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Coronavirus

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Years ago I did some preliminary work on a virus lab and the concept was to have the low level risks on the outside ring, medium risks inside that and high risk levels in the very centre. The air flow in case of a breach was vacuumed to the centre where I suppose there was a decontamination process.

My mind can't comprehend the CFMs required to suck the aerosols out of a large mall and the energy costs for the lost heat and air conditioning. All without air intake grills doing the Marilyn Monroe skirt flip thing.
 
GreyGhost said:
I think one of the big short-term fallouts is I don't see a way for Douggie to avoid staggering working hours to give public transit a chance to let people spread out. I think the simplest solution is along the lines of "No company may require more than 20% of their employees to start/finish work within any one hour time period". This shifts rush hour out to at least five hours so transit capacity exists. If they don't do something like this, every other measure is just lip service.
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I don't know what would worry me more, a subway ride in rush hour or a two hour flight on a packed Max 8. The Max 8 at least has some potential for thermal screening.
 
nobbie48 said:
I don't know what would worry me more, a subway ride in rush hour or a two hour flight on a packed Max 8. The Max 8 at least has some potential for thermal screening.
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And only a few hundred people. How many people are you exposed to on a subway? Surface contact since last disinfection plus direct exposure is probably thousands. Yet you cant have a backyard bbq with friends. Dumb.
 
The curse of caution: Twenty years ago IIRC Mel Lastman called in the army when we got a heavy blast of snow. He got all kinds of flak over it especially from places where they regularly measure snowfall in feet, not inches. In reality it wasn't that big a deal. However if he did nothing and people were dying because of 911 response times he would have been criticized for not doing enough.

Y2K the same. All the generators that were never needed. All the computers that got upgraded or scrapped. The legions of techies on standby New Years Eve.

Until we can find some parallel universes to compare with there is no guarantee of what was the better decision. With Covid 19 we do have Italy as an indicator. Just like the flu?

Does a normal flu season in Italy require lineups of military ambulances to take away the dead?
 
GreyGhost said:
I am surprised at Amazon. I thought they would be able to effectively scale their private/contract delivery force. There should be a huge labour pool looking for money and gas is cheap. I have seen no evidence of that happening which surprised me.
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Last mile logistics are the most important, yet most expensive and complicated to coordinate. Even a highly technical + advanced company like Amazon is going to struggle if their demand surges 200%. Add to the fact that delivery contractors may struggle in procuring vans (rental companies not being able to keep up with demand) and it makes perfect sense. The labour pool may be deep, but the bottleneck is likely in delivery equipment, not bodies in the warehouses (which are highly automated to begin with).
 
nobbie48 said:
I knew a guy that made special cleaners and was offered a deal from a big box. He found out before inking the deal that the deal was good the first year or two but after the expansion to supply was in place they slashed their purchase price. With the owner on the ropes they bought controlling interest as a bail out. The owner became an employee with profit sharing.
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Sure that's common.

In automotive we expect give backs from the suppliers. The thought being that down the road you would have found enough efficiency in the process to provide the cost savings. The OEMs all expect it, don't play ball and you don't get the work. So it gets passed down the tiers to the tier 500s to suck up.
 
d4rktrooper788 said:
Last mile logistics are the most important, yet most expensive and complicated to coordinate. Even a highly technical + advanced company like Amazon is going to struggle if their demand surges 200%. Add to the fact that delivery contractors may struggle in procuring vans (rental companies not being able to keep up with demand) and it makes perfect sense. The labour pool may be deep, but the bottleneck is likely in delivery equipment, not bodies in the warehouses (which are highly automated to begin with).
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At xmas, the delivery drivers are just filling their personal cars. Amazon ships a truck from the warehouse to a location in a nearby town. Drivers show up, fill their cars and do the last mile. I havent seen any of those right now, just official couriers and cp. My last amazon delivery was one week for amazon to ship and more than a week for CP to deliver.
 
Evoex said:
Sure that's common.

In automotive we expect give backs from the suppliers. The thought being that down the road you would have found enough efficiency in the process to provide the cost savings. The OEMs all expect it, don't play ball and you don't get the work. So it gets passed down the tiers to the tier 500s to suck up.
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It's one thing to go into a multi-year contract that includes a price reduction of x percent a year, its quite different if you have a fixed price and when you go in to negotiate the next batch and they cut your legs out because they know you have bet the company.
 
GreyGhost said:
It's one thing to go into a multi-year contract that includes a price reduction of x percent a year, its quite different if you have a fixed price and when you go in to negotiate the next batch and they cut your legs out because they know you have bet the company.
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Agreed but that's not what was said.
 
Went to Home Depot yesterday to pickup something ordered online. All their rental vans were sitting parked in the corner.

I think the vehicles are there, it's likely just Amazon not wanting to spend the $$$ to put more people on the roads when who knows what the weeks ahead will bring. If in 3 weeks all the brick and mortar stuff is open again (masks, restrictions and whatever else inevitable aside) people will be itching for that sort of real world hands on shopping experience again and the need for online shopping will be decreased.

Those two things together could certainly collapse the online demand in short order...and then Amazon has all these new contractors on the books with no work for them.

As someone who works in the logistics industry I know that everyone struggles in both the bad times, and the good. Companies can't just drop millions or billions of dollars to buy equipment and hire tons of additional employees for what may end up being a short term situation.
 
GreyGhost said:
I've seen walmart crush people too. They keep increasing volume so you are under crushing expansion debt, then demand a huge price cut. The debt prevents you from going back to the old way, you either comply or go bankrupt.
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I was in that world for a while, Walmart doesn’t crush vendors. Vendors crush themselves by not planning and managing the move from high margin/low volume to high volume/low margin businesses.
 
GreyGhost said:
It's one thing to go into a multi-year contract that includes a price reduction of x percent a year, its quite different if you have a fixed price and when you go in to negotiate the next batch and they cut your legs out because they know you have bet the company.
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101 risk management. Take risks you can understand and manage. Never bet the farm on any deal.
 
Mad Mike said:
I was in that world for a while, Walmart doesn’t crush vendors. Vendors crush themselves by not planning and managing the move from high margin/low volume to high volume/low margin businesses.
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A friend is Ex IBM and, if it still holds true, they won't deal with a supplier that would be completely dependent on them. They don't want the flak if a product line changes and they are seen as throwing a supplier to the wolves.
 
nobbie48 said:
Years ago I did some preliminary work on a virus lab and the concept was to have the low level risks on the outside ring, medium risks inside that and high risk levels in the very centre. The air flow in case of a breach was vacuumed to the centre where I suppose there was a decontamination process.

My mind can't comprehend the CFMs required to suck the aerosols out of a large mall and the energy costs for the lost heat and air conditioning. All without air intake grills doing the Marilyn Monroe skirt flip thing.
Click to expand...

Years ago I met a contractor that worked on Porton Down, the UK biological and chemical weapons research unit. He told me he asked if the blueprints were upside down when he started the building work. All the floors were underground except a couple. The deeper you go the nastier things get. Negative pressure labs are common. We have them in our chem labs, it’s hard to open bulkhead doors sometimes with the differential. Biohazard labs are something else though. There was a breach at a US Army research lab a long time ago and Ebola got out of the containment area. The whole thing was negative pressure though and it didn’t get far. The entire lab facility was decontaminated using formaldehyde gas.
 
At the store where my kids work,
if I see someone toss used gloves into the parking lot or entrance,
I'm going to consider which of their orifices I'd stuff them into.

Do people not know how to follow the whole protocol, if you're going to wear disposable gloves?
 
Baggsy said:
At the store where my kids work,
if I see someone toss used gloves into the parking lot or entrance,
I'm going to consider which of their orifices I'd stuff them into.

Do people not know how to follow the whole protocol, if you're going to wear disposable gloves?
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there’s no skin transmission, gloves don’t make too much sense unless you’re not washing your hands at all.
 
Baggsy said:
At the store where my kids work,
if I see someone toss used gloves into the parking lot or entrance,
I'm going to consider which of their orifices I'd stuff them into.

Do people not know how to follow the whole protocol, if you're going to wear disposable gloves?
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No, from my observation most hop in their vehicle wearing the contaminated gloves, a few are smart and carefully remove and discard and a few are asshats and drop them in the parking lot.
 
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