Are we on the cusp of a recession ?

chiller

chiller

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We have :

- Oil is at its lowest level years
- New Oil projects are not being pushed forward (obviously)
- Target closes all stores
- Mexx closing all stores
- Sony closing all stores

Just curious what everyone's thoughts are ...
 
The loss of the Sony stores is not a big deal. They were empty half the time anyway. Sony isn't boutique enough like Apple and people would rather just got to Futureshop to get Sony consumer products. Sony closing those stores has less to do with our economy and more to do with poor TV sales (the HD market is saturated and content isn't delivered 4K to masses yet) and the death of point and shoot cameras due to cell phone cameras.

Target missed the mile when they launched in Canada. They were selling Walmart spec products at higher prices. The reason Target in the states was so popular with Canadians was the prices. Once those were gone people stopped buying.
 
CruisnGrrl said:
not on the cusp, we're still in a recession
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Economics major?

fyi:

(According to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research (the official arbiter of U.S. recessions) the US recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, and thus extended over 18 months.)
 
chiller said:
- Target closes all stores
- Mexx closing all stores
- Sony closing all stores
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The retail industry closing stores is a problem in itself (thousand of people scrambling to get a job, etc), but let's just say that as an economic indicator, it shows that consumer confidence is still very low.

BUt there are bigger concerns: the oil and the real state situation. What could screw things really badly is the housing "bubble" bursting, even when there are some people arguing that it is not even a bubble to start with. The argument of real state "adjustments" have been going on for 3-4 years now... just keep in mind that house sales declined almost 6 % across the country from November to December... which could be the beginning of the "adjustment"...
 
Canadian exports will be strong due to the weak loonie.
 
MarcosSantiago said:
What could screw things really badly is the housing "bubble" bursting, even when there are some people arguing that it is not even a bubble to start with. The argument of real state "adjustments" have been going on for 3-4 years now... just keep in mind that house sales declined almost 6 % across the country from November to December... which could be the beginning of the "adjustment"...
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Housing prices keep going up:


Canadian home prices rise 3.8% to $405,233 average in December

Sales jump 7.9% from the year before.

There are several retailers who tried to make it in Canada. Some failed. Some are still alive & well. The recent Target failure is nothing special, nor out of the ordinary.
If 9/10 people hated the store, it's no wonder.
Big Lots failed here.
Radio Shack.
Sears is hanging by a thread.
K-Mart.
Zellers.
The list goes on.
 
Gary said:
Housing prices keep going up:


Canadian home prices rise 3.8% to $405,233 average in December
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Yes, 3.8%, but.... "According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, prices inched up an average 3.8 per cent on an annual basis to $405,233 in December. That represents the smallest increase since May 2013. "

If this is the start of a trend... eventually prices will go down.
I am not saying it is going to happen.
All what I am saying is, if it happens, we'll get screwed.
 
Who cares about an official recession? If there's a recession but you have a job then there is no recession. If there's no recession but you can't find a job you're in a major recession. Now there might be a blip or housing sales and prices go flat, maybe some other numbers don't look good, shouldn't matter if your a sensible person. But, oh ya, everybody's spending like drunken sailors, frivilous desires outpace needs and personal debt is thru the roof. People with good paying jobs can't miss a paycheck because that would mean backsliding in this keeping up with the jonses society. Why are we this sick? We're not talking depression.
 
MarcosSantiago said:
Yes, 3.8%, but.... "According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, prices inched up an average 3.8 per cent on an annual basis to $405,233 in December. That represents the smallest increase since May 2013. "

If this is the start of a trend... eventually prices will go down.
I am not saying it is going to happen.
All what I am saying is, if it happens, we'll get screwed.
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It's still an increase. And, I'll throw out a logical guess here - I haven't looked it up, but I'd bet Nov & Dec are commonly the 2 slowest months in the R.E. market due to the holidays.

If the so called "housing bubble" does burst, you say "we'll get screwed". Explain.

I don't see more than 5% downside "if" it does happen. That's ok. I've heard corrections are healthy ;-)

There should be quite a few problems when interest rate / mortgage rates go up. Not until.
 
Those stores closed for many different reasons, not all of them related to the state of the economy. Target was just bad judgement and no online presence, Mexx was overpriced goods and a terrible online presence, Sony store was just not that many stores and the goods were sold (often cheaper) at many other more easily accessible outlets.

Where I would be concerned is with anyone working in the tar sands crude industry since the world price of crude changes whether or not tar sands oil is profitable. Hence the 1800 jobs being lost from Suncor right now. When the world price of crude goes back up, those people are rehired and production goes up again. This has happened a few times over the past few years. It also shows that as a country, we have to have something a bit more robust as a major source of income and exports.
 
Gary said:
It's still an increase. And, I'll throw out a logical guess here - I haven't looked it up, but I'd bet Nov & Dec are commonly the 2 slowest months in the R.E. market due to the holidays.
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You are correct, these are slow months for real estate sales. And that could be the explanation. But...

Let's look at the numbers because it seems to be that we are talking about different things - I said sales declined almost 6%, and you said sales increased 7.9%. We are both correct. Let me clarify.

The number of sales was down 5.8 % nationally in December, compared with November (month to month).
Still, sales increased 7.9% on a yearly basis.

So, the yearly number looks good because we had a good year, compared to last year. And month-to-month declines are not a big deal... unless they start happening every month!!




Gary said:
If the so called "housing bubble" does burst, you say "we'll get screwed". Explain.
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Well, if the market is overvalued and it adjusts overtime, then the wealth of Canadians who own property will be reduced... example, many of us are betting our property will help us with retirement. What if it doesn't? Or, what if the house is worth less in the market than my mortgage? There are a number of chain reactions that could happen.

So, Deutsche Bank says homes are 63% overvalued, and TD Bank says 10%. Choose a number in between. Apply it to your own net worth. How much is the difference?



Gary said:
I don't see more than 5% downside "if" it does happen. That's ok. I've heard corrections are healthy ;-)
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They are healthy... but -63% is going to hurt a lot of people.
 
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MarcosSantiago said:
Well, if the market is overvalued and it adjusts overtime, then the wealth of Canadians who own property will be reduced... example, many of us are betting our property will help us with retirement. What if it doesn't? Or, what if the house is worth less in the market than my mortgage? There are a number of chain reactions that could happen.
So, Deutsche Bank says homes are 63% overvalued, and TD Bank says 10%. Choose a number in between. Apply it to your own net worth. How much is the difference?

They are healthy... but -63% is going to hurt a lot of people.
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Fear mongers are everywhere. The Deutsche Bank / TD numbers you posted are living proof. How can we believe anything?
House prices were supposed to flatten out in the 60's. My Dad bought a brand new house in 1955. He paid $8200.00. He never thought the home would be worth >$200K. He was wrong. I bought my first house for $37,500. I never thought it would be worth >$200K. It is.

Not sure how investing in a home "for retirement" works. I'm retired. I own my home. I've been mortgage free for over 20 yrs. Only advantage I can see is, I have no mortgage payments. All the other bills still keep coming. I need a place to live, and I like my house - don't want to "reap the rewards" and look to pay rent. So is that how the "investment" part works?
Why would anyone plan on retiring with a mortgage?
 
Gary said:
Fear mongers are everywhere. The Deutsche Bank / TD numbers you posted are living proof. How can we believe anything?
House prices were supposed to flatten out in the 60's. My Dad bought a brand new house in 1955. He paid $8200.00. He never thought the home would be worth >$200K. He was wrong. I bought my first house for $37,500. I never thought it would be worth >$200K. It is.

Not sure how investing in a home "for retirement" works. I'm retired. I own my home. I've been mortgage free for over 20 yrs. Only advantage I can see is, I have no mortgage payments. All the other bills still keep coming. I need a place to live, and I like my house - don't want to "reap the rewards" and look to pay rent. So is that how the "investment" part works?
Why would anyone plan on retiring with a mortgage?
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Oh Gary! Now you should approach your financial advisor about a reverse mortgage to milk that equity out of the property and into your pocket my friend. lol

A little tongue in cheek quip.

The new age of retirees has them with lines of credit instead of conventional mortgages, paying interest only. The balance remains. And when rates go up, you will see the line up at the soup kitchen grow pretty fast.


Now, is the sky falling? I don't think so. Low oil prices hurts Canadians more than the good over the long run.

We can check this thread next winter and see who has the crystal ball. back to my lunch.


Cheers!!!
 
inreb said:
Who cares about an official recession? If there's a recession but you have a job then there is no recession. If there's no recession but you can't find a job you're in a major recession. Now there might be a blip or housing sales and prices go flat, maybe some other numbers don't look good, shouldn't matter if your a sensible person. But, oh ya, everybody's spending like drunken sailors, frivilous desires outpace needs and personal debt is thru the roof. People with good paying jobs can't miss a paycheck because that would mean backsliding in this keeping up with the jonses society. Why are we this sick? We're not talking depression.
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We became like this due to tv/internet/social media.
We are from a generation that did not live through war where the whole country felt it and had to pitch in (sacrifice).
We created bubble wrap kids and wonder why they are fat and antisocial.
We give kids lavish items for no damn good reason except to show the world that somehow you are a good parent for giving your kid a $500+ cellphone to take to school (elementary school to start).
We give kids gaming systems that cost $500+
We give kids monthly subscriptions to online things such as XBOX live.

We adults rather talk about some tv show instead of interesting conversations.
We adults are becoming dumber and being watered down.

Have you notice that people in Government will answer a question in the most asinine way that is vacuous yet nobody (reporters and us) stops them and say that is a stupid answer and has no substance, now answer the question.

Who allowed this to happen?
Stupid is the new cool. Stupid is the new smart.
 
nakkers said:
Oh Gary! Now you should approach your financial advisor about a reverse mortgage to milk that equity out of the property and into your pocket my friend. lol

A little tongue in cheek quip.

The new age of retirees has them with lines of credit instead of conventional mortgages, paying interest only. The balance remains. And when rates go up, you will see the line up at the soup kitchen grow pretty fast.


Now, is the sky falling? I don't think so. Low oil prices hurts Canadians more than the good over the long run.

We can check this thread next winter and see who has the crystal ball. back to my lunch.


Cheers!!!
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No need for the reverse mtge nakkers. Pockets are in "fine" shape. :-)

I converted my final 5 or 6 yrs of "house debt" from a mtge to a LOC. It made sense for me. Lower interest rate, and I could make almost any payment I wanted to by the month. Being a person that despises debt, I paid it off much quicker, and with less interest fees. I don't understand the mindset of those that think they're "getting ahead" just paying the principal every month. Sorta like leasing a car that can't be used as a tax writeoff I suppose.
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