Coronavirus

[xfactor]

https://aarstechnica.com/science/2020/05/covid-19-resurges-in-reopened-countries-wuhan-sees-first-cluster-in-a-month/?comments=1&post=38889285

We have to ask ourselves, is the aim to keep the infection at 0 or at R0. They're not the same. As long as the hospitals can cope with it and we have protection against the vulnerable and at risk population, then I don't see the infection rate as a huge factor. We have learned a lot in the past 5 months about this damn thing that we can apply moving forward, so the second wave is not exactly the second wave of the Spanish flu.

 

[xfactor]

They're going to devalue the currency by printing more money.

Taxes are loud and noisy. There's already precedence set with Quantitative Easing, they're just going to Turbo-Boost QE. There will be runaway inflation and people will be able to afford less for the same dollar. Everybody suffers, but especially those who saved for a rainy day, because their nest egg will shrink noticeably.

This article explains it well:

Why Inflation Is Inevitable after Coronavirus Bailout

The millions of Americans receiving the $1,200 aid check in the coming weeks will feel relief now but inevitably suffer down the road, as inflation rises.

econamericas.com

Read the article and I feel like that the fact she didn't even mention the velocity of money as a major point against her. And looking her up, I take anyone who has "block chain" in their research as someone who will always take the contrarian viewpoint against FIAT. Looking up econamericas, it comes up as a very socialist agenda in their outlook. I'm a socialist at heart but I wouldn't call this a balanced piece.

 

[Brian P]

Infection rate R below 1 leads to the infection eventually dying out, but it takes longer (much longer) the closer it is to 1 as opposed to 0. Anything higher than 1 (infection spreading and expanding), we're in trouble. It MUST be kept below 1.

If we could get everyone, and I mean everyone, to shelter in place for a couple of weeks - no going out for food, no cheating - the infection would be gone afterward. Anyone who had it but didn't know it at the start of that period, would either not have it, or have it and know it (and continue isolating), at the end of that period. Impossible to achieve. We haven't got the wherewithal to do it. China did it. Spain tried really hard (but they started too late and didn't nip the situation in the bud).

The other choice is to test everyone, and quarantine anyone who has it ... It seems that Wuhan plans to do that, in order to cut off anything remaining of the tail end of this epidemic. We haven't gotten our act together enough to do that.

 

[Brian P]

Read the article and I feel like that the fact she didn't even mention the velocity of money as a major point against her. And looking her up, I take anyone who has "block chain" in their research as someone who will always take the contrarian viewpoint against FIAT. Looking up econamericas, it comes up as a very socialist agenda in their outlook. I'm a socialist at heart but I wouldn't call this a balanced piece.

I suspect that there is going to be a long period of people not spending, fearful to go out, fearful to do anything, high unemployment, fear of losing their job (or not getting another one), etc., which will counter the inflationary pressure of money-printing that would happen during more normal times. But I'm no macro-economist.

 

[ChrisCBR]

They're going to devalue the currency by printing more money.

Taxes are loud and noisy. There's already precedence set with Quantitative Easing, they're just going to Turbo-Boost QE. There will be runaway inflation and people will be able to afford less for the same dollar. Everybody suffers, but especially those who saved for a rainy day, because their nest egg will shrink noticeably.

This article explains it well:

Why Inflation Is Inevitable after Coronavirus Bailout

The millions of Americans receiving the $1,200 aid check in the coming weeks will feel relief now but inevitably suffer down the road, as inflation rises.

econamericas.com

I think we might see the opposite; deflation. With less things to spend money on, more uncertainty about what the future holds and the recent forced savings of many people, we might see deflation. Many people who dont normally save are saving and it might catch on..

 

[GreyGhost]

I think we might see the opposite; deflation. With less things to spend money on, more uncertainty about what the future holds and the recent forced savings of many people, we might see deflation. Many people who dont normally save are saving and it might catch on..

I have faith that JT can light enough money on fire to ensure that any potential amount saved is offset with pet projects to ensure there is no deflation.

 

[GreyGhost]

The bar collapse has started. Today Crocodile Rock and Emmas Back Porch both called it quits after 30 years. Restaurants may survive (many won't it's going to be rough), but bars are toast unless they own the building. It will be a long time before you have have a crowded booze filled venue. It's cheaper for them to pull the plug now and restart in 12 or 18 months when they are allowed to reopen in a profitable capacity.

 

[regder]

For those arguing against the current government spending, what is the alternative? Let's assume that the shutdown of non essential services was and continues to be necessary to minimize the spread of the virus. We're not going to have a clearer answer to that until well after this is past, so for this purpose I will posit that the path taken by the large majority of the world was the correct one.

Without the large infusion of cash as the government has done, would leave a massive number of people unemployed, unable to pay basic bills. Vast number of companies would fold as a direct result of the temporary business closure and lack of consumer confidence.

The country wouldn't come out of the situation with the same level of debt, but in a massive depression. So far, consumer confidence seems to be pretty solid, business closures have been fairly minimal, and the stock market hasn't taken a complete nose dive off a cliff.

Yes, we're going to make some very tough decisions on how to pay for all of this once we get to the other side, but what are the options?

 

[Brian P]

I'm certainly not arguing against governments spending their way through this. There is no other choice but to do it. There are no other viable options. If they don't do so, there will be no small businesses, no restaurants or bars, on the other side of this.

 

[PrivatePilot]

We have to ask ourselves, is the aim to keep the infection at 0 or at R0. They're not the same. As long as the hospitals can cope with it and we have protection against the vulnerable and at risk population, then I don't see the infection rate as a huge factor. We have learned a lot in the past 5 months about this damn thing that we can apply moving forward, so the second wave is not exactly the second wave of the Spanish flu.

Agree. We are not going to reach the point where we all shelter in place long enough for this to die out like Brian suggests - it's not realistic.

And here's the problem - even IF by some miracle we did.....it only takes one person coming across the border unknowingly bringing it across again and spreading it to have it start all over again.

So we need to find a way to keep a happy medium that the hospitals can manage and move forward.

For those arguing against the current government spending, what is the alternative?

I've asked that question several times both here and elsewhere. Lots of cries about the spending right now...but when you present them with that question suddenly, crickets.

 

[GreyGhost]

For those arguing against the current government spending, what is the alternative? Let's assume that the shutdown of non essential services was and continues to be necessary to minimize the spread of the virus. We're not going to have a clearer answer to that until well after this is past, so for this purpose I will posit that the path taken by the large majority of the world was the correct one.

Without the large infusion of cash as the government has done, would leave a massive number of people unemployed, unable to pay basic bills. Vast number of companies would fold as a direct result of the temporary business closure and lack of consumer confidence.

The country wouldn't come out of the situation with the same level of debt, but in a massive depression. So far, consumer confidence seems to be pretty solid, business closures have been fairly minimal, and the stock market hasn't taken a complete nose dive off a cliff.

Yes, we're going to make some very tough decisions on how to pay for all of this once we get to the other side, but what are the options?

I understand the pocketbook needs to be open to get through this. I dislike when pet projects get funded or gov't picks winners and losers with their policies.

For instance, I think CERB is a great temporary idea.

I think 75% wage subsidy (CEWS) is a great idea for companies that need employees but can't afford to pay them (for instance restaurants). I think CEWS is a huge mistake when applied to companies that have no need for employees but use CEWS as it pays better (for instance airlines). If your company doesn't need you, you should get temporarily canned and collect CERB.

The commercial rent program (CECRA) is a complete disaster. On the upside, it won't cost much as the participation rate is abysmal. On the downside, tenants will be clearing out their valuables into storage lockers and leaving vacant units to stop the rent clock as landlords have very little incentive to play along.

 

[PrivatePilot]

The commercial rent program (CECRA) is a complete disaster. On the upside, it won't cost much as the participation rate is abysmal. On the downside, tenants will be clearing out their valuables into storage lockers and leaving vacant units to stop the rent clock as landlords have very little incentive to play along.

From what I've been hearing the problem with the commercial rent program is that it requires the landlords to be part of the process. Many are refusing. So their tenants are just giving up and closing shop.

To me, if I was a landlord, that prospect would scare the living **** out of me and I'd be doing everything possible to HELP my tenants make it through this rough spot...including just cutting them a break on the rent somehow.

To just say "Nope, not gonna play ball - oh, wait, you've stopped paying rent because you can't afford it? Well, see ya later!" seems like suicide to me. Honestly, if 25% of businesses in a strip mall don't make it through this what the HELL are landlords going to do with all those vacant units? Not only is it a potentially long term financial drag at that point, but it's cosmetically crappy as well when it comes to places like strip malls when half of the windows are papered over - many of us have seen what happens when one of these types of places reaches critical mass with vacancies - eventually the few businesses that are left also close up and leave because nobody goes to that plaza anymore because its a ghost town.

Exactly that happened at this plaza in Oshawa. This used to be a bustling plaza back when it's anchor was a K-Mart (for those old enough to remember that), then a Zellers. There was a Swiss chalet in there, a donut shop, and about 20+ other businesses. When the Zellers closed the slide started, but what really killed it was when one by one the tenants left for various reasons. Eventually there was 2 lonely businesses in there still trying to make a go of it but it was cobwebs - the critical mass was lost. Now it's been bare empty for probably 5 years.

 

[GreyGhost]

To just say "Nope, not gonna play ball - oh, wait, you've stopped paying rent because you can't afford it? Well, see ya later!" seems like suicide to me. Honestly, if 25% of businesses in a strip mall don't make it through this what the HELL are landlords going to do with all those vacant units?

In GTA, condos.

Apparently the gov't has hugely mishandled this whole CECRA process. Details on what is and is not covered are not out until at least later this week. Landlords don't even know what they are applying for or agreeing too so they don't want to sign up.

Landlords that choose not to apply should be hit with a vacant commercial tax if the tenant folds. This very strongly encourages them to apply for CECRA and if not, lower the rent to get a new tenant in. Everyone else is getting a ^%$kicking in this economy, I'm not sure why property owners think they deserve to be exempt from the storm.

 

[nobbie48]

You claw back the massive tax dodges from the Uber rich first.....if you do that in an open manner then the average Joe on the street will see things as a bit fairer to them when they need to pay their share.

Unfortunately with the click of a mouse an Uber rich can move assets to a less taxed country. Sales tax on luxury items may be a better way. 13% on a run of the mill car then a sliding scale as the price goes up. Toys will become more expensive.

Capital gains on homes unless reinvesting in a more expensive one.

Butcher the sacred cows, the seniors. I should keep my mouth shut as I'm on that wagon but not all seniors are living on cat food in squalid apartments.

Think about the 75 year old male born in 1945.

Didn't serve in any major war. Born after WWII and too young for Korea.
Enters a job market where males are in reduced supply because a lot got bumped off in WWII.
Didn't have to compete with women in the workplace and got paid better. "Jobs for men only"
Didn't have to compete with foreigners. "No facial hair, no accent, etc."
Could afford a house in Toronto on a working salary.
Pre NAFTA so job security.
Cheap energy
Cheap garbage dumping, screw the environment.
Cheap cottages
Free parking in a lot more places
No or low sales taxes early on
Over 65 and get discounts on senior's days. Isn't that reverse age bias?

We leave our children a polluted near bankrupt country.

JT has announced another give away for seniors, $300 tax free plus another $200 if on GIS. No questions asked.

Safety nets don't work that way. Not all seniors are rolling in dough and that's why means and not age should be the criteria for the giveaways.

Yeah I worked for my stuff but not as hard as I would have if I was born 30 years later.

IMO CPP was meant to be spent in Canada. How many people retire to cheap foreign countries and spend there CPP there?

It's not going to be simple because Canada isn't a simple country. The cost of a house can be 10 time in a hot market area vs a desolate area. Wages and opportunities vary as well.

The point is we can't keep this up but no party will get elected if any of the above becomes part of their platform.

 

[GreyGhost]

JT has announced another give away for seniors, $300 tax free plus another $200 if on GIS. No questions asked.

Safety nets don't work that way. Not all seniors are rolling in dough and that's why means and not age should be the criteria for the giveaways.

The $500 is buying votes not security. He doesn't care if it is the millionaire or the hundredaire, free cash for all gets him far more votes than it loses him.

 

[nobbie48]

In GTA, condos.

Apparently the gov't has hugely mishandled this whole CECRA process. Details on what is and is not covered are not out until at least later this week. Landlords don't even know what they are applying for or agreeing too so they don't want to sign up.

Landlords that choose not to apply should be hit with a vacant commercial tax if the tenant folds. This very strongly encourages them to apply for CECRA and if not, lower the rent to get a new tenant in. Everyone else is getting a ^%$kicking in this economy, I'm not sure why property owners think they deserve to be exempt from the storm.

There was a thread going where someone's landlord was being a prick and the general advice was to move as the landlord will eventually get even. A restaurant on Roncesvalles is closing because the landlord won't apply for the program. Further reading into it the tenant had sued the landlord a year or so back.

The program isn't user friendly. The USA isn't better. Joe's store needs a loan and goes to his county bank. They won't give it to him and aren't an approved bank to access government money. The bank that can access government money won't talk to him.

Papered windows scare buyers away from adjacent stores. You might feel like buying a new shirt but if you walk into a mall and see half the windows papered you might change your mind in case your number comes up next.

When I bought my industrial unit during a recession 75% of the units were empty. Owners still had to pay taxes and maintenance fees.

Sometimes I wondered if I should have kept my unit and collected rent instead of selling it. Not now. Letting it sit empty would have cost about $10K a year and it could sit for 10 years. Bad math.

 

[nobbie48]

I think we might see the opposite; deflation. With less things to spend money on, more uncertainty about what the future holds and the recent forced savings of many people, we might see deflation. Many people who dont normally save are saving and it might catch on..

In publicly traded corporations the first sign of death is to stop growing. Share prices drop. Pension plans get hammered. No one wants shares in a company with declining profits. There will be a shortage of toilet paper in the executive washrooms.

 

[Evoex]

If they implement it it’s easy enough to deal with. Sell house and pass wealth directly. Obviously room for abuse but there’s ways around.

exactly what my dad says he intends to do and this goes back a few years.

 

[nobbie48]

Going off on a tangent, Covid 19 dropped on us fast. We didn't take it seriously. We were unready and unable to come up with the resources to fight it. The "I have my rights" attitudes don't help.

I'm a socialist at heart but socialism in a bit the same except it has been creeping up on us slowly. At some point we will not have the resources to fight the problem. Covid 19 will be an easier problem to solve.

Some of the bail outs we're seeing are making things worse. If "Let the weak die" works for CV-19 it should work for businesses as well.

 

[Evoex]

The bar collapse has started. Today Crocodile Rock and Emmas Back Porch both called it quits after 30 years. Restaurants may survive (many won't it's going to be rough), but bars are toast unless they own the building. It will be a long time before you have have a crowded booze filled venue. It's cheaper for them to pull the plug now and restart in 12 or 18 months when they are allowed to reopen in a profitable capacity.

wow croc rock eh, damn.