Any GTAM'ers own an electric vehicle? | Page 172 | GTAMotorcycle.com

Any GTAM'ers own an electric vehicle?

Evoex

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I'm with you. I have always said that Tesla's biggest challenge is the same as every tech company -- crossing the chasm.

They have exhausted the supply of early adopters and now have to make cars that compete based on more than cache and curiosity. The big challenge in that is to get early adopters to make a second purchase and for mass market buyers to make their first purchase, you must be competitive with features, benefits and cost of ownership. Tesla had the right marketing plan when they announced the $35000 model 3, their problem is horrible execution. They stumbled ramping up, they failed to hit cost targets -- the Model 3 business plan is more than 2 years behind. Tesla now has to make some risky moves in order to preserve themselves -- they are not flailing yet, but it seems close. Missing targets rattles shareholders and customers, something Tesla doesn't need right now.

If I were Elon I'd do a couple of things:

1) Open the dealer network. Simply stocking the network would drive full production for a year.
2) Make a pickup truck, make it fast. Trucks are simpler designs when it comes to suspension and bodywork, they are also have the highest margins, and the mass of a truck motor and tranny and fuel cell is almost identical to a battery with equivalent range.
Nailed it, they are tech company first and automotive second.
 

Wingboy

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If i were Elon,i'd put a Gixxer in space.:iconbiggrin:
 

Brian P

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I'm with you. I have always said that Tesla's biggest challenge is the same as every tech company -- crossing the chasm.

They have exhausted the supply of early adopters and now have to make cars that compete based on more than cache and curiosity. The big challenge in that is to get early adopters to make a second purchase and for mass market buyers to make their first purchase, you must be competitive with features, benefits and cost of ownership. Tesla had the right marketing plan when they announced the $35000 model 3, their problem is horrible execution. They stumbled ramping up, they failed to hit cost targets -- the Model 3 business plan is more than 2 years behind. Tesla now has to make some risky moves in order to preserve themselves -- they are not flailing yet, but it seems close. Missing targets rattles shareholders and customers, something Tesla doesn't need right now.

If I were Elon I'd do a couple of things:

1) Open the dealer network. Simply stocking the network would drive full production for a year.
2) Make a pickup truck, make it fast. Trucks are simpler designs when it comes to suspension and bodywork, they are also have the highest margins, and the mass of a truck motor and tranny and fuel cell is almost identical to a battery with equivalent range.
I've had doubts about the early-adopters versus long-term sustained demand since the day of that Model 3 announcement when they took a couple hundred thousand pre-orders in a very short time. Evidently now, if you want a Tesla (any model), you can get one in a few weeks, which is indicative of no order backlog. Perhaps there is some backlog for specific order configurations that they haven't started building (or just started building).

Closing the dealer/showroom network represents eating a pretty big sunk cost and it reeks of desperation. When you get into the mass market, a pretty big percentage of buyers don't order-to-spec and wait; they make the rounds to the dealers and find something that a dealer has in stock and buy it on the spot. That's what I did the last time I bought a new car: old one was in the process of breaking, didn't want to pay to fix it and couldn't afford the down-time, made the rounds, found what I wanted at a local dealer, test-drove (another thing Tesla evidently isn't going to allow), made the deal. No waiting (couldn't). I drive cars until there is a foreseeable impending major repair that isn't worth the time or effort to do, which means the next go-around will probably be the same. Means it won't be a Tesla!

The pickup truck is a fair point and a couple of upstarts seem to be in the works ... but Ford is going to beat them to market ... and have an established dealer network. Regarding trucks being "simpler" .... not really; the front end is the same, and a leaf spring live axle arrangement with a drive shaft up the middle eats a lot of space that could otherwise be batteries. I like the Rivian's mechanical layout (I just don't think they'll make it to production). 4 wheel independent suspension allows the motor and gear reducer to be chassis-mounted between the drive wheels with the whole drive-unit + suspension mounted on a subframe (Same as what Tesla does) and this eliminates the drive shaft up the middle, and the battery pack can then take up the whole under-floor area between the front and rear wheels without having to allow space for a drive shaft and axle bouncing around underneath there.

The electric F150 might suffer somewhat from sharing its platform with a combustion-engine vehicle. In an optimized pickup truck dedicated to be an EV, the independent rear suspension COULD be used to get the load floor lower so that it's easier to get stuff in and out of the bed. But ... Pickup truck owners seem resistant to that, and want the biggest and tallest and most brash-looking vehicle they can find, regardless of practicality.
 

FullMotoJacket

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I like the Rivian's mechanical layout (I just don't think they'll make it to production).
I don't see Bezos sitting back and letting that happen.
 

Evoex

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I don't see Bezos sitting back and letting that happen.
Tesla is a very good example that automotive is on another level in terms of mass mfg. Not something you can always just throw money at to fix/get on track.

Hopefully he's hired/hiring the right people and will listen to them.
 

Brian P

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I don't see Bezos sitting back and letting that happen.
They might be able to get to production if they have enough money behind them, but I have a rough idea of how long it takes to get stuff done in this business, and there's no way it will make it to production in the timeframe that they suggested AND be a thoroughly validated and proven-out product (and Tesla went through their own headaches). And dealer network, and parts availability, and repairs (and Tesla is still having those headaches).
 

FullMotoJacket

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They still want to get GM on board as some sort of supplier of parts and production resources, along with a few other companies in the industry
 

Evoex

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They still want to get GM on board as some sort of supplier of parts and production resources, along with a few other companies in the industry
The big OEMs have a hard enough time getting launches done smoothly when they run the show. You can pick any of them and i would still be skeptical.
 

SunnY S

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in other news, Peugeot is planning reentry into the US and Canada market in the early 2020's

I hope all 3 people who buy their cars enjoy them


(yes this post belongs in this thread, as Peugeot is planning some models with electrification)
 

Iceman

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Well there you have it, the Elon Musk pricing plan. SUV is 10% bigger so it'll cost around 10% more.
Does that seem funny/weird to anyone else?


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SunnY S

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W ell there you have it, the Elon Musk pricing plan. SUV is 10% bigger so it'll cost around 10% more.
Does that seem funny/weird to anyone else?

please explain? SUV is evidently physically bigger using more raw materials, extra glass, perhaps wheels and tires will be larger and updgraded to handle the extra weight of SUV duty? Perhaps the suspension is beefed up adding extra cost? and we are not sure yet, perhaps it has extra features over the Model 3?


I think 10% is entirely reasonable.
 

Evoex

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please explain? SUV is evidently physically bigger using more raw materials, extra glass, perhaps wheels and tires will be larger and updgraded to handle the extra weight of SUV duty? Perhaps the suspension is beefed up adding extra cost? and we are not sure yet, perhaps it has extra features over the Model 3?


I think 10% is entirely reasonable.
It's not the pricing it's the quantifying. I think it's just poor word choice on Musks part.
 

Mad Mike

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...The pickup truck is a fair point and a couple of upstarts seem to be in the works ... but Ford is going to beat them to market ... and have an established dealer network. Regarding trucks being "simpler" .... not really; the front end is the same, and a leaf spring live axle arrangement with a drive shaft up the middle eats a lot of space that could otherwise be batteries. I like the Rivian's mechanical layout (I just don't think they'll make it to production). 4 wheel independent suspension allows the motor and gear reducer to be chassis-mounted between the drive wheels with the whole drive-unit + suspension mounted on a subframe (Same as what Tesla does) and this eliminates the drive shaft up the middle, and the battery pack can then take up the whole under-floor area between the front and rear wheels without having to allow space for a drive shaft and axle bouncing around underneath there.

The electric F150 might suffer somewhat from sharing its platform with a combustion-engine vehicle. In an optimized pickup truck dedicated to be an EV, the independent rear suspension COULD be used to get the load floor lower so that it's easier to get stuff in and out of the bed. But ... Pickup truck owners seem resistant to that, and want the biggest and tallest and most brash-looking vehicle they can find, regardless of practicality.
I look at a truck like this:

Driveline and gas tank are the same weight in a V8 4WD American pickup. Engine bay and transmission tunnel offer enough space to house that battery AND distribute weight identically to an existing pickup. Tesla drive units come in at about 20lbs over a typical 4wd diff and deliver immense HP and torque, it would be simple to frame mount the front and rear -- because the weight is similar to a regular posi diff -- the rear could be solid and unsprung. This means the relatively simple suspension and steering system could be preserved (cheap to design and fast to market).

I think this would be the SUV type pickup, targeted at urban cowboys -- not something designed for commercial work or offroad pounding.
 

PrivatePilot

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I've had doubts about the early-adopters versus long-term sustained demand since the day of that Model 3 announcement when they took a couple hundred thousand pre-orders in a very short time. Evidently now, if you want a Tesla (any model), you can get one in a few weeks, which is indicative of no order backlog. Perhaps there is some backlog for specific order configurations that they haven't started building (or just started building).
It'll be curious in the coming weeks to see what the order wait times for the $35K M3 end up being.

I strongly suspect a lot of those reservation holders that were sitting and waiting for the unicorn to show up may have lost interest (it's been basically 3 years of waiting, lets all remember), or may be also now looking at similar priced alternatives like the Kona, Nero, or Leaf Plus, some of which are better equipped for the money.

Time will tell. My bet is on being able to buy and take delivery of a M3 with little to no delay inside 6 months. Assuming Tesla can actually get their **** together when it comes to the logistics of actually getting a vehicle from the factory to the point of sale...referencing the earlier posts about the delivery nightmare YouTube videos, stories of which there are no shortages of.
 

SunnY S

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It'll be curious in the coming weeks to see what the order wait times for the $35K M3 end up being.

I strongly suspect a lot of those reservation holders that were sitting and waiting for the unicorn to show up may have lost interest (it's been basically 3 years of waiting, lets all remember), or may be also now looking at similar priced alternatives like the Kona, Nero, or Leaf Plus, some of which are better equipped for the money.

Time will tell. My bet is on being able to buy and take delivery of a M3 with little to no delay inside 6 months. Assuming Tesla can actually get their **** together when it comes to the logistics of actually getting a vehicle from the factory to the point of sale...referencing the earlier posts about the delivery nightmare YouTube videos, stories of which there are no shortages of.


Tesla Model 3 demand soars

I'd say they are off to a good start.





Model Y will be the big seller. Just watch.
 

FullMotoJacket

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I can't understand why anyone would want to work for this guy.


 

Brian P

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Evidently Tesla has backtracked on the number of dealers that they plan to close, and backtracked on a pricing change for their autopilot systems that screwed over people who had ordered earlier and were still waiting.

Elon Musk is not a good boss. That's rather well known.
 

Evoex

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Evidently Tesla has backtracked on the number of dealers that they plan to close, and backtracked on a pricing change for their autopilot systems that screwed over people who had ordered earlier and were still waiting.

Elon Musk is not a good boss. That's rather well known.
Does this tie in to the vague price increase i noticed in the news?
 

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