Fixed. How does Montana compare to the 900,000 sq-km of Ontario that is not the GTA? Pretty similar?
What are the stats for Montana prior to 2001?
Montana's fatality per distance rate in 2007 was 2.45 fatalities per 100,000 miles travelled, which translates to about 3.95 fatalities per 100,000 km travelled.
Ontario's overall fatality rate in 2008 was about 0.51 fatalities per 100,000 km travelled. That's all of Ontario, including the non-GTA areas.
Southern Ontario's population density is 86.4 persons per sq km. Montana's is 2.5 per sq km. Their largest extended metropolitan area is 158,000 people, and most of their remaining 6 "largest" metropolitan areas are smaller than Barrie. You really have to go out of your way to find another vehicle to run into, but they seem to do so in Montana in about 40% of Montana fatality crashes.
The remaining 60% are single vehicle run-off-the-road crashes, which is inverse to Ontario's approx 40% of such crashes.
With respect to the Montana Paradox, that paradox is based on looking at a small period of time immediately before and immediately after imposition of the new speed limits. It would be reasonable to expect that there would have been significant speed differentials in the immediate aftermath where you had a mix of drivers abiding by the new speed limit in conflict with those who chose to ignore the new limits in the face of Montana's comparatively lax speed enforcement, minimal fines, and minimal police presence in the rural areas.
Montana itself has a relatively small statistical base on which to compare from year to year. From 96 to 97, fatalities jumped from 200 to 265 in just one year. That year was, ironically, during the time of no posted speed limits. Two years later in 1999 it was back down to 220. As Montana's DOT themselves admit:
Often it is safer to look at long-term trends, rather than a one-year increase or decrease which may have occurred from something as simple as an unusual winter or statistical variation. A change of 30 fatalities is not significant in Montana and can be caused by simple statistical variation. Perhaps a particular traffic safety intervention had no impact at all, but some other variable created the perceived result.
Looking at the longer term, fatalities dropped significantly during the time of the national 55 mph speed limit. When that was repealed in 1995, Montana rescinded their daytime speed limits and fatalities spiked upwards. Imposing a 75 mph speed limit in 1999 had little effect on overall actual speeds travelled by many because speeding ticket fines were abysmally low. See page 9 at
http://www.mdt.mt.gov/publications/docs/brochures/safety/probid.pdf for the fatality graph over time.
Only recently have speeding fines been raised, still at abysmally low levels by any standard. The short term effect might be contributing to a slight decrease in fatality rates, though those rates are still the highest among all US states.
I. Violation of Statutory Speed Limits Under '61-8-303. 1 to 10 MPH over the speed limit-$20;
11 to 20 MPH over the speed limit-$40;
21 to 30 MPH over the speed limit-$70;
and 31 or more MPH over the speed limit- $100
'61-8-725(1)
Pointing to Montana as some sort of "proof" that higher or even no speed limits at all is somehow safe is flawed on so many levels and simply not borne out by the numbers.