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Coronavirus

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Eradicating a plague in a country like India or Madagascar or Africa would be like trying to keep flies out of yesterdays open meat market. Sure hope they are mostly young and healthy because it's almost a given this one is going to infect the entire populations eventually.
 
Eradicating a plague in a country like India or Madagascar or Africa would be like trying to keep flies out of yesterdays open meat market. Sure hope they are mostly young and healthy because it's almost a given this one is going to infect the entire populations eventually.
Median age in Kenya is 20. Yes, it is spreading quickly but the young population means the mortality is low.
 
The sturgis rally is in full force. Will be interesting to see if any outbreaks happen.
:unsure: is there any doubt?
If I take 2 people and rub them up against each other and one is covered in **** will the other guy get any on him?
 
They do appear to be through the worst of it.

One thing that has been common to all countries is that the number of deaths relative to the number of infections drops off with time. I can think of a number of mechanisms that could support this pattern: (1) The more vulnerable people in society get hit earliest and suffer the worst outcomes, (2) As people get sick around them, and other people actually start seeing the real world consequences, those other people start taking protective measures more seriously, (3) People in reality only have contact with a limited number of people and at a certain point, that group of people has either gotten sick or they haven't and won't because they're not in contact with people who are.

From here Coronavirus Update (Live): 20,022,265 Cases and 733,971 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Sort countries by deaths-per-million-people by clicking on the column heading.

San Marino is an exception because it is a city-state (total population under 34,000) surrounded by a part of Italy that was hard-hit. I also don't know what their population is like ... if it's biased towards elderly, that could explain the high death rate.

Belgium is something of an exception because early on, they are known to have been over-counting deaths in long-term-care homes, and now it seems that there's no practical way to go back and fix it.

All other countries have been levelling off somewhere between 600 and 700 deaths per million people, including Sweden's lack-of-lockdown situation. Whether this is because there are similarities in how people act and the outcome of the protective measures that have been taken in those particular countries ... isn't known yet.

The USA right now is at 500 deaths per million people and it's increasing at a rate of about 3 to 4 per million people per day. They've probably already got enough cases baked in for the next month ... another 100 deaths per million, bringing it into the same range as several European countries that were hard-hit earlier (Spain, Italy). It will be interesting to see what happens after that. On a country-wide basis, does the death rate naturally level off between 600 - 700 deaths per million people for whatever reason that we don't know? Looks like the USA will be the test for this.

The problems facing the USA include denial, racism, leadership and a money driven medical system.
 
The problems facing the USA include denial, racism, leadership and a money driven medical system.

Oh, there's no doubt about that. The big question that may be answered in another month or so, is whether the number of deaths per million people level off around 600 - 700 the way they have for a number of other countries including Sweden who never had a lockdown, or whether that leveling-off is due to people following proper health guidance even in the absence of a lockdown (generally true of Sweden). Even in the USA, there are plenty of people quietly staying at home through all this ... those aren't the people we see out in public not wearing masks!
 
How does a country get that low a median age? Ontario is double that.

Did something else bump off the elderly?
Children making children is my guess.
... what's the average age of the first time mommy?
 
How does a country get that low a median age? Ontario is double that.

Did something else bump off the elderly?

Low life expectancy in general. (67 years) People having lots of kids. People leaving the country when they get a chance.
 
Oh, there's no doubt about that. The big question that may be answered in another month or so, is whether the number of deaths per million people level off around 600 - 700 the way they have for a number of other countries including Sweden who never had a lockdown, or whether that leveling-off is due to people following proper health guidance even in the absence of a lockdown (generally true of Sweden). Even in the USA, there are plenty of people quietly staying at home through all this ... those aren't the people we see out in public not wearing masks!

That could be good for Trump, "See we were right and the Democrats cost us trillions."
 
How does a country get that low a median age? Ontario is double that.

Did something else bump off the elderly?
Low life expectancy (Poverty diseases -- AIDS, TB, Cholera, Malaria -- are all a big factor).
 
How does a country get that low a median age? Ontario is double that.

Did something else bump off the elderly?
For the vast majority it's a hard life. From my experience, not world vision bad for the vast majority but without a doubt access to clean water is not available to much of the population. A lot of people eak out a living doing illegal (and in most cases unsustainable) activities (turning trees into charcoal, buying one paper from a box taking them all and selling them to drivers, etc).

A decade ago a salary of $20 a month puts you near the top of blue collar kenyans. Many were surviving on a few dollars a month.

Sanitation in the slums was poop into a plastic bag and then spin it over your head and let it fly to get it away from your shack. Your neighbour a few alleys over does the same thing and it averages out with *&^*&^ spread everywhere. The water source was a few trickling brown streams (probably not much different volume than a garden hose) filled with garbage. That supplied ~100,000 people. 5 to 10 people living in each 100 sq ft shack. Fires burning in shack for cooking. Almost everything you look at isn't conducive to a long life.

This pic is reasonably representative of what I saw when I was there. For obvious reasons, busting out a big camera and taking pictures would have been a dumb idea. That water was used for cooking, drinking, clothes washing and bathing. I still don't understand how their clothes looked so damned clean.

foh-u11922631.jpg
 
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... (turning trees into charcoal, ...
More like cut down the Rosewoods to plant Eucalyptus that is used for cattle feed and charcoal, then turn razed land into rice fields to make food that in turn are destroyed to get the mud underneath to make brick and burn more charcoal to fire the brick before they raze the entire thing to make more Eucalyptus again.
Your wash water, that comes from the same stagnant pond as the Zebu standing next to you :|
... yet somehow the people for the most part seem amazingly clean :unsure:
 
More like cut down the Rosewoods to plant Eucalyptus that is used for cattle feed and charcoal, then turn razed land into rice fields to make food that in turn are destroyed to get the mud underneath to make brick and burn more charcoal to fire the brick before they raze the entire thing to make more Eucalyptus again.
Your wash water, that comes from the same stagnant pond as the Zebu standing next to you :|
That's the larger commercial version of the cycle. Much of the destruction is just individuals trying to make a living. They go out into nature and cut down trees, make a pile of charcoal and carry the pile to the road or market using a sheet as a backpack. Nobody is replanting anything so the wasteland keeps expanding. I didn't see any rice fields, I don't know where they have enough water for that. Golf courses and coffee plantations have access to water as they are catering to non-kenyan consumers and therefore have a lot more income.
 
I'm speaking more of Mad. There is a completely unique culture there, some 27 plus significant different cultures, several different native dialects and religious cultures on one island with virtually no history of civil war. They plant like crazy there, just no variety of species because of the soil.
 
How does a country get that low a median age? Ontario is double that.

Did something else bump off the elderly?


Life expectancy is short, and infant mortality rate is pretty high, but your old age security is to have a lot of kids, so they look after you when your old. But you'll loose a few along the way, death and if they have a chance they move to a better part of Africa.
And its Africa, still the dark continent.
 
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