On the risk of it being around side.... while I get people want 100% private sector but IMO this can be mitigated if it is part of the GO system (at least perception).... maybe a PPP to get it going. Still not perfect but people will feel much better it will be around. The advantage of this is expected 10 year ROI vs a short 4 year...
At the same time GO does reduce and cancel routes, like everything in life no guarantees.
I don't think the price is viable. Rail is one of the cheapest ways to move things (operationally, initial capital cost for land is astronomical), hovercraft is one of the most expensive. They are predicting this will only cost $10 more each way? No way in hell.
I can't find a size of the Hoverlink craft quickly. 180 passengers. For comparison, the LCAC could move about 540 people for 1000 gallons/hour average. Assume fuel scales linearly with load that puts this one at ~300 gallons/hour. A 30 minute trip burns ~$1,100 in fuel (Assume diesel at 1.90/L for 567L). Maintenance will probably be on the same order of magnitude. Then you have ports and labour on top as well as tens of millions in capital costs. A full load of passengers would generate 180*30=$5,400. Most of the time, it would be far from full (I expect it would be like commuting where at half the trips are almost empty). Luhoooser.
For comparison, there is one commercially operating hovercraft ferry. Isle of Wight, 10 minute ride, 30 pounds per person. That's about $45 CDN. Scale the trip to 30 minutes and you are looking at $270 round trip per person to be commercially viable. That sounds about right to me from a cost perspective. It obviously will have very few takers. For far less than that I can fly from YYT (or YKZ or CNC3) to YCM. It is probably in the same ballpark price wise as a helicopter (hovercraft will be a little cheaper but you have to deal with longer connections at each end). I know of a few people that routinely chopper back and forth but it is a handful, not the 3M trips a year these blowhards are spouting.
EDIT:
Relevant similar failed venture in Alaska. Expensive to operate, grounded by weather often (obviously worse weather than here).
Operating at an annual multimillion-dollar loss, the hovercraft contracted to travel between the Aleutian community of Akutan and its island airport may soon be history.
www.adn.com
"The hovercraft is way too expensive to operate, and has problems," said Rick Gifford, manager of the Aleutians East Borough, which owns and operates the vessel that rides above the water on a cushion of air between the new airport on Akun Island, and the village and seafood processing hub of Akutan about seven miles away.
The future is a helicopter or landing craft. The two options are actively under consideration, and a decision should be made soon based on cost, he said. The hovercraft costs $3 million a year to operate, and only brings in $500,000.
The borough hopes the replacement transport, helicopter or boat, will get the job done for $1 million a year, Gifford said.
:format(webp)/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/news/gta/2022/09/14/hovercraft-service-plans-to-start-toronto-to-niagara-run-next-summer/hoverlink_2.jpg)
www.thestar.com
