There are 20+ of the fastest riders on earth taking hundreds of laps every weekend of testing and tuning on a variety of conditions, soft rubber, hard rubber, rain rubber. In prototype racing, every season, new regulations, new technology and news tires are introduced. Trying to find the limit of all that new tech/tires and then staying a hair's breadth on the correct side of that limit has been and still remains their one and only job.
All of which, to me, reinforces that the changed denominator is the bikes, not the riders. Especially the Ducati, which is almost 'too good' as Pecco has described it, at providing grip, but has taken away feel at the limit.
It's a strategy that works for Ducati, especially with so many bikes on the grid. If you develop a super fast bike that wins or crashes, your only threat from other manufacturers is if they are second fastest. If they're eighth fastest, they still won't score enough points to touch you, which is exactly how this season is playing out.
And aero is far from new, we're several seasons into that technology, especially for the Europeans.
And the more the aero has dominated, the more random crashing we've seen. You can mark the changing of the guard specifically to Pecco and Ducati winning at the Aragon round in 2021. Since then, winning lots and binning occasionally has defined all the championship contenders. We're just seeing the apotheosis of this now.
I've read interviews from all the contenders this year and if you're to take their expert opinion over our Monday morning quarterbacking: Pecco is quick to blame the Michelins. Martin disagrees and blames the track conditions. Marquez blames his Honda-like riding style and new-found "overconfidence" on the Ducati.
There doesn't seem to be any one single consensus from the people actually riding these machines as to why this has turned into a championship of crashes.
Nothing to do with those same riders not wanting to bite the hand that feeds, risk the Wrath of Tardozzi, and criticise the bike or the rule set that has worked best for them? Pecco has complained about the lack of feel with the bike in the past (e.g. 'too good' comment), and then very quickly come out with clarification and correction.
Not to mention, each runs their own personal counter-intelligence program to put pressure on their rivals and hide weaknesses. Marquez learned from the best in Rossi.
The only time you can believe a rider is after they retire, and even then... (see also: Rossi, V.)
I think 2025 will bring clarity when a former alien will come into his own, given equal machinery and a whole year of testing and experience under his belt.
Maybe. Could be that Marquez resumes the approach he had on the Honda of finding the limits by crashing a lot in practice, and finds a way to stay enough in the limits to stop crashing in races. But that will be more down to his particular generational skill than a lack of skill in the others, I think.
Worth sticking around and watching, IMO!
Meh. I dream that Martin (and a cash infusion from Piaggio) will elevate Aprilia beyond plucky underdog status, that Acosta wills the KTM into consistent competition (Guidotti is gone next year, too, having failed to bring the Ducati magic Bierer was hoping for), and that Yamaha's slow progress speeds up. Honda, I'll just be impressed if they don't pull out altogether. I'm not holding out much hope, though. Dall'Igna is a genius, especially at finding gaps in the regulations.
The rules need a shake-up sooner than 2027, and they need to follow the F1 path and hire an aero expert to develop guidelines that allow for innovation but minimise the impact to other riders, especially in the draft. Of course, as long as Ducati has veto power, it'll never happen... (see also: Devices, ride height)
