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How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

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I know we can recycle batteries. However, is the supply shortage also considering existing EV that may need replacement?

Not to pile on but, just wondering. Can the existing drivers of EV end up with vehicles that won’t have replacement batteries when the time comes?


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At the moment, battery packs are no different from any other part in a vehicle. It's a part with a part number and somewhere there's a supplier that will be making "service parts" as long as there is some demand to do so. If your 1981 Ford Escort blows up its ATX automatic transmission, Ford doesn't make those any more. If your 2012 Leaf battery dies in 2028, Nissan probably won't be making those any more by that time, either.
 
MacDoc said:
It may well be Honda or Toyota that builds out but your objections on no filling station are very minor as it's way too early especially for a country like Canada.
These vehicles are targetted at cities where pollution is rampant and they want a true zero emission vehicle in the long term.
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I assume, that by true zero emission vehicle, you are referring from source-all the way-to-wheel? Again, how is EV powered by electricity from renewable source not the better choice?

MacDoc said:
The tech is moving forward and it's always good to have a second tech in play. The lithium bottleneck could be a real problem for EV growth.
2 years from starting to mine to useful product.....that's a boa constrictor squeezing rapid deployment.
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The problem is that the tech is sucking valuable public resources from already proven technology which desperately needs infrastructure expansion. I have nothing against them playing in the lab on their own dime.

You keep repeating colorfully this lithium bottleneck myth. Can you post, one article from a car or battery/cell maker confirming your concern. Bloomberg or Reuter's is not really what matters here. If anything it's cobalt what is a bit of concern, hence some trying to replace it in the near future for some other element.
 
nakkers said:
I know we can recycle batteries. However, is the supply shortage also considering existing EV that may need replacement?

Not to pile on but, just wondering. Can the existing drives of EV end up with vehicles that won’t have replacement batteries when the time comes?


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When the packs are thermally handled correctly (Tesla; Bolt is too young to be sure, but many expect the same longevity) the packs are experiencing actually far less degradation then originally thought. I presume Nissan, knew they will run into a problem sooner or later, but opted to put up with replacements if necessary rather then make their packs more expensive from the get-go. The Leaf gen 1 cost significantly less, gen 2 is cheaper as well than model 3 or Bolt.
 
Can you post, one article from a car or battery/cell maker confirming your concern
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do you really think they are going to release a statement on that?

Let's listen to the scientists

Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Considerations: Analysis of Potential Bottlenecks in Critical Metals
Author links open overlay panelElsa A.Olivetti1GerbrandCeder23Gabrielle G.Gaustad4XinkaiFu1

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2017.08.019Get rights and content
Referred to by
Sam Jaffe
Vulnerable Links in the Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain
Joule, Volume 1, Issue 2, 11 October 2017, Pages 225-228


The key conclusions of this perspective have shown that the supply of most materials contained within lithium-ion batteries will likely meet the demand for the near future. However, there are potential risks associated with the supply of cobalt. Furthermore, if there is rapid adoption of electric vehicles (incentivized by policy interventions including a carbon tax, higher fuel taxes, and more aggressive Corporate Average Fuel Economy targets), demand could outpace supply for some battery-grade materials (even for lithium in the very near term)
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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435117300442


Summary
Sustained growth in lithium-ion battery (LIB) demand within the transportation sector (and the electricity sector) motivates detailed investigations of whether future raw materials supply will reconcile with resulting material requirements for these batteries.

We track the metal content associated with compounds used in LIBs. We find that most of the key constituents, including manganese, nickel, and natural graphite, have sufficient supply to meet the anticipated increase in demand for LIBs.

There may be challenges in rapidly scaling the use of materials associated with lithium and cobalt in the short term. Due to long battery lifetimes and multiple end uses, recycling is unlikely to provide significant short-term supply.

There are risks associated with the geopolitical concentrations of these elements, particularly for cobalt. The lessons revealed in this work can be relevant to other industries in which the rapid growth of a materials-dependent technology disrupts the global supply of those materials.
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not a myth....a risk....and no one has a handle on the demand curve. China will certainly act to supply itself.
 
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So nothing from a real reference to or directly from a real supplier of packs or cells. Remember, if Panasonic for example, has had issues sourcing Lithium everyone would know about it, since they must report it as a publicly traded company. It's not like they can go .... "Let's not tell anyone until we find another supplier ..."
 
Shortage of lithium "production capacity" is a short-term concern, as the paper mentioned. (In the long term, we don't have to worry about the short term - we just have to get through it.) Cobalt (electrode chemistry in Li-ion batteries) and rare-earth metals (for high-strength permanent magnets used in motors) are bigger concerns because the primary known sources are in not-so-nice parts of the world.
 
Brian P said:
Shortage of lithium "production capacity" is a short-term concern, as the paper mentioned. (In the long term, we don't have to worry about the short term - we just have to get through it.) Cobalt (electrode chemistry in Li-ion batteries) and rare-earth metals (for high-strength permanent magnets used in motors) are bigger concerns because the primary known sources are in not-so-nice parts of the world.
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Thats never been an issue before(Oil, diamonds etc)
 
Brian P said:
Shortage of lithium "production capacity" is a short-term concern, as the paper mentioned. (In the long term, we don't have to worry about the short term - we just have to get through it.) Cobalt (electrode chemistry in Li-ion batteries) and rare-earth metals (for high-strength permanent magnets used in motors) are bigger concerns because the primary known sources are in not-so-nice parts of the world.
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There are about 1 billion cars on the road, and about 100 million produced every year. Today's known 'economically viable' reserves of cobalt and lithium could build 7BILLION NISSAN Leafs. Do the math... we're not in an danger or running out of materials.
 
Yeah, the main problem right now is that there aren't enough mines mining it. That's fixable, it just takes a bit of time.
 
bigpoppa said:
Thats never been an issue before(Oil, diamonds etc)
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Big difference now. Society has changed a lot in the last 5 years .... many things are simply not acceptable anymore. I am not saying that people will abruptly start ignoring DR Congo as a cobalt supplier, but surely every mining company in the world is actively looking for cobalt resources from elsewhere, or labs trying to get rid of cobalt usage altogether.
 
Cobalt Ontario might be a good place to start. Congo is like the Saudi Arabia of cobalt -- it's cheap to extract and plentiful. Since they have had more supply than demand, there has been no economic incentive to develop other cobalt mines. That's changing -- old silver mining towns are getting a second gasp as cobalt prices rise. Take a ride up to Cobalt Ontario, maybe you can stake your own claim.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...host-town-that-tesla-is-bringing-back-to-life
 
Mining in the DRC is the only industry functioning.

And regardless of the civil war
No one there is messing with the golden goose

Deciding to not source minerals from there
Based on a misguided sense
Of social justice will only hurt
The people it's meant to help
 
Well, ideally, you'd be right. But the world does not roll this way ...

Quote
DRC has long been said to have a ‘resource curse’ (playing into cliched stereotypes of the African continent) as it has a great source of nature resources which is not felt in DRC despite its potential for vast amounts of wealth. The control of wealth by semi-autonomous private companies has historically mean that whilst resources such as cobalt have been hugely profitable for elites within the DRC and foreign investors, the state can’t capitalise on its own natural resources. Similarly, an increase in recent years of ASM unregulated cobalt mines mean that local areas cannot benefit and develop from the profits created through proper taxation and therefore reform and regulation are crucial.
Unquote

In another words, sadly, it's never about the ordinary local folks ...
 
Sure.....I'm not naive - completely
about these things

currently in one of the aforementioned
sh*tholes in the mining business

but western companies deciding
to stop mining there because of corruption
does not help anyone

and if you compare the cost/unit to mine there

vs for example a hard rock deep
deposit in Cobalt Ont
It's a brief case study

dirt cheap costs win over political stability
everytime out

shareholders will punish
a mining company that tries otherwise
 
The shareholders can punish all they want their mining company if a company like Tesla will knowingly decides to pay more for Cobalt, as long as it comes from a conform place. You need just under 5kg per car anyways ...
 
Tesla can do whatever they please

But they are not a big enough consumer of any commodity

To move the needle on the mining industry
or commodities market

As for DRC
Cobalt production there
Is a by-product of massive scale
Copper mining
Cobalt is becoming more important
But none of the multibillion dollar
mining projects there will close
Because battery consumers
Want to feel warm and fuzzy

And if you think mining in the DRC
Does not benfit the locals
Read up on Kolwezi
Thriving city with int. Airport
A middle class, hotels and restaurants
Imagine what Kolwezi would be
Without copper mining
 
One airport does not make a happy country or region .... anyway, we could debate it for days and it will not change much regarding the issue. Only the companies buying the product can have a profound impact on the behavior of the mining companies or the countries/governments where the mining is taking place.
 
Mad Mike said:
Cobalt Ontario might be a good place to start. Congo is like the Saudi Arabia of cobalt -- it's cheap to extract and plentiful. Since they have had more supply than demand, there has been no economic incentive to develop other cobalt mines. That's changing -- old silver mining towns are getting a second gasp as cobalt prices rise. Take a ride up to Cobalt Ontario, maybe you can stake your own claim.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...host-town-that-tesla-is-bringing-back-to-life
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a house for 50k? there's hope for millennials yet!
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