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Coronavirus

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Apparently tanger outlets was absolutely rammed today. It looked like yorkdale the week before xmas. :(
And this is the issue with regional lockdowns. Can’t go shopping in Toronto? No problem, lots of malls in the surround areas.
No dining in Peel? No problem....cross Winston Churchchill and have at it at any of the nearby restaurants.
At this rate I’ll be surprised if we will get this under control by Family Day.
 
Show us your data.


Outdoor transmission is generally considered lower risk than indoors. Standing around a bonfire is probably just fine. If you don't want to do it, then don't.
 
My parents are in their late 70's - I feel bad for them as they have lived in a world of 2 people since March. Fortunately they have a decent size place and are able to get out to walk without interacting with others. I usually see them a few times a month, since March maybe 4 times.

Christmas will be like Thanksgiving. They will be at a table in their garage, me and the kids on a picnic table at the end of the driveway. Only colder.

So a suggestion that we use outside in the winter.

If you have a space heater or a micro furnace. Put it under your table. Cover the table with older bed sheets. Sit with your legs and hands under the table. You will, I guarantee, be warm.

In the picture you can see the heater with old flannel blanket draped over it.
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uh yeah, we're not shutting down lol.
To be fair, nobody really knows yet officially...todays news was a leak afterall.

But I don't expect it to be anything like March and April. And hell, even then it was pretty ridiculous - I went to a place during the peak of the lockdown in April which was manufacturing stuff very specific to amusement parks. Because, you know, THAT was an "Essential business".

The worst part is the number of businesses and factories which have just taken indifference to the extreme. I was at a place Friday where not a single person in the entire factory production floor that I could see (probably 30-40 people) had a mask on or were practicing any distancing, and then I went into the front office to get my paperwork afterwards and it was the exact same thing - 15 or 20 people interspersed with people from the production floor all milling around without a care in the world.

At this point the approaches we've been taking is the government saying "lets cross all our fingers and all our toes and think happy thoughts" while typhoid mary's dance through the streets and workplaces.
 

Outdoor transmission is generally considered lower risk than indoors. Standing around a bonfire is probably just fine. If you don't want to do it, then don't.
"lower risk". How about, lock things down till there is no risk?
 
"lower risk". How about, lock things down till there is no risk?

Life is full of risks. Manage yours according to your own risk tolerance. Some would call you a fool for riding a motorcycle, which I'm sure isn't something you'd agree with, right? Same type of deal.
 
To be fair, nobody really knows yet officially...todays news was a leak afterall.

But I don't expect it to be anything like March and April. And hell, even then it was pretty ridiculous - I went to a place during the peak of the lockdown in April which was manufacturing stuff very specific to amusement parks. Because, you know, THAT was an "Essential business".

The worst part is the number of businesses and factories which have just taken indifference to the extreme. I was at a place Friday where not a single person in the entire factory production floor that I could see (probably 30-40 people) had a mask on or were practicing any distancing, and then I went into the front office to get my paperwork afterwards and it was the exact same thing - 15 or 20 people interspersed with people from the production floor all milling around without a care in the world.

At this point the approaches we've been taking is the government saying "lets cross all our fingers and all our toes and think happy thoughts" while typhoid mary's dance through the streets and workplaces.
I'm talking about my work place, we're exempt. I was replying to Brian because we're a client of his.

As for who you visited prior, it's possible they had other clients who were critical infrastructure. Like us, we're tier 1 and supply stuff direct to DHS (hence our exemption), so by trickle down effect, all our tier 2 suppliers are also exempt and so and so on. You could be an off the shelf distributer of wood screws and if you had the 'right clients' you're expected to stay open and supply.
 
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TBH all of the places that I normally deal with are taking it seriously. Masks, temperature checks, questionnaire, sign-in procedure (for contact tracing), etc. It's not perfect but it will have to do. I know it isn't like that everywhere; the exceptions are causing trouble for the rest of us.
 

Outdoor transmission is generally considered lower risk than indoors. Standing around a bonfire is probably just fine. If you don't want to do it, then don't.

Are you serious??? If yes, this is the problem. It's not all about you. It's about you getting getting it and passing it on to someone else. If six people want to play Russian roulette that's OK by me. If six people stand around and draw straws to pick a stranger to kill it's a different story.
 
Since the ski hill has opened Friday, I have been out five times (~1 to 2 hours each time). Buildings are off limits and they have a mask policy when in crowds/on the lift. Basically, anytime you can't protect a 6' space from anyone you don't live with, wear a mask.
  • In lift lines, while waiting for, loading and unloading chair lifts or surface lifts
  • If you choose to ride a chairlift with someone not in your cohort group for the lift ride duration. No one will be required to ride the lift with a different cohort group, but you will need to wear your face covering for the ride’s duration if you choose to do so.
  • Where people congregate outdoors, for example, ticket purchases at outdoor ticket windows, building entry, lesson meeting spots
The overwhelming majority of people are following the protocol. The 11 to 17 year old park rats are not (unless there was a huge number of quadruplets to sextuplets 11 to 17 years ago). They all pile into a chair and pull off their masks. You could see the breath from one right into another face. ugh. They are going to get things shut down (or not restarted). Not much can be done about the monsters either. You could kick them off the hill, but then they would just hang out in someones basement. Sadly, no amount of regulation can fix attitude.
 
As for who you visited prior, it's possible they had other clients who were critical infrastructure. Like us, we're tier 1 and supply stuff direct to DHS (hence our exemption), so by trickle down effect, all our tier 2 suppliers are also exempt and so and so on. You could be an off the shelf distributer of wood screws and if you had the 'right clients' you're expected to stay open and supply.

I won't go into a lot of details as it's not something I want to get into for a variety of reasons, but suffice to say, no. This one business in particular is a one trick pony, and there was 0.0% chance anything they were producing in March, April, and May was in any way, shape, or form "essential", nor connected to anything essential. I'd go out on a limb and suggest that everything they produced during that time period is still sitting collecting dust in their yard actually since there was zero market for it this year.

But the loopholes at the time were so glaringly huge that pretty much any factory on the planet could find a way to deem themselves "essential" if they read things the way they wanted to interpret them..and many companies were under some delusion that "Things will get back to normal in a month or two" so they wanted to keep the production lines running regardless of the risk at the time.

TBH all of the places that I normally deal with are taking it seriously. Masks, temperature checks, questionnaire, sign-in procedure (for contact tracing), etc. It's not perfect but it will have to do. I know it isn't like that everywhere; the exceptions are causing trouble for the rest of us.

To be fair I go to a lot of places who ARE taking it serious. Not all are doing temperature checks and probably 75% are adhering to masks, but the 25% doing jack **** are the ones ruining it for everyone else. 1 infected anti mask or chin-diaper mask wearer Jackass in a factory of 100 people that infects 75% of their coworkers = 75 people going home and probably spreading it to their family, who may then unknowingly drag it to *their* workplace of 100 people and infect a few people, who then perpetuate things.

As for temperature checks, that's a bit of a false sense of security anyways - once you spike a temperature you've been contagious for days already, but I guess it keeps the *knowingly* infected day-visit people out at least..but for actual employees coming in day after day, well...if you spike a temperature on Friday, you've possibly infected a bunch of your coworkers all week long already.
 
I'm wondering about the business evictions in trying times.

If I was a landlord and had a renter that had been doing their best to pay the rent and had a good history I would rather have part rent than no rent.

Does the landlord have reason to believe this will soon be over and there will be a high demand for the property at a higher rent?
 
Any landlord who gives a tenant the boot right now, has got to be insane ... but some of them are insane.

Likewise, any bank that forecloses now due to late mortgage payments, is not thinking straight, either.

Anyone having trouble making rent or mortgage payments, or who sees that trouble coming soon, really ought to be having a discussion with their landlord or a representative of their bank, preferably bypassing rule-based IF ... THEN ... automatons if at all possible.
 
I'm wondering about the business evictions in trying times.

If I was a landlord and had a renter that had been doing their best to pay the rent and had a good history I would rather have part rent than no rent.

Does the landlord have reason to believe this will soon be over and there will be a high demand for the property at a higher rent?
It's a gamble for any landlord. Do they want the space back to potentially rent in the future for more money or a better tenant or are they better keeping the one they have? A lot depends on the relationship. I know some that went pretty well (landlord said don't bother paying rent until business picks up, tenant worked their ***** off to stay current on rent, landlord said your rent is now reduced by 20% for the forseeable future).
 
Any landlord who gives a tenant the boot right now, has got to be insane ... but some of them are insane.

Likewise, any bank that forecloses now due to late mortgage payments, is not thinking straight, either.

Anyone having trouble making rent or mortgage payments, or who sees that trouble coming soon, really ought to be having a discussion with their landlord or a representative of their bank, preferably bypassing rule-based IF ... THEN ... automatons if at all possible.
For renting, it depends on the contract. Maybe the tenant is on a long-term lease at a crazy low rate, getting them out should be a long-term financial win. Alternatively, if the landlord is in the same premises, maybe they want more space and it was occupied by a tenant. For commercial, if the tenant has valuable assets and a high probability of failing, pulling the bandaid off now gives the landlord more to sell and gets the property back on the market sooner.

Foreclosure is an interesting topic. For most single-family homes unless the bank cut a ridiculous mortgage to start (eg. bidding war six figures over fair market value and the bank decided to fund it) their money is safe. Just keep piling up the penalties and interest to add profit with no additional risk. Basically start clawing back equity from the homeowner and let them decide whether to sell to stop the bleeding. For condos, that have a very real possibility of a large price correction, it plays out differently. Do they foreclose now and try to get as much as possible out? I think the answer is probably yes. Obviously that will accelerate the price depression, but the first bank that goes is the victor at the expense of those that waited.
 
I'm wondering about the business evictions in trying times.

If I was a landlord and had a renter that had been doing their best to pay the rent and had a good history I would rather have part rent than no rent.

Does the landlord have reason to believe this will soon be over and there will be a high demand for the property at a higher rent?
I think landlords are going to be in for a shock. It's not going to impact industrial space for a while, but retail and commercial has to be facing some headwinds.

Some of the big downtown employers have converted thousands of jobs to WFH, I know several big employers who are not renewing large building leases.
 
I think landlords are going to be in for a shock. It's not going to impact industrial space for a while, but retail and commercial has to be facing some headwinds.

Some of the big downtown employers have converted thousands of jobs to WFH, I know several big employers who are not renewing large building leases.
A few of my buddies are being told not to even bother thinking of returning back to work before 2022/23 because the companies are loving the WFH savings.

as for us, we’ve been extended to March with possibly September. It saddens me what’s happening, but the big boys and girls are snapping up failing businesses, buildings, and office space at an alarming rate. Whoever has money is going to make out like a bandit if they play their cars right. Hell I’d snap up a few condos if I could find the capital.
 
For renting, it depends on the contract. Maybe the tenant is on a long-term lease at a crazy low rate, getting them out should be a long-term financial win. Alternatively, if the landlord is in the same premises, maybe they want more space and it was occupied by a tenant. For commercial, if the tenant has valuable assets and a high probability of failing, pulling the bandaid off now gives the landlord more to sell and gets the property back on the market sooner.

Foreclosure is an interesting topic. For most single-family homes unless the bank cut a ridiculous mortgage to start (eg. bidding war six figures over fair market value and the bank decided to fund it) their money is safe. Just keep piling up the penalties and interest to add profit with no additional risk. Basically start clawing back equity from the homeowner and let them decide whether to sell to stop the bleeding. For condos, that have a very real possibility of a large price correction, it plays out differently. Do they foreclose now and try to get as much as possible out? I think the answer is probably yes. Obviously that will accelerate the price depression, but the first bank that goes is the victor at the expense of those that waited.
Condos in the GTA will pull back for sure, too much supply in the pipeline, too much conversion back from short term rentals, too many frustrated with the 'condo life' in a pandemic. The house market is seeing an increase in demand from the migrating condo dwellers, it also has no short term rental surplus to be absorbed so prices will stay strong for a while.

The tricky part is what happens next? Can house prices hold without immigration? Can they hold if the short term rental market collapses? Can they hold if WFH means folks can move further out to cheaper small towns?

Who knows.
 
A few of my buddies are being told not to even bother thinking of returning back to work before 2022/23 because the companies are loving the WFH savings.

as for us, we’ve been extended to March with possibly September. It saddens me what’s happening, but the big boys and girls are snapping up failing businesses, buildings, and office space at an alarming rate. Whoever has money is going to make out like a bandit if they play their cars right. Hell I’d snap up a few condos if I could find the capital.
It's one thing to do wfh for a limited period and quite different to make it permanent. Many dwellings are barely comfortable for people to live in pre-pandemic, having one or more people trying to work full-time in that space can easily drive people crazy. I suspect more and more people will relocate out from the city to get more space. As with everything, that will probably overshoot and companies will try to pull some people back into offices, but how does that work if you sold your condo and moved to the Bruce Peninsula?

If wfh returns to being the exception, what will the financial situation look like if you sell your house in the boonies and try to get housing close to TO again?

Some companies have already started changing comp based on where you live (which I understand but do not agree with, I think you should pay based on the job you do, not where you are while doing it). How open and available are these adjustments? If you relocate from Etobicoke to Brantford and then your employer whacks your salary by 20% you are going to lose your mind. If you had stayed in the more expensive neighbourhood, your net worth climbs way faster doing the same job.
 
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