This is another problem that will be solved by self-driving cars. Private car ownership will implode to 1% in a few decades. Condos that invest in charging infrastructure will be wasting their money.
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Any GTAM'ers own an electric vehicle?
- Thread starter PrivatePilot
- Start date
Disagree.
Self driving cars becoming the majority is probably 4+ decades away, and even then people will still physically own the car (the concept of a bikeshare type arrangement where centralized cars just go wherever needed without actually owning it is a fallacy) so it’ll need a place to park/charge anyways. Charging infrastructure will need to exist in both current and future realities.
If you think there’s a lot of people who rail against EV’s, check out how many rail against the concept of self driving. At least as EV’s become more commonplace people will still accept that they’re still actually driving the car, it’s their own (so they aren’t dealing with the previous occupants filth, you know that’s inevitable), etc etc.
Self driving cars becoming the majority is probably 4+ decades away, and even then people will still physically own the car (the concept of a bikeshare type arrangement where centralized cars just go wherever needed without actually owning it is a fallacy) so it’ll need a place to park/charge anyways. Charging infrastructure will need to exist in both current and future realities.
If you think there’s a lot of people who rail against EV’s, check out how many rail against the concept of self driving. At least as EV’s become more commonplace people will still accept that they’re still actually driving the car, it’s their own (so they aren’t dealing with the previous occupants filth, you know that’s inevitable), etc etc.
There's a few guys (Tony Seba) with these sort of scenarios regarding future of private ownership. They always are somehow vested in a start-up of similar interests ... that is not to say that private ownership will go down, but to 1%? Not in North America. I don't think so. I cannot see such a drastic number of families relying on sharing service on weekends, vacations etc. Some people will not share cars period, not even for a short commute .... I think down to 30% is more realistic ...
Just for the record, I don't care for any self-or-autonomy car features. Pilot this pilot that .... I am sure it will come when I am too old to be sharp enough, but I cannot see any reason why now, should I rely on a bunch of sensors and algorithms, regardless what Elon is telling me ....
No it is not, but it also happens in very very small %, especially in North America. With good reasons. I'd argue that my personal freedom device, by far, is a car .... you can have my phone right now, I'd get by easily. You take my car away, and I am done. My life will change in such a way, nothing else comes close ...
Reading all of the above, proves that Hydrogen is the best option for Zero emmission vehicles. NO need for silly condo and mall charging networks.
ITs coming, when people realize how great and convenient it can be to run a hydrogen powered vehicle over "pluggin in", the benefits will be realized.
ITs coming, when people realize how great and convenient it can be to run a hydrogen powered vehicle over "pluggin in", the benefits will be realized.
Yes people are going to line up for a wasteful expensive fuel i can see it coming. Why use the electrical energy for your car when you can use twice as much per unit of energy and make hydrogen to turn back into electricity at a loss again.
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I have a feeling that if Honda had a pure EV we would hear that electricity is just fine, but because they put all their early bets on Clarity we get to hear that hydrogen is it. Now Honda scrambles their eggs while others are already selling decent numbers of EV's ... mind-boggling.
How is driving to a charging station, which costs peanuts in comparison to hydrogen station, and "filling up" there is somehow worse. Yes, right now it's arguably longer, but this time will come down with every battery improvement, plus people will learn that no you don't need a quick charge more than up to 80%. Where, or how could anyone square this in favor of hydrogen???
How is driving to a charging station, which costs peanuts in comparison to hydrogen station, and "filling up" there is somehow worse. Yes, right now it's arguably longer, but this time will come down with every battery improvement, plus people will learn that no you don't need a quick charge more than up to 80%. Where, or how could anyone square this in favor of hydrogen???
You are being nice ... the efficiency gap is downright atrocious.
I'm the same way but we're a community of gearheads here. Step outside and look at what people choose to drive and the effort and interest they put into it, and it's clear they'd much rather be chauffeured. It's still considered a luxury, and having a computer do it for them is just as good as having Jeeves.
But the turning point will be car sharing, and I'm on board there because of the savings over car ownership and the convenience and speed over transit.
The modal share of transit users in Canada overall is 12%, in urban areas it's up to 25%. That doesn't include those who rideshare. Most people clamour for more transit because they prefer the savings if it's not too inconvenient. Point is there's no widespread objection to sharing vehicles. It's not like we'll suddenly forget how to clean vehicles once we develop self-driving car sharing networks.
Nor do we see the car as a form of personal expression the way we used to. Again, have to step outside this gear-head bubble we're in to see where things are headed overall.
Don't bet that it will be that cheap. There will be a huge variance in monthly fees ... you waiting for a car 20mins and sharing it with other 4 people ... certainly not what everyone will accept. So I doubt the savings will be as dramatic as some protagonists make them look like. What convenience are you specifically talking about? It's still a car on the same road I will use or anyone else ... and you cannot go just wherever you wanted in the middle of a day or on the way from work. That is a huge inconvenience in my view. And what about weekends and getting out of town? I always think that people somehow assume that most of us sit home on the weekends ....
Anyway, it will happen, I just hope that not in my lifetime ... LOL
When you say we ... you are talking really about 25% of population (I don't know the source, but it sounds believable). I don't mind ride sharing when there's either only me or my wife with me in the car ...LOL .... The only reason why we have to talk about ride sharing in GTA, is because the public transit sucks and big time, for anyone who does not live on the subway line. I'd gladly hop on something decent, efficient and inexpensive. But none of this applies when I tried ... we are talking less time efficient and more expensive, or should I say limiting in the end of the day, because I'd have to still rent a car or off-work activities ...
But I digress from our good old EV thread ... LOL
Glad someone else understands it.
I gave up trying to talk sense to Sunny in this thread.
After he retrofits his easy-to-maintain NSX to run on hydrogen, then I'll listen to him.
I don't see how you get those scenarios.
Picture this. You call up a car to go where you want. It comes within a minute because there are thousands of them waiting, enough to supply demand for peak periods then after that they cycle through maintenance/charging/occasional calls to get ready for the next peak period. You go where you want, with who you want. For the most part they will be narrow 2 seaters like the iRoad because most people travel alone or with a friend or groceries. They're narrow so they use less road space (two of them can use a lane) so they pay less road tax. There will be a road use tax because people won't be buying fuel much anymore. So you get in your car and if it's not to your liking, you press reject on your phone and the car drives off for a cleaning and another comes in less than a minute. If it happens often enough or you have to wait too long (typically during the peak periods) you change to another car share provider. Maybe you pay more for a better service, maybe you save and live with the Freedom Mobile level of service quality. It's up to you.
So now you're off to work, cottage, shopping, whatever. If you need more than an iRoad you request that instead and it comes to get you and your stuff. Maybe you wait an extra minute or two, big deal. If you have to go far you may have to switch to another AV that's all charged up for the next 5 hour leg of your journey. If you end up outside your network range your provider might have a partnership with one in another area and charge you roaming fees.
No maintenance, no parking, no garage and driveway, door to door non stop all the way, no strangers next to you. That's pretty convenient. The reason it'll be cheap is because they'll cost less to operate to begin with, the costs are split with other users, and of course because they'll be much safer. This is what transportation will look like, probably within my lifetime. And I think it's awesome.
... Not my vision or dream, and definitely not in my lifetime. You must be very young ...
I think your scenario is wildly optimistic. There will be times when you want/need a car on short notice and there will be none available, that’s inevitable. Think rush hour, for one simple example.
There will be no way a company can have literally millions of cars sitting around to satisfy demand during rush hours and have a vehicle less than 5 minutes away from everyone, at all times, only to have those cars sit the other 20+ hours a day not utilized, as the average passenger car is used.
And where exactly do those millions of cars park, especially if they’re electric and need charging?
And anyone who’s ever regularly used taxis in the past know about other passengers and their filth. I used to be in taxis twice a day 5 days a week for years and it often sucked - previous occupants coffee spilled on the seats, garbage, the occasional whiff of vomit, boogers on the back of the passenger seat (I **** you not), not to mention those who hack and cough their germs everywhere ....and this is with a driver who should be a deterrent for this sort of stuff, as well as cleaning up occasionally. Can you imagine a situation where there’s nobody in the car to even care about all this before you and your family pile in?
It ain’t gonna happen for a very, very long time.
There will be no way a company can have literally millions of cars sitting around to satisfy demand during rush hours and have a vehicle less than 5 minutes away from everyone, at all times, only to have those cars sit the other 20+ hours a day not utilized, as the average passenger car is used.
And where exactly do those millions of cars park, especially if they’re electric and need charging?
And anyone who’s ever regularly used taxis in the past know about other passengers and their filth. I used to be in taxis twice a day 5 days a week for years and it often sucked - previous occupants coffee spilled on the seats, garbage, the occasional whiff of vomit, boogers on the back of the passenger seat (I **** you not), not to mention those who hack and cough their germs everywhere ....and this is with a driver who should be a deterrent for this sort of stuff, as well as cleaning up occasionally. Can you imagine a situation where there’s nobody in the car to even care about all this before you and your family pile in?
It ain’t gonna happen for a very, very long time.
Car reservations during peak periods will have to be made early to ensure you get a car. Those who need one at the last minute for the morning rush will already expect to have to pay a one time premium to a specialty provider who maintains an oversupply, kinda like we do now when buying a late plane ticket. That's not a downside, that's the reality of economics.
If we can all have literally millions of cars sitting around to satisfy our demand now, we can certainly afford millions FEWER cars to satisfy the demand in a car share scenario! If we can have our cars sitting idle 98% of their lives, we can certainly afford to have millions FEWER cars sitting around idle for 80% of their lives! If we have room to park our millions of cars 3x over (malls, office, home...) We certainly have room to cram millions FEWER, smaller, self-driving cars together that don't even need 1:1 parking to car ratio as some will always be on the road. They park, obviously, at charging stations.
Cab drivers don't want to confront customers. In a car share model users who are responsible for any significant filth will be charged for the cleanup by the system. There's a lot of ways to implement that.
It seems your picture of our present car usage scenario, the one you know and love, is wildly optimistic!
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