Let me put this in terms you might understand.
In a modern car that compensates for knocking due to lower than necessary octane, what are the long term effects?
01cbr, In a modern car that has knock control your fuel mileage will suffer, but only in areas of the operating regime that have spark knock tendencies. In my experience that is mostly WOT or near WOT operating points.
Additionally using low grade fuel when high grade is called for increases the risk of pre-ignition at low speed high load conditions (note that spark knock and pre ignition are two totally different events.) This is where high octane fuel can save the engine from self destruction.
The reason for this loss in fuel mileage is because your cylinder peak pressure location is retarded beyond the optimal values. Combustion engineers use a few rule of thumbs for optimal mechanical efficiency with respect to combustion. You generally look for peak pressure to be at 10-15 degress ATDC, and another measure called CA50 (which is the crank angle that 50% of the charge mixture has burned) which occurs between 7-9 degrees ATDC.
When you retard spark timing due to active knock control you cause these values to fall outside of this range, reducing mechanical efficiency.
Given that knock control is mostly active at WOT or near WOT, I think the change in observed mileage is due to ethanol content and less so for octane number.
Fiinally, in a new vehicle that calls for pump octane 91 or higher, you run the risk of pre-ignition damage. Note the knock control
cannot detect pre-ignition, it only detects spark knock. Newer automatic transmission shift strategies are much more aggressive with lots of locked torque converter operation and lots of low speed high load conditions to improve fuel economy. This is prime for pre-ignition events, as witnessed by early ford 3.5V6 eco-boost, as well as the Hyundai 2.0T. Ford had changed the shift strategy to avoid operation in areas at risk for pre-ignition, and I have yet to see many Hyundai failures in the field.
As an aside, the new skyactiv from mazda has ion sensing through the spark plugs, and that is the only system that I know of that can detect pre-emptively detect pre-ignition.