I think the bump in a lot of rougher centers comes from the impact of gentrification.
Agreed on gentrification for some areas and affecting numbers for Hamilton as a whole, but the bits of Hamilton I was looking at the numbers on haven't been gentrified much, they were never run down (or had been un-run-down long before Covid). Areas like Kirkendall North (South is where some of the prettiest mansions in the country sit, definitely an outlier for the city), Blakeley and The Delta. If gentrification happened, it was changes to the commercial strips servicing those areas, like Locke and Ottawa.
I think it's more about changing perceptions, both for commutability and what some people are looking for in a neighbourhood. The vast majority of people moving near us in Delta West are downtown Torontonians looking for a similar urban feel but just... a bit less intense and a lot cheaper. Lots of ex-condo dwellers, renters who bought but couldn't afford Toronto, families looking for more space, etc. They're also looking for a sense of place and neighbourhood character that's impossible to find in newer cities with their subdivision/arterial hub design model, and back yard and a garage over front yard and a driveway architecture.
I think for these areas it's less about gentrification and more about having been undervalued and the value correcting. Of course, the bigger the needle swings, the bigger it swings back to find equilibrium. Lots of parts of Hamilton are down 25, even 30% from the peaks of Covid craziness, but considering they went up twice that from 2020 to 2022, it was a heck of a rollercoaster. From what I can guess from the numbers, places like Burlington, being out of the reach of more people to begin with, were insulated somewhat from those huge demand spikes and resulting corrections.
The biggest thing in common is the listing are all lasting a bit longer and the prices are all off a bit from three yrs ago.
100% agreed, but I don't think we're done yet. For family housing, things seem to have stabilisied somewhat. But the next big shift is the contracting population from emigration over the past year, which is having a huge effect on the rental market. YOY numbers are pretty stark. Not sure how accurate this graph is, but it passes my eye test for what 'feels' like is happening, which is hitting the rental market:
I'm actually seeing 'For Rent' signs up in front of apartment buildings for probably the first time in well over a decade. It has gone from seeing a few through the summer to seeing them everywhere now. Pretty much every apartment block I pass has one now. Vacancy rates around Mohawk have more than doubled since last year, and that's only growing.
This is largely good news for anyone except landlords, as it should go a long way to addressing the homelessness spike that we've all seen in the past few years. How it impacts the housing market, both for condos and smaller rental houses, time will tell. I have to expect there will be quite a few second properties on the market as the math flips upside down and the property value gains aren't enough to justify the monthly losses.
