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blackberry 10

STARSHIP

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Will they be still around to launch BB10. I am a big Blackberry fan and continue to use one despite the ifan movement. Their enterprise business continues to drop so hopefully they can get BB10 out soon. The investors have already factored BB10 and the last several losses in the stock value, but if BB10 turns out to be a bigger hit, then maybe. But be prepared for a loss regardless.
 

invictus43

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I thought it was interesting..one of their guys was on TV crowing that they were sitting on $2 billion in cash..meanwhile, they took a loss of $500 million in the first quarter..now I'm no mathematician..but..they better hope BB10 works..

I think you need to have some insight and knowledge here..what's the fair share price if they start busting up the company and selling it off? What's it worth if they try to salvage things and just ride it into the ground? I dunno..it's a gamble..don't put the Canadiana glasses on while evaluating it either..
 

toshison

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RIM is a speculative play but they have taken such a beating that I don't really know how much lower it can go. The company's market cap is now sitting around 3.75bln, 2.2bln of that is cash/liquid assets which means the actual company, its operations, real estate, physical assets and patent portfolio are valued at a little over 1.5bln. The market does not think too highly of RIM. If RIM was to shut their doors and gut the company the sum of parts is worth more than the stock is.

The concern is that RIM is going to eat away at that cash balance which could happen since RIM has done nothing but disappoint in every way possible. But, RIM is trying to counter that by reducing costs which is why they are laying off so many people.
 

invictus43

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RIM is a speculative play but they have taken such a beating that I don't really know how much lower it can go. The company's market cap is now sitting around 3.75bln, 2.2bln of that is cash/liquid assets which means the actual company, its operations, real estate, physical assets and patent portfolio are valued at a little over 1.5bln. The market does not think too highly of RIM. If RIM was to shut their doors and gut the company the sum of parts is worth more than the stock is.

The concern is that RIM is going to eat away at that cash balance which could happen since RIM has done nothing but disappoint in every way possible. But, RIM is trying to counter that by reducing costs which is why they are laying off so many people.
But I'm thinking, at $500mill a quarter, they don't have much time to sort out their plan? Is that fair? I'm thinking by the end of the year the jig will be up.
 

toshison

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But I'm thinking, at $500mill a quarter, they don't have much time to sort out their plan? Is that fair? I'm thinking by the end of the year the jig will be up.
I think RIM is still cash-flow positive as they are making money. Much of their recent loses (the last two quarters) are coming from them taking one-time charges and writing down inventory which are not recurring operational losses. They have a lot of phones & playbooks that are not worth what they might of been worth if the products were more successful and so they are less valuable and that written down value gets on the books.

Thats why RIM is trying to cut costs so they can compensate for the decline in sales and still try to remain profitable.
 

just_luc

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It's no secret that I am a RIM supporter, I have used their devices for MANY years and I strongly believe they make the best product on the market at least for my needs, both professional and personal. However I'm not a fanboy who thinks they can do no wrong. They certainly have dropped the ball on certain things, and have clung to an operating system that while was state of the art at it's inception is now no longer up to par with today. They intend to change that with BB10, and I have faith that they will. I have had hands on time with the new operating system and I am very impressed. To that end 6 months ago I called everyone crazy when they proclaimed doom for RIM.. today my confidence is less absolute. My opinion of RIM and their ability to release a product far superior to the competition has not changed, but as the stock continues to twiddle, I do have to be realistic that it is a possibility they may not get the opportunity to bring the new product to market. If they were a privately owned company my confidence and level of excitment for BB10 would be at an all time high, but they aren't.. and the stock market is uncertain, largely because of miss-information in the meida.

I think RIM is still cash-flow positive as they are making money. Much of their recent loses (the last two quarters) are coming from them taking one-time charges and writing down inventory which are not recurring operational losses. They have a lot of phones & playbooks that are not worth what they might of been worth if the products were more successful and so they are less valuable and that written down value gets on the books.

Thats why RIM is trying to cut costs so they can compensate for the decline in sales and still try to remain profitable.
This is 100% true, and an example of miss-information in the media pushing public opinion and thus the stock ever down. This quarterly loss was billed by the media as a downward slope leading towards financial ruins. THIS IS NOT THE CASE. The company is taking short term pain for long term gain, writing down old inventory and laying off people who are not of value to the new the new products. Both of these things cost money now, but save later. Ensuring the company can keep that 2 billion in the bank, and even add to it.

In the end, they are a company with zero debt.. and while it took them a little two long to abandon the aging platform and start a new, they have a strong game plan to once again be the best at what they do.

Let's not forget the difference in age between the platforms.. blackberry was first in the smartphone market, their OS launched 12 years ago. Was that too long to keep it? Yes.. that was a mistake, but the fact that it held it's own for that long is impressive. How many years are we on for apple's OS now? I don't have the exact number.. but similar to RIM their platform hasn't really changed much since inception.. only minor tweaks. Someday it will get old and they too will have to start a new. It's the life cycle of electronics.
 
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psycho44

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http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/RIM.TO/key-developments/article/2573051

RIM is constantly being sued and anymore judgement like this $147 million and RIM won't have any cash left to launch BB10 or even pay for it's lawyers to fight all these lawsuits. Read somewhere that if BB10 were to be launched 1st quarter it take at least few months for the service providers to integrate the BB10 into their network as well so looking at possibly March release date.
 

just_luc

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http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/RIM.TO/key-developments/article/2573051

RIM is constantly being sued and anymore judgement like this $147 million and RIM won't have any cash left to launch BB10 or even pay for it's lawyers to fight all these lawsuits. Read somewhere that if BB10 were to be launched 1st quarter it take at least few months for the service providers to integrate the BB10 into their network as well so looking at possibly March release date.
More examples of miss-information from the media...

The part about them loosing that particular lawsuit is true.. however it's not a done deal yet, it will likely still be appealed. That said even if they loose, the part that's not being talked about is how routine these lawsuits are for large companies, some are won some are lost.. but they have an equal amount of lawsuits where they are the plaintiff and money coming in from those to offset money going out from ones they've lost.

The part about blackberry 10 needing to be integrated into the service providers network is just plain false. It works on a standard active sync protocol which is already being used iphone's and androids alike, not to mention the blackberry 10 alpha devices and playbooks that are already in circulation and working today. When the launch date is set for Blackberry 10 in January the devices will be operation same day, and the carriers are on board to promote the launch.

As said in my post above, the only concern regarding RIM not being able to launch blackberry 10 in Q1 2013 would be if external forces (ie the stock market) were to force significant change in the corporate structure before the launch date arrives. I can no longer deny that possibility, but I would say I'm still on the winning side of a 70/30 split that the devices will launch.
 

invictus43

Well-known member
I can no longer deny that possibility, but I would say I'm still on the winning side of a 70/30 split that the devices will launch.
The devices may launch, but will anyone care? They're not even in the top 5 anymore for market-share, are they? I dunno..I can see them spiralling into oblivion. We have corporate BB's but honestly, I can see that disappearing very shortly. There are other alternatives out there that are becoming much more common. I'm not a hater..I really couldn't care less..they're just an appliance to me. But I think they have a serious image problem and I'm not sure what they can do to fix that.
 

toshison

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Patent lawsuit judgements are nothing new with these tech companies. These companies are in litigation everyday, Apple and Samsung included.

RIM has been the media's whipping boy for a while now. I do hope for the sake of RIM employee's, shareholders and the community out there in Waterloo that RIM does right the ship and succeed next year. I am all for supporting homegrown product.

I think the only way RIM doesn't launch BB10 at this stage is if they sell the company. They have lots of money, still making money, are cutting costs, have no debt and have access to lots of credit so they can absolutely launch BB10. The next quarter's results will probably hurt but the one after that will probably be overshadowed by the release of BB10 because by then, there "should" be a firm release date and hopefully they will already be marketing it which should boost the stock..

But, if RIM delays the release again, I think that will be the nail in the coffin and what little faith people still have in them will be gone.
 

LePhillou

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They are really going all-in with BB10

They will whether go phoenix and rise from ashes or they will just sink below (at least in north america)
My buddy working at QNX does indicate that when he talks with his bosses and goes to those meetings, theyre talking more about winning the eastern societies (asian countries) rather than trying to get back north america...the playing field is too rough up here with apple and android.

Since they're focusing on 2 models (one touch, one with qwerty) im thinking itll be easier moving forward to get upgrades, updates and all that jazz. I tried, i had 2 bb's but i wanted to murder someone near the end of my bb ownership.

If they have a decent product, ill consider them, until then i'll enjoy my Jelly Bean buttery smooth OS :)
 

just_luc

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The devices may launch, but will anyone care? They're not even in the top 5 anymore for market-share, are they? I dunno..I can see them spiralling into oblivion. We have corporate BB's but honestly, I can see that disappearing very shortly. There are other alternatives out there that are becoming much more common. I'm not a hater..I really couldn't care less..they're just an appliance to me. But I think they have a serious image problem and I'm not sure what they can do to fix that.
I understand your sentiment.. but I for one will care. And I know I'm not alone. Not to say the others aren't good products in their own right, but for me. Nothing suites what I do, the way I do it like a blackberry. In regards to your numbers I believe you are way off. By percentage RIM still holds the #1 spot in Canada (by independent survey not funded by RIM) and the number 3 spot around the world. That said, their market share as a whole has dropped, but this was inevitable seeing as they were at one time the ONLY smartphone, meaning 100% market share.. as new players emerged this number had to drop.. BUT it did not drop at RIM's expense.. RIM actually continues to gain subscribers year after year and quarter after quarter, with this year being no exception. They are actually at an all time high total subscribers. The notable anomaly where this isn't true is the US market... hence the media slamming as a majority of media is US based.

Patent lawsuit judgements are nothing new with these tech companies. These companies are in litigation everyday, Apple and Samsung included.

RIM has been the media's whipping boy for a while now. I do hope for the sake of RIM employee's, shareholders and the community out there in Waterloo that RIM does right the ship and succeed next year. I am all for supporting homegrown product.

I think the only way RIM doesn't launch BB10 at this stage is if they sell the company. They have lots of money, still making money, are cutting costs, have no debt and have access to lots of credit so they can absolutely launch BB10. The next quarter's results will probably hurt but the one after that will probably be overshadowed by the release of BB10 because by then, there "should" be a firm release date and hopefully they will already be marketing it which should boost the stock..

But, if RIM delays the release again, I think that will be the nail in the coffin and what little faith people still have in them will be gone.
I concur with this 100%.
 

fastar1

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would it be a smart gamble to purchase stock shortly before rim launches bb10?
If you have good reason to think it will be more of a success than other investors estimate, and that it's success will be sufficient to increase the value of RIM, then yes it would be a smart gamble.
 

EvolutionIV

Active member
I thought it was interesting..one of their guys was on TV crowing that they were sitting on $2 billion in cash..meanwhile, they took a loss of $500 million in the first quarter..now I'm no mathematician..but..they better hope BB10 works..

I think you need to have some insight and knowledge here..what's the fair share price if they start busting up the company and selling it off? What's it worth if they try to salvage things and just ride it into the ground? I dunno..it's a gamble..don't put the Canadiana glasses on while evaluating it either..
Cash = $4
Patents = $6
Subscriber base = $3?
 

just_luc

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Cash = $4
Patents = $6
Subscriber base = $3?
What about real estate, 127 offices worldwide. over 20 buildings in Waterloo. And i'm just talking about the tangible value of land and buildings.. then there's still all the office furniture, work stations.. servers.. etc
 

awyala

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What about real estate, 127 offices worldwide. over 20 buildings in Waterloo. And i'm just talking about the tangible value of land and buildings.. then there's still all the office furniture, work stations.. servers.. etc
Most of it will be leased or if owned sold for pennies on the dollar. The take over of RIM itself may depreciate land values across Waterloo!
 

nfq

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What about real estate, 127 offices worldwide. over 20 buildings in Waterloo. And i'm just talking about the tangible value of land and buildings.. then there's still all the office furniture, work stations.. servers.. etc
Can't ignore an active user base of 70 Million subscribers. That'd be just silly.
 

awyala

Well-known member
Cash = $4
Patents = $6
Subscriber base = $3?
Their cash is meaningless. Paying cash for cash? Makes no sense. Either their cash will be depleated, thus further dropping their share price, which will also further drop on speculation of a part out / sell off once they are seen as unprofitable!

Patents are becoming antiquated by the week! 6 months to a year down the road, they will be broke and their patents worth even less, as will the subscriber base. Not everyone in the world is locked into insane 3 years contracts like here. For those pathetic enought to be stuck with 2 more years in their contract...only they will remain as a subscriber base, and unwillingly. They certainly wont be "Blackberry People".

This company has mistepped and failed at every single opportunity for nearly 2 years solid! They "marketing" attempt has been a misrable failure and they have now missed the Olympics, back to school, and now Christmas marketing golden oportunities.

In the end, what will we get out of OS10? You'll get the same platform as the current Playbook? Anyone see that flying off the shelves at even $200 a pop!?! Nexus is about to corner the $200 tablet market as we speak.

Don't get me wrong, I like my Playbook fine for $170, but it isn't a productive tool as people make it out to be. To get some serious work done it takes nearly 3 times as long to create and produce spreadsheets, or send emails with attachments, etc. It is often faster to get back to the office and crank out work on a proper laptop or PC, or just find a seat at a cafe and open the laptop.

The current tablet market is a toy / gadget market and RIM lost that battle comprehensively. Windows will blow Apple out of the (productive) niche market with the new Windows tablet, and even Apple is getting in on the act, attempting to wrap a playbook in an iPad shell.

RIM has no chance now! With Apple and Windows attacking the integrated mobile productivity market with synergy between their mobile devices and their phones, RIM has no benefit.

RIM's strength was relying on integration with Windows Enterprise and Outlook. With Windows taking back that proprietary role, what is the point of RIM? That little red light?

RIM is NOT Blackberry. Blackberry is just a device. RIM is SUPPOSED to be "Research in Motion"....i.e. development of mobile devices which is in a constant state of progression. RIM has failed its own namesake, painfully trying to develop a software it a) acquired - not created, b) a software that will be antiquated by the time of its release, or at best caught up to the pack, and c) have not proposed anything new.

Anything short of plugging your phone into your car or TV or computer with full syncronization at all times will not pull RIM out of this.

And anyone who touts BBM is delusional. Whatsap dusted that off over a year ago. I don't even add anyone to my BBM for fear of having to go through it all over again when BB finally goes bust. I only add to Whatsap as its cross platform.

The only hope RIM has, as I mentioned is integration, full, all guns blazing, out of the gates, integration with other daily devices...that Porsche + QNX pipe dream has been floating around the net for over a year now, and it better come standard on every damn car this March, otherwise even that idea will be capitalized upon by the competition.

There is ZEEEEEEEEEEERO promotional hype about a product about 6 months away from release. This is a major concern. They should be dropping mouth watering teasers, spy shots, you name before the end of summer. I doubted their 3rd quarter release this year for 2 reasons....no pre-hype, and even their own employees don't know what is in the pipes. I know a lot of people who work at RIM and they have no clue what will happen. They are just in survival mode and keeping their heads down and their Waterloo mortgages paid. That is no environment to be a progressive player in the market.

Expect BB10 to flop worse than the Playbook, if it ever makes it to market.

As for an investment.....if you buy it around $4, you may see it rise to $5 in the sell off, but you are nuts to think it will ever even get back to $10, let alone $30 or $170. It's over.
 
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