You make good points and I agree. With what you described I would be interested, I’d want chargers everywhere though and a 500-600km range. It’s not uncommon for me to drive 200-400km in a day. If I was always on the search for a charger then I’ll just keep putting gas in F-150’s and getting 900ish km per tank.Pickup? This is one thing that really perplexes me -- why no pickups? Existing chassis are near perfect for conversion
COG and capacity are already solved with trucks. Unlike a car, pickup driveline + fuel tanks are 1500-2000lbs, that's way more capacity than you need for batteries. Lots of room too, you could use the same cavities that housed engine/tranny/transfer case/fuel tanks.I think it is straight economics. Right now, the biggest baddest pickup trucks are 70K+ with a ton of margin for the manufacturer. You could make an electric truck and sell it for a similar price but there would be no margin. Maybe they slot one in at 100K so they keep the margin and see if there are any takers? I don't know. Too much money for me.
The may also have a COG issue with the battery a few feet up in the air and a load capacity issue as the empty truck is now much heavier.
Lithium-based batteries are expected to cost somewhere near US$100 per kWh 5 years from now (which realistically is when EVs are expected to start seeing significant market penetration). A 100 kWh battery pack would cost $10,000 at that time (currently a fair bit more than that). That doesn't include the motor, inverter, reduction gearing, cooling systems, charger, HVAC, etc. Of course, the combustion engine and transmission that it is all replacing, costs something as well. It's not an unreasonable first guess to suggest that the cost of all the motor and inverter and driveline and charging bits wipes out the cost of a conventional engine and transmission, and the cost of the battery is the up-charge over the combustion-engine version.I don't know about margins, I'm guessing the cost difference between a truck drive train and an electric one would be a few thousand.
I would absolutely be renting a ICE vehicle if I was going on a road trip. With a Costco membership rentals are cheap.I was just watching an EE video on a long (2000 mile) Tesla 3 trip. It worked but it would drive me absolutely nuts. Drive for 200 miles (~3 hours), then charge for 50 minutes. FFS, if I'm going far, I just want to go, not stop 25% of the time.
For the vast majority of the people, the vast majority of the time, this does not matter though. For the one week a year you are going on a driving trip, if if bothers you rent an ICE. The rest of the time it would work fine for me (although not at the current initial cost).
Aerodynamics have a relatively small impact on energy use until you hit highway speeds. Even then, if you do the math, cutting the drag from of an F150 pickup (0.36) to a Tesla S (0.24), only increases highway range by 15% and city by 6%. That is easily offset by 10% larger battery. Of course pickups start off with a lower range due to the mass difference BUT WAIT! that can me mostly offset by considerably higher regenerative braking capability.Pickup trucks have a major aerodynamic disadvantage relative to something shaped like a Tesla (any of them - they're all the same general shape - and for good reason). Towing/hauling anything would kill range.
There have been a few proposals out there floating around, the most likely one to see production appears to be Rivian and they might even beat Tesla to this market segment. Remains to be seen what happens when people find out that hauling a camper-trailer cuts range in half ... I think they are targeting the urban occasional-use market as opposed to the heavy-hauling market.
M-B already has an electric version of the Sprinter van in production: Mercedes-Benz unveils new eSprinter all-electric van with specs: 150 km of range and 1000 kg payload - Electrek
Small battery pack, designed for urban delivery, an application where aero drag isn't such a killer. Also, being a van, the aero situation is easier to manage (no open bed).
VW seems likely to build a van version of their soon-to-arrive ID electric vehicle platform; the prototype was called the ID Buzz and it's likely to see production.
It wouldn't trouble me one bit to haul my race bike in an electric van.
I think distance is the primary factor at highway speed, not drag. In an urban setting your average speed will rarely exceed 35KMH, meaning each 150K of range takes 4-5 hours hrs of the workday, unless your in the delivery biz, you aren't driving that much per day. My little Transit Connect vans hit 4 jobs a day, they average 90KM/day and use about 10l/day in fuel - they would be perfect electrified.Drag coefficient is only part of it; the frontal area is the other part of it. My van (Ram Promaster aka Fiat Ducato) has Cd=0.31 (good for a big box) but A is about 2 square meters. Drag is a big factor at highway speed. Thus M-B targeting urban delivery. Vans are used a lot for that. Pickup trucks, not so much.
Agreed. If you're not buying a pickup for work, utility is a big factor in decision making. If you can't tow or go more than 100km on a charge, the utility factor drops alot. Perhaps simple 2 door work trucks could be a market -- there are countless small trucks that are used for light utility work, they might be electric candidates. I'd probably change from a Mini workvan to a lightweight (say Colorado size) electric truck as long as I could get 150km range AND the truck cost $50K or less. Wishful thinking.Certainly that's another factor. Bottom line is that at the moment an EV needs to be a low-drag and non-heavy-hauling vehicle in order to have a range that people will accept, and minimize the size of that expensive battery, or a strictly urban low-range application...but the latter is a tough sell.
What car did you have before that was using $600/week in gas but doing the same mileage as a Tesla?No more gas fill ups is amazing. I did about $600 in fill ups weekly and almost monthly oil changes so this is a nice time saving. It pretty much covers 80% of my loan payment.
I wouldn't expect Teslas to be much different than any other luxo car (ie huge depeciation). Cheaper EV's would have less depreciation. I would only expect a big hit if a specific model were identified as having a design flaw (eg air cooled batteries with a short lifetime if driven in hot weather).What about future costs of an ev? The resale value?