How`s your house pricing doing?..

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Glenn/RZ500

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Here in central Ontario I`m down about 65 grand from last summer. Used the RBC calculator(FWIW), from 725 to 661, adding in the upgrades takes it to 699. Consider too that nothing is moving here, same listings forever on Realtor.ca Any of us here approaching the age of 70 that sure puts a different look at downsizing, or even CHIP or going into the olde folks concentration camps.. :p .. at huge monthly rates. What say you?
 
Glenn/RZ500 said:
Here in central Ontario I`m down about 65 grand from last summer. Used the RBC calculator(FWIW), from 725 to 661, adding in the upgrades takes it to 699. Consider too that nothing is moving here, same listings forever on Realtor.ca Any of us here approaching the age of 70 that sure puts a different look at downsizing, or even CHIP or going into the olde folks concentration camps.. :p .. at huge monthly rates. What say you?
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I track our house value for interest but in 100K increments. Anything finer than that is just guessing (and the 100K bucket I expect could still be wrong). I ran the RBC calculator and do not agree with its output (and it estimates to the nearest $100 so it is written by morons and/or marketing and not anyone that understands data and significant digits). While the price they predict isn't insane, if I wanted to sell it in two months and not 12 months (or more), I'd need to price about 100K lower. Why bother listing down to to $100 if you miss by $100K? It takes your starting price and multiplies it by a growth factor. I don't know how finely refined that growth factor is (eg province wide, rate per postal code, does it change by type of housing, etc).

It's hard for reverse mortgage to be the best choice financially. Best case is probably someone with a defined time to leave (eg. already working through a waitlist for the next dwelling) and not trying to maximize estate. Assuming you own the house clear, selling the house and everything you don't need at the next location probably gets you close to 650K. What is your time horizon until you expect to be in LTC (which is substantially government funded and much cheaper for the occupant than a retirement home)? At 8K/month (plus index to inflation), your house money lasts ~11 years. Realistically, you have some other income so you aren't pulling the entire 8K out of your house money. If you can reduce the draw to 5.5K/mo, the house money lasts 20 years. Very few people live in a retirement home for 20 years. If you can withdraw 4.5K/mo, your house lasts essentially forever and you die with approximately the amount you put in.
 
The downward trend in the current housing market has me leaning towards working another year or two longer than I had planned which is ok. I’m going to be 63 in a few weeks ,I enjoy what I do and can make pretty good money at it with some tax benefits. Retirement is great but not much fun if you’re broke. The original plan was to sell our current home and down size somewhere out of the orbit of Toronto, probably a good hour or two east.I would never buy without selling firm first. My wife did a little real estate law in her practice and believe me having the the sale of your house fall apart while committed to purchasing another is not a good situation to be in.Putting a value our house is also difficult, it’s 100 year old house on a large property in the town of Brooklin with a legal guest house/accessory apartment.Not many comparable properties have sold to put an accurate evaluation of ours.
 
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we bought at 970k, ran up to about 1.4-1.5 during the insanity, and are now hovering around 1.2-1.3.

Friends bought for 1.2 nearby, ran up to 1.7-1.8, and have now been sitting on the market for 8 months with no offers above 1.55….which they rejected.

We offered 1.5 and they rejected it (without agent) as they feel they can get 1.6 (with agent).

It’s all over the map and houses started moving but they’re all being way below original asking.

Bungalow on our street sold for 972k a few months ago. Everything else is sitting.
 
Bobo said:
The downward trend in the current housing market has me leaning towards working another year or two longer than I had planned which is ok. I’m going to be 63 in a few weeks ,I enjoy what I do and can make pretty good money at it with some tax benefits. Retirement is great but not much fun if you’re broke. The original plan was to sell our current home and down size somewhere out of the orbit of Toronto, probably a good hour or two east.I would never buy without selling firm first. My wife did a little real estate law in her practice and believe me having the the sale of your house fall apart while committed to purchasing another is not a good situation to be in.
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A friend was part of a five house conditional chain. It all came apart when one buyers cousin showed up to a home inspection and even though there was no knob and tube visible and there were letters from electricians that all knob and tube had been removed, the cousin convinced the buyers it was definitely there as nobody removes it all and they would die in a fire. That collapsed the whole chain. Bollocks. Sellers were living in the house with their kids and had paid to have all wiring redone. I am leery of flips but when an owner lives there for many years, I hope they did what they could to make it safe.
 
GreyGhost said:
A friend was part of a five house conditional chain. It all came apart when one buyers cousin showed up to a home inspection and even though there was no knob and tube visible and there were letters from electricians that all knob and tube had been removed, the cousin convinced the buyers it was definitely there as nobody removes it all and they would die in a fire. That collapsed the whole chain. Bollocks. Sellers were living in the house with their kids and had paid to have all wiring redone. I am leery of flips but when an owner lives there for many years, I hope they did what they could to make it safe.
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Could have just been a tactic to get a better deal and it backfired spectacularly.

First thing I look for is aluminum wiring and use that to my advantage.
 
mimico_polak said:
Could have just been a tactic to get a better deal and it backfired spectacularly.

First thing I look for is aluminum wiring and use that to my advantage.
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They were out completely. No attempt to negotiate. Just said after home inspection that they were withdrawing offer.
 
I already posted it before somewhere - my friend is re agent so I saw all the comparables - townhouses in Aurora about 150-250K down from the peak (condos more, freehold less). generally not much being sold and some keep re-listing not dropping much for the second year now...
 
GreyGhost said:
They were out completely. No attempt to negotiate. Just said after home inspection that they were withdrawing offer.
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They could have had financing problems or second thoughts and used it as a tactic. I have seen that before.

There are a bunch of shifty DIY replacements where just visible wires are done, a check to see if there was an ESA notification (permit) is a good step.
 
GreyGhost said:
I track our house value for interest but in 100K increments. Anything finer than that is just guessing (and the 100K bucket I expect could still be wrong). I ran the RBC calculator and do not agree with its output (and it estimates to the nearest $100 so it is written by morons and/or marketing and not anyone that understands data and significant digits). While the price they predict isn't insane, if I wanted to sell it in two months and not 12 months (or more), I'd need to price about 100K lower. Why bother listing down to to $100 if you miss by $100K? It takes your starting price and multiplies it by a growth factor. I don't know how finely refined that growth factor is (eg province wide, rate per postal code, does it change by type of housing, etc).

It's hard for reverse mortgage to be the best choice financially. Best case is probably someone with a defined time to leave (eg. already working through a waitlist for the next dwelling) and not trying to maximize estate. Assuming you own the house clear, selling the house and everything you don't need at the next location probably gets you close to 650K. What is your time horizon until you expect to be in LTC (which is substantially government funded and much cheaper for the occupant than a retirement home)? At 8K/month (plus index to inflation), your house money lasts ~11 years. Realistically, you have some other income so you aren't pulling the entire 8K out of your house money. If you can reduce the draw to 5.5K/mo, the house money lasts 20 years. Very few people live in a retirement home for 20 years. If you can withdraw 4.5K/mo, your house lasts essentially forever and you die with approximately the amount you put in.
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I`ll be 70 in 2027, mortgage free for over a decade and no other debt. Savings and investments are good, work and gov`t pensions are OK. Reverse mortgage is a minor consideration, downsizing to a purchased condo possible, maintenance fees are absurd in most of them, and an independent living, retirement living set-up is possible. A neighbor went to Winchester Glen in N. Oshawa, it`s beautiful, another is Port Perry Villa and a couple here at home I`ve looked at. I`ve discussed my health issues here and was the OP on a reverse mortgage thread, there`s always lots of varied and good input on GTA. For me this is all just blue sky at this point trying to figure out the future. No wife,(that`s enough of that), no kids, and one true friend who I see very little of, he`s younger and in the wife, kids, work blender. My family lifespan works out to be 73-ish counting 13 family members averaged in. I ran some numbers and figure I could go pretty much forever in a real nice independent living setup, all financials figured in. Gotta` have a place to park a new Low Rider ST too. 😜 Sooo....who knows.
 
GreyGhost said:
I track our house value for interest but in 100K increments. Anything finer than that is just guessing (and the 100K bucket I expect could still be wrong). I ran the RBC calculator and do not agree with its output (and it estimates to the nearest $100 so it is written by morons and/or marketing and not anyone that understands data and significant digits). While the price they predict isn't insane, if I wanted to sell it in two months and not 12 months (or more), I'd need to price about 100K lower. Why bother listing down to to $100 if you miss by $100K? It takes your starting price and multiplies it by a growth factor. I don't know how finely refined that growth factor is (eg province wide, rate per postal code, does it change by type of housing, etc).
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I ran the calculator, it was wildly off — over by 40% on my place in Burlington. Under by 20% for my place in Markham.
GreyGhost said:
It's hard for reverse mortgage to be the best choice financially. Best case is probably someone with a defined time to leave (eg. already working through a waitlist for the next dwelling) and not trying to maximize estate. Assuming you own the house clear, selling the house and everything you don't need at the next location probably gets you close to 650K. What is your time horizon until you expect to be in LTC (which is substantially government funded and much cheaper for the occupant than a retirement home)? At 8K/month (plus index to inflation), your house money lasts ~11 years. Realistically, you have some other income so you aren't pulling the entire 8K out of your house money. If you can reduce the draw to 5.5K/mo, the house money lasts 20 years. Very few people live in a retirement home for 20 years. If you can withdraw 4.5K/mo, your house lasts essentially forever and you die with approximately the amount you put in.
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If you have equity in your house, pull a conventional mortgage and put the funds into a wealth managers hands. The mortgage will be at 3%, the investment return probably triple. You can arbitrage the rates much more cost effectively than a reverse mortgage.
 
Mad Mike said:
I ran the calculator, it was wildly off — over by 40% on my place in Burlington. Under by 20% for my place in Markham.

If you have equity in your house, pull a conventional mortgage and put the funds into a wealth managers hands. The mortgage will be at 3%, the investment return probably triple. You can arbitrage the rates much more cost effectively than a reverse mortgage.
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Any recommendation for a wealth manager that can be trusted? That`s interesting, PM me if you`d rather, Thanks.
 
Glenn/RZ500 said:
Here in central Ontario I`m down about 65 grand from last summer. Used the RBC calculator(FWIW), from 725 to 661, adding in the upgrades takes it to 699. Consider too that nothing is moving here, same listings forever on Realtor.ca Any of us here approaching the age of 70 that sure puts a different look at downsizing, or even CHIP or going into the olde folks concentration camps.. :p .. at huge monthly rates. What say you?
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From peak 2023 I’m down 33% in Burlington ( ouch) par, perhaps up a smidge in Markham, and up 25% in Timmins.

Overall I’m down about 10% overall.
 
Glenn/RZ500 said:
Any recommendation for a wealth manager that can be trusted? That`s interesting, PM me if you`d rather, Thanks.
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I use TD Wealth, I’ve used Fisher too - I actually liked fisher more but TD has a family plan that lets my kids get their affairs managed in my portfolio before they reach the minimums for wealth management.

TD will also handle make it easy - they’ll manage your mortgage to investment logistics with a real financial pro (vs a McBranch financial advisor).
 
Mad Mike said:
I ran the calculator, it was wildly off — over by 40% on my place in Burlington. Under by 20% for my place in Markham.

If you have equity in your house, pull a conventional mortgage and put the funds into a wealth managers hands. The mortgage will be at 3%, the investment return probably triple. You can arbitrage the rates much more cost effectively than a reverse mortgage.
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So you’re saying take out (for example) a 100-200-300-? k mortgage and use those funds to invest?

Dicey proposition but I’ve seen it both work great, and fail spectacularly.
 
mimico_polak said:
So you’re saying take out (for example) a 100-200-300-? k mortgage and use those funds to invest?

Dicey proposition but I’ve seen it both work great, and fail spectacularly.
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If the money from the house has no purpose later in life or in the estate, it may be a worthwhile roll of the dice. Best case, you have hundreds of thousands more to enjoy life with while remaining in your home. Worst-case, investments drop and it sucks some of your existing cashflow. Smart investment decisions limit the downside. Something like bank stocks will pay a dividend that almost covers the interest part of the mortgage. At that point, if stocks go up, you can sell some to fund adventure. If stocks drop, let them ride.

As an example, 100K mortgage at 3% for 25 years is $473/mo. If you bought 100K of BNS, that gives you a dividend of 357/mo. So worst case, it hurts cashflow by 120/mo (although the loss may offset gains elsewhere and save you some tax). Realistic case is stock appreciates by ~8%/year on top of dividend (average over last 5 years) so that allows you to draw off another 666/mo. So moving some money around results in minus 120 to plus 550/mo for every 100K. It is up to each person to decide how big a swing to take. Size of loan (and whether you get one at all) is also dictated by bank looking at your income. For many retirees, that is an obstacle that is hard to deal with.
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