6 and sold for 1.5.
 
The friendship should survive just fine , if everything is thinking like a grownup. They shouldn’t lean on you to finance their dream , and you shouldn’t over extend to make them happy .
I’ve never been one to risk or over leverage the principal residence. I’ll dig out of other holes ( I’ve been in them) but I like to know the roof over my head is safe .


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I’m no real estate investment guru , but I sense if supply outstrips demand , it’s not what you can consider an investment in the traditional sense . When you need to sell other assets or use other cash flow to prop up the “investment “ and cover its debt , and there is no sunshine on the horizon. Whoops . It’s not housing, it was fun easy money for investors. And now it’s not .


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The last thing one would expect is a new start but something seems to be brewing on the Queensway east of Islington. The Pie Commission (Good meat pies) got booted again but is up and running a bit south.

Is the area a hot condo location?

Is it a unique set of buildings?

Does the builder have a ton of money to let sit idle while markets recover and is banking on low build prices from desperate contractors?

Rental commercial space?
 
The last thing one would expect is a new start but something seems to be brewing on the Queensway east of Islington. The Pie Commission (Good meat pies) got booted again but is up and running a bit south.

Is the area a hot condo location?

Is it a unique set of buildings?

Does the builder have a ton of money to let sit idle while markets recover and is banking on low build prices from desperate contractors?

Rental commercial space?
Land aggregation takes time and money. I don't know of a future plan for that area but that doesn't mean there isn't one. Things like future transit, future zoning, etc can make today's apparent folly look like tomorrow's goldmine.
 
Land aggregation takes time and money. I don't know of a future plan for that area but that doesn't mean there isn't one. Things like future transit, future zoning, etc can make today's apparent folly look like tomorrow's goldmine.
The Queensway would be a straight track to downtown. They could call it the South Crosstown. Up and running for our second centennial in 2067. Maybe faster if they built an elevated road above the QEW to link with the existing crumbling elevated one further east.

Cynically yours,
 
The last thing one would expect is a new start but something seems to be brewing on the Queensway east of Islington. The Pie Commission (Good meat pies) got booted again but is up and running a bit south.

Is the area a hot condo location?

Is it a unique set of buildings?

Does the builder have a ton of money to let sit idle while markets recover and is banking on low build prices from desperate contractors?

Rental commercial space?
Developers will buy when convenient, hold until convenient, and build when ideal conditions are coming up.

Many developers buy farms, commercial properties / lands and just rent to the owners until such time as they need the land.

I've read it's happening tons for farm communities where the farmers don't even own the land anymore they're just able to use it for a fee until such a time that the builder wants them off.
 
Developers will buy when convenient, hold until convenient, and build when ideal conditions are coming up.

Many developers buy farms, commercial properties / lands and just rent to the owners until such time as they need the land.

I've read it's happening tons for farm communities where the farmers don't even own the land anymore they're just able to use it for a fee until such a time that the builder wants them off.
True. Most of the farm land south east of Alliston and north of Beaton is owned by developers. Mainly Mattamy Homes. Has been for 20 years.
 
Developers will buy when convenient, hold until convenient, and build when ideal conditions are coming up.

Many developers buy farms, commercial properties / lands and just rent to the owners until such time as they need the land.

I've read it's happening tons for farm communities where the farmers don't even own the land anymore they're just able to use it for a fee until such a time that the builder wants them off.
A lot of land is under contract. The developers don't have enough money to buy all the land they want for the future so they make a deal today to ensure they can buy it in the future. This also makes it simpler to keep zoning and taxes at low rates as it is owned and operated by a farmer or small business. Something along the lines of "We will give you x dollars a year until we are ready to buy your land. When the time comes, we will pay market rate plus 5%. In exchange for this consideration, we have right of first refusal if you receive any others offers.". For many farms, x is six figures a year. Nice bump in income for doing nothing. Much much cheaper than interest cost on a loan to buy the land.
 
A developer purchasing farm land doesn't change the zoning. Thats an application process. But I get what you're saying.
 
A developer purchasing farm land doesn't change the zoning. Thats an application process. But I get what you're saying.
It doesn't but it causes a political headache. For instance, Smart centres owns some fields in Barrie. Technically the fields were rezoned to commercial but smart centres can (and does) apply for a temporary use agriculture bylaw as they are fields and not a commercial site. It is an 82 acre parcel that pays agricultural taxes of $8,250. If they were required to pay based on zoning, tax bill would be $50K-175K for the same parcel. Residents are questioning why Barrie would grant such an exemption on a monster corporation as that pushes more tax onto everybody else. If farmer AllistonGT owned the land, the community pushback would be much less.


EDIT:
Fwiw, I would be shocked if these fields are contributing to agriculture. Yes, there are crops but given their location, I expect they are a farce and only being planted to sidestep taxes. I don't even know if they are harvesting the crops or just mowing them down to save time.
 
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It doesn't but it causes a political headache. For instance, Smart centres owns some fields in Barrie. Technically the fields were rezoned to commercial but smart centres can (and does) apply for a temporary use agriculture bylaw as they are fields and not a commercial site. It is an 82 acre parcel that pays agricultural taxes of $8,250. If they were required to pay based on zoning, tax bill would be $50K-175K for the same parcel. Residents are questioning why Barrie would grant such an exemption on a monster corporation as that pushes more tax onto everybody else. If farmer AllistonGT owned the land, the community pushback would be much less.


EDIT:
Fwiw, I would be shocked if these fields are contributing to agriculture. Yes, there are crops but given their location, I expect they are a farce and only being planted to sidestep taxes. I don't even know if they are harvesting the crops or just mowing them down to save time.
Can you just not rent the fields out to someone wanting to plant beans or corn in them - another way to get your tax credit.
 
Can you just not rent the fields out to someone wanting to plant beans or corn in them - another way to get your tax credit.
My buddy does this adjacent to his property near their cottage in Prince Edward County.

Half the land is his cottage, the second half is rented to a farmer for use as he sits fit. He plants whatever he wants, and pays a minimal fee to the owner annually but it is way under market rate.

Works for both.
 
Can you just not rent the fields out to someone wanting to plant beans or corn in them - another way to get your tax credit.
Maybe. Given the relatively small size, distance to existing farms and need to drive farm vehicles through the city, it may not be economically viable. For large fields on the boundaries, your solution is much easier.
 
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