Agreed on Aleix staying, assuming he wants to. There was talk of him retiring at the end of this season, but after his win in Argentina, he said he wanted to keep racing for one or two more years. Assuming his form doesn't drop off massively, I can't imagine Aprilia not keeping him where he is.
Maverick is much more vulnerable, as his results haven't improved much and he has a nasty habit of giving quotes that make everyone look bad (granted, they're often presented without context, and aren't as bad as some snippets sound, but he needs to shut up for a bit). With the overabundance of availabile talent, all the burnt bridges, and Aleix's success contrasted with Vinales' struggles, he could easily be without a ride for next year if he's not careful. Or, if Aprilia finally gets a satellite team, he could get parked there...
Mir to Repsol Honda is a rumour that won't go away, and considering how much Pol has struggled with the bike after the first round, I assume Honda wants someone new there. Last year was kind of a free pass because that bike was the Marquez Special, but this year the bike was designed with his input, so it's harder to make excuses. Mia's style is hard braking, so it may suit the Honda.
The assumption is Rins will try to get on a Yamaha, as his style is silky smooth, a better fit for the corner speed inline machines. Lin Jarvis has said that Frankie is staying with the factory team for next year as per his contract, so for that to happen (and assuming Jarvis isn't obfuscating), Rins would be forced to ride with whatever satellite team Yamaha fields, whether it's RNF or someone new.
Otherwise, Miller is likely off the factory Ducati next year, and is rumoured to maybe take Alex M's ride at LCR. Martin probably gets the other red bike, while Bestia moves to Pramac on a works 2023 bike. It'll be interesting to see if they keep Zarco around, too...
Which all leaves struggling KTM and Oliviera, who is also linked with Yamaha. What they do with Gardner, Fernandez and Acosta will be an interesting challenge, as that Tech3 team has been a career graveyard, so they may struggle to maintain harmony with that many ambitious young riders all wanting to escape that sentence.