Can bike makers bounce back?

[MotoStark]

Interesting read

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/...une/index.html

[gqelements]

Unfortunately the article didn't at all focus on motorcycle industry as a whole but only on CRUISER (and to a much lesser extent touring) lines of select five. No, these lines can't rebound if only because they are by large technologically obsolete.

Eventually people are going to realize that engine rattling, performance-hindering rake angles and all sorts of 'vintage' design traits (err shortcomings) don't belong in modern machine. Then, finally, the entire segment will perish... Cruiser riders will be relegated to junk-yards and niche brands for a truly 'vintage' experience (which is what they seek by shunning modern tourers and designs, right?_.

If the car industry showed the same maddening resistance to progress, we'd still be seeing Model T Fords around... ...Hey remember the 'liberating and character-full' feel of wooden wheels? Lets put those on a CBR! Great idea!

(now i'm going to hide from the inevitable backlash of cruiser-riders...)

PS: To address the article's point about reduction in sales/production of higher displacement models (touring, cruising, whatever...) consider the power output modern 600cc engines/powerplants... Efficiencies and improvements in engine design/technology allowed a modern 600CC super-sport offer power/performance that a 1L power plant designed some 20 years ago. No wonder people are considering cheaper, more efficient lower displacement models.

Anecdote: I recall a 40+ rider that showed up to one of the Fuzzy rides years ago, one day fresh on his new CBR. After the 80 or so clicks we put on during the ride, he pulls off his helmet to reveal an ear-to-ear smile. His only remark was: "I can't believe I wasted 20 years upgrading and boring out Harley and cruiser engines... ...I should have just bought one of these years ago!" ...Now apply that to a sport tourer.

</end rant>

[Riceburner]

don't think you can apply the same argument to sport tourers though. They keep up with tech. Cruisers are all about retro for the most part....so, I'll agree there.

[Syphen]

I think the cruiser market won't fade out soon. It will take 20-50 years for THAT generation to finally completely die off.

The only thing I don't get, is why all these cruiser riders think that a sportbike is that uncomfortable. My F4i is quite comfy and the VFR800's I've ridden, I could have done so for days. I find all the feet forward cruisers to really bother my back but thats just me I guess.

[Red_Liner740]

Who wrote that article? someone with ADD? What was the intent of the article in the first place? it boiled down to telling us a bit of manufacturer history and some useless statistics totally unrelated from manufacturer to manufacturer, and more importantly, totally unrelated to the thesis of the article..."Can bike makes bounce back"...

[WoBblyCaT]

Who wrote that article? someone with ADD? What was the intent of the article in the first place? it boiled down to telling us a bit of manufacturer history and some useless statistics totally unrelated from manufacturer to manufacturer, and more importantly, totally unrelated to the thesis of the article..."Can bike makes bounce back"...

That article was lame. There were no cold hard facts presented and like RL said above, the article didn't match the title. I stopped reading after Honda.

IMHO, buying and riding a cruiser has nothing to do with technology. It's about enjoying the ride at an easy pace. And customizing your bike to be unique .. just like everybody else. It's the retro styling that evokes a memory of the past like a rebel without a cause and gives the owner a feeling that they're badass.

[Brian P]

Large and heavy but simple and low-tech bikes have a limited future. Manufacturers of bikes like that are going to have to get with the times - but don't get the impression that they don't already know it.

It looks very much like 2013 will bring mandatory ABS and mandatory on-board diagnostics (i.e. fuel injection) due to upcoming regulations in the EU. Right now, those regulations are only at the proposal stage, but it's only a matter of time. Motorcycles are sooner or later going to be subject to the same emission regulations as cars. (Right now, cars are at Euro 5 and bikes are at Euro 3 but Euro 4 will be required shortly. Forget about the North American regulations - they're not the ones dictating the level of technology.)

Sooner or later, the regulators are also going to figure out that large-displacement heavy motorcycles have more CO2 emissions than a good many cars ... and then they're going to be subject to CO2 (read: fuel efficiency) regulations.

The technology is out there to do ALL this stuff. What's not quite there yet, is the motivation to get it done.

Outdated dinosaurs have little place in tomorrow's marketplace. Same is true of cars, trucks, motorcycles, and everything else.

I don't exclude the possibility that the large displacement sport bikes are going to be dinosaurs either. There is a lot of room for improvement in both emissions and fuel consumption in those.

[adri]

I think the cruiser market won't fade out soon. It will take 20-50 years for THAT generation to finally completely die off.

The only thing I don't get, is why all these cruiser riders think that a sportbike is that uncomfortable. My F4i is quite comfy and the VFR800's I've ridden, I could have done so for days. I find all the feet forward cruisers to really bother my back but thats just me I guess.

Because young people don't buy cruisers right?

[nakkers]

And the point is??????

This provides no insight into the future of bikes sales. Cruiser or otherwise.

Yes, sales are down. In comparision to what? OK, they've fallen off a cliff. And how about the rest of motorcycles in general or even recreational items like boats, snowmobiles, ATVs, convertibles, etc, etc........How does this compare with the overall economy and other spending trends.......

This is junk.

[twinn]

Yes they will survive.

Will the marketshare be the same, no.

People will always want old school tech, I dont know why but look at Harley and their marketshare.

Just because simply there are folks out there (sure there are tons fo Harley forums) that will never ever but a sport bike.

[Brian P]

Certainly, there will continue to be various styles of bikes available.

But a retro-looking bike will have to cover up underpinnings with ABS (required), fuel injection (no more rough idle trademark for the H-D crowd), probably the very large displacement jobs will go away (due to CO2 / fuel consumption regulation), possibly engine stop/start systems (no more idling at all! in the interest of CO2 / fuel consumption), probably direct fuel injection (CO2 / fuel consumption ...), and who knows what else.

None of this requires any major technological breakthrough, it's all already in production somewhere, although in the case of direct fuel injection, only outside the motorcycle world (plenty of cars are getting this). But "simple" and "low-tech", it won't be.

by the way, there is a Honda scooter available in SE Asia that already includes engine stop/start (shuts down when the bike stops, automatically restarts on demand).

[CanadianBiker]

But a retro-looking bike will have to cover up underpinnings with ABS (required), fuel injection (no more rough idle trademark for the H-D crowd), probably the very large displacement jobs will go away (due to CO2 / fuel consumption regulation), possibly engine stop/start systems (no more idling at all! in the interest of CO2 / fuel consumption), probably direct fuel injection (CO2 / fuel consumption ...), and who knows what else.

Harleys have had fuel injection for years now, ABS came out in the Touring line a couple years ago and has extended to Softails and the rear cyclinder shuts off at idle (more of a heat management thing but essentially the same principal). I'm sure the other manufacturers of large displacement cruisers have similar things in production or in the works.
So the argument that cruisers are A) dinosaurs and B) on their way out due to technological restraints doesn't hold water. One could also argue that sportbikes will eventually be outlawed because the bikes' abilities far exceed those of the riders and who needs a machine capable of 250kph+ when the limit is 100kph? Considering how insurance companies regard sportbikes, all they need to do is band together and say they won't insure them anymore.

[homme de fer]

CanadianBiker has a good point. SS riders generally don't like cruisers so their argument will always be that their bikes will survive into the future while "dinosaur bikes" won't.

The biggest factor in the future of motorcycling will be how many new riders are brought into sport/passtime. Develop the new riders and manufacturers guarantee themselves sales into the future.

[Brian P]

The dinosaurs are not "sport" or "touring" or "cruiser" or whatever.

The dinosaurs are large displacement bikes of all types with poor fuel consumption, noise, and/or emission characteristics (pick whichever apply).

I forgot to mention that air cooling is another thing that may go the way of the dodo, and there are two reasons behind this - one being noise (no cooling jacket to absorb mechanical noise, and it's necessary to use larger internal clearances so there's more of it - and the drive-by noise standards don't care whether sound is coming from the exhaust or the engine), and the other being emissions (lack of adequate temperature control makes it hard to simultaneously control NOx and HC/CO - air-cooled engines like running rich for temperature control, but that's a no-no for fuel consumption / CO2 and emissions).

Certainly Harley-Davidson as a company isn't going to disappear because of this, and they already have fuel injection (across the board) and ABS in some models, and liquid cooling in some models. All mainstream manufacturers are well aware of upcoming technical regulations worldwide.

Some of the things that make a sport bike a sport bike are going to be tempered (the extreme large displacement models - we'll have slower bikes). Some of the things that give a cruiser some of its traditional characteristics are also going to be tempered (How wierd will it be to have an engine shut down into silence at a stop? And liquid cooling has been problematic to H-D's traditional market - they never really bought in to the V-Rod - but if upcoming noise standards force liquid cooling ... something's going to give). Some of the things that make a dual-purpose bike what it is are also going to be tempered - I'm not a dirt rider, but I've been hearing that the upcoming EU regulation for 2013 requiring ABS that you can't turn off is going to be trouble. Stunters and wheelie kings won't like the upcoming ABS requirement, either.

[twinn]

Big issue will be marketplace demand.

Cars have been steadily falling in price, you can buy a 2010 Toyota Corolla for the approx the same price as a brand new one cost in 2000.

Lots of subcompacts in the marketplace at prices that were the same as new 10 years ago.

And there have been huge improvements in technolgy over those 10 years, car manufacturs have become more lean and have adapted to the new marketplace. Can motorcycle companies do the same.

ABS, etc.. are going to cost big money and is the end user-consumer willing to pay?

Bike prices have gone up YoY and may reach a point in time were the consumer is just not willing to pay for it.

The Honda CBR 125/ Ninja 250 was a huge breakthrough in marketplace for those respective companies and if they continue down that path they will do well. I do see a limited market for 1000cc sport bikes and larger displacement cruisers in the future though.

Thats the question

[nakkers]

In some parts of the world, bikes are mass transit or the only method of transit besides walking or bicycles.

In North America and in some other countries, bikes are a hobby/toy/expression. Technogy will advance as priorities change or evolve. But, bikes will continue to feed egos as long as there are some to feed.

SS/cruiser/adventure etc. All will have their place as long as they can bring a profit to the company that makes them.

I still see a long and bright future for air cooled cruisers for sometime.

[Araqiels]

CNN rocks the bike industry.

[mototrek]

Ok...
I'm 66 years old
Fat
5' 9""
Bad knees
Diabetic

..... and someone thinks I'd like a sport bike or even a sport Tourer?

Sorry - tried... lived in pain for the 40 minutes of the ride. Knees were so sore, I was forever sitting on the TANK to allow legs to straighten out!!! On the FJR I rode, my wrists were sore in 10 minutes.

I ride a lot - like every day since I retired back in 2000. I ride all day - often 500 to 800 kms a day

I understand (studies show) there'll be more and more fat diabetics in the future - and many of them will be riding cruisers. So will many older people who can no longer twist their bodies like they used to.

Companies will continue to sell - not like they did from 1998 to 2006 - BABY BOOM is over - no more bubble - but market demands will be population driven... and as I noted above, many many more old farts on pensions supported by fewer and fewer young folks to support us... LOL! They won't be able to afford bikes at all!

Big Fat Bikes Rule! LOL

[crankcall]

I still see a long and bright future for air cooled cruisers for sometime.

California is phasing out sales of air cooled recreational vehicles, this will mean no V twin air cooled harleys. Cali is one of the biggest markets and as goes legislation in Cali , so follow the other states. Look at what happened to the furniture/kitchen/building materials industry in two years with CARB legislation.
That why harley needed to acquire MV agusta, for the liquid cooling Vtwin tech that was ahead of the curve for Europe, thats the model for california.
With ABS being legislated into Europe, it may follow here and all the bells and whistles which i do like will only increase the cost of the door for new riders. As they cost more to fix, insurance costs will follow.
The third world will buy and allow old tech, but that wont keep the bike industry afloat.
The custom cruiser market has seen the peak, accountants and dentists are getting tired of the harleys they bought and custom bike builders are closing shop. Here in North America and canada specifically bikes are toys, sales wont be going up any day soon.

[adri]

So no one from Cali would ride an hour out of state to get an air-cooled v-twin eh?