Are you worried about the debt? | Page 2 | GTAMotorcycle.com

Are you worried about the debt?

The biggest worry I have is the sustained strength of our economy. I worry that the staggering losses of well paying long term manufacturing jobs have hollowed the economy and made it fragile. I worry that employment growth in Ontario has mostly been from government expansion of the civil sector, gov't infrastructure spending, and a sugar high from a red hot residential construction market. In the past, low Canadian dollar and the strong American economy created billions in trade surpluses -- no more, were not making as many things today, so there is less to export. The changes in balance of trade might be the canary in the coal mine - the canary ain't singing today.

The current infrastructure spend can't go on for ever, same with the construction boom. What happens when these cool down?

Combine that with entitlement and it gets worse. Horvath talks about eliminating a lot of standardized testing and it's good for a person to follow their dream but realism also has to be in the picture. We can't all be rock stars so be prepared to get a real job and enjoy your garage band.

Construction growth is based on population growth which is based on immigration growth which is based on a job based economy which is based on construction growth which takes us full circle. All it would take is few broken spokes and we're in the ditch.

We have always been susceptible to a boot stomping by the USA but largely ignored the possibility because of the undefended border blah, blah, blah. Trump has shown how little he cares about our mutual well being, world court opinions or honesty.
 
WTF has Ontario's debt, and over-spending/promising despite that debt, got to do with Donald F'n Trump? Seriously? How in the hell does Trump get brought into each and every political discussion? I bet some of you guys couldn't talk about a municipal bi-election without mentioning the Donald.

For anybody that thinks the debt is ok, you probably aren't really considering the meaning of it. Look at it this way, we are paying over 21 BILLION dollars just in interest alone this year, and it will be more next year because the debt is climbing. That is money that we're throwing into a hole, and getting nothing in return for it. If we did something to get that debt down, then the interest payments will also shrink. THEN that money can be properly spent on infrastructure, transit, daycare, junkie havens or whatever the hell you want.

Cuts hurt, but they heal. Ignoring the problem will only turn us into Detroit.
 
Cuts hurt, but they heal. Ignoring the problem will only turn us into Detroit.

really don't want this to seem argumentative
seen enough of your posts to figure you get most things

there is NO level of budget cuts would have saved Detroit
it is a city failed, as the industry that built it, left
along with the lost jobs went the tax base

it is an interesting comparison to Southern Ontario
sure some belt tightening will help ease the deficits
but if we don't do something to save manufacturing
some suburbs and satellite cities are gonna be Detroit like
 
You're right, repairing the job market is a definite priority. And this is where I'm with Doug. We need to make it more desirable to do business in this province. We do that through reducing costs and barriers of doing business, such as rolling back some of the extreme over regulation and lowering taxes. Yes it cuts revenue in early days, but if it generates jobs, then it becomes basically rev. neutral through income tax gains. And people with jobs spend money, that spending gets taxed, and so-on.
 
anyone working in Ontario in the auto segment last 30 years
owes their livelihood to NAFTA, or prior to that, CAFTA

we cannot cut our taxes and social programs low enough to compete
with Mexico, or American right to work states

unless you want to give up our standard of living and accept a huge, poor class
keeping in mind you may end being one of them

if some are concerned about American populism, isolationism
they are justified in their concern over the cheeto that is the face of it
 
I don't know whether to be worried about the debt. Even in my personal finances the concept is too esoteric for me to feel comfortable holding any debt. Getting a mortgage felt like a crazy risk for me and I paid it off in like 6 years.

I get that there's value in carrying debt for those who know what they're doing, but there's a limit to how much and I don't know what that limit is. I'm pretty sure nobody knows, exactly. Even the lenders.

The way I figure, as long as the debt is used to invest in legitimate economic growth initiatives then it should be no problem as in theory it should pay for itself in the end, and then some. On that basis, what I worry about is waste - money that goes towards stuff that won't repay. The billions that the Liberals wasted on their famous boondoggles are a problem. But considering that in 15 years approximately a trillion dollars has gone through their hands, a few billion is peanuts. Waste can never be truly eliminated. A lot of the hysteria against Wynne is a hatchet job from ideological opponents. Things like sex ed and minimum wage and hydro hikes and tuition fees are all useful, positive changes. There are separate threads for those topics, probably several of them.

To me the real Liberal scandals are the ones where they wasted money purely for their own benefit. That's not Ornge or e-health, but the gas plants, and paying unions to bargain AGAINST them! Also a lot of their election-time promises, though that goes for all parties. As much as those things bother me, I don't see how we'll do any better under Ford or Horvath. Horvath is Wynne x1.5 in terms of what I call 'government activism', but Ford brings an entirely different type of waste to the table, which is wasted opportunity.

Ford's track record on council shows this, and we're another decade behind on transit because of him, as if it wasn't a bad enough situation already at the time. It mirrors exactly what Harris did with transit, which we are only now in the process of rebuilding again with the Eglinton Crosstown LRT (which the Fords also tried to shut down a 2nd time). I've never heard anyone say Ontario's infrastructure is just fine the way it is. So will the PCs continue to invest to give at least the chance of being competitive? Look at their track record.

Anyways, my concern isn't debt. My concern is what many others have said here, our economy shifting from manufacturing to... ? Those plant jobs aren't going to come back with the wages and slack regulations companies can find in Asia, Mexico, and even the US. There's no point in a race to the bottom with any of them to try and recoup those jobs. So what do we shift to? I think I saw that Ontario is already a predominantly service-based economy, but whatever the case a lot of that would figure as a pretty big increase in government jobs, which obviously isn't sustainable. There's needs to be plenty of room for the rest of the service economy to grow I guess, otherwise it seems to me we're screwed. It also implies a huge increase in highly trained workers for that service economy, because otherwise those jobs can move to the cheap places just as easily as manufacturing has. We might be screwed anyways with AI. But certainly manufacturing can't be the big player it used to be.
 
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WTF has Ontario's debt, and over-spending/promising despite that debt, got to do with Donald F'n Trump? Seriously? How in the hell does Trump get brought into each and every political discussion? I bet some of you guys couldn't talk about a municipal bi-election without mentioning the Donald.

For anybody that thinks the debt is ok, you probably aren't really considering the meaning of it. Look at it this way, we are paying over 21 BILLION dollars just in interest alone this year, and it will be more next year because the debt is climbing. That is money that we're throwing into a hole, and getting nothing in return for it. If we did something to get that debt down, then the interest payments will also shrink. THEN that money can be properly spent on infrastructure, transit, daycare, junkie havens or whatever the hell you want.

Cuts hurt, but they heal. Ignoring the problem will only turn us into Detroit.

My point was that T-rump has more control over Ontario's economy than Ford.

Think about what our roads could be like if the 21 billion was spent on them. And if rates go up or our credit rating goes down, maybe both, it will be worse.
 
LOL. Ontario is going to go NDP. What more proof do you need that Ontarians are stupid? Debt? We'll just borrow ourselves into bankruptcy and default on the payments. Who cares? I got mine. That's the attitude.
 
LOL. Ontario is going to go NDP. What more proof do you need that Ontarians are stupid? Debt? We'll just borrow ourselves into bankruptcy and default on the payments. Who cares? I got mine. That's the attitude.

How about a coalition? Then we'd have two shopaholics plundering the province.

Back to the original question, I don't have any personal debts so not as big of an issue for me. The debt bothers me because it is an indicator of stupidity that could spread to other sectors of the economy.

I would be hurt if the debt was cause for the twits in power to cut back on OHIP etc.
 
...there is NO level of budget cuts would have saved Detroit
it is a city failed, as the industry that built it, left
along with the lost jobs went the tax base...
Detroit was a predictable and manageable economic disaster. It was't like a hurricane or volcanic eruption, it happened because of creeping and excessive regulation that simply tried to extract too much from the industry that fed the economy. By that time the auto sector had fled to less crushing locales and the exodus began.

Had regulators not allowed union bargaining to so heavily tax companies, they might still be there with pensions in tact. Had state regulators used the revenues generated from their existing base to diversify their economy... Detroit might still be there. At some point the automakers simply reached their breaking point hungry unions, hungry politicians killed the hand that fed them.

The deep devastation that happened to Detroit is unlikely to impact Ontario on a grand scale, but it's already happened to factory towns across the province and has the potential to impact smaller cities like Oshawa, Windsor and Hamilton. However, if you look deeply into the job losses that have occurred in Ontario over the reign, you'll see a similar pattern under the current leadership. Instead of diversifying the economy and attracting industry, Ontario has scared industry away. Our leaders have absorbed a huge number of these job losses by creating government jobs -- and a lot of them. They are dependent on immigration to create demand for the housing which will create jobs only as long as we can attract and absorb new immigrants with money. Finally, it has to be noted that the high paying jobs that left or are leaving have statistically been replaced with minimum wage jobs.

Since the Liberals took over, 300,000 well paying manufacturing jobs have left the province - a lot of these in small towns. Manufacturing output in Ontario has dropped by 20% in that time. If you factor in time and GDP growth, the drop would be somewhere around 35% -- if you don't hear alarm bells you might be deaf or too dumb to understand.

Here are a few to consider -- these some notable closures from the last 10 years -- it's not a total or definitive list but the jobs are gone -- getting them back isn't easy.

2008 Cangro FoodsSt. David's150
2009 Kitchener Frame Ltd.Kitchener1200
2008 Shorewood PackagingBrockville275
2008 H.J. Jones & SonsLondon100
2008 Cangro FoodsExeter130
2008 - AprilGencor FoodsKitchener124
2009 - "spring"Campbell's Soup Co.Listowel500
2010 - JulyGM TransmissionWindsor500
2008 - PolywheelsOakville225
2008 - Progressive Moulded ProductsToronto2000
2008 - Simmons MattressBrampton150
2009 - John DeereWelland800
2008 - PPGOwen Sound170
2009 - Volvo Construction EquipmentGoderich500
2009 - Sterling Heavy Truck (Daimler)St. Thomas1400
2009 - ZF Heavy Duty SteeringSt. Thomas60
2009 - UBE AutomotiveSarnia250
2009 - AprilVeltriGlencoe200
2009 - MarchAradco/AramcoWindsor80
2011 - SeptemberSt. Thomas Ford AssemblyTalbotville1500
2010 - MarchUnileverPeterborough40
2009 - NovemberW.C. Wood Co.Guelph/Ottawa400
2011 - SeptemberLear SeatingSt. Thomas170
2010 - JuneInvar (Linamar)Batawa130
2010 - FebruarySelkirkBrockville63
2010 - MayXStrata CopperTimmins670
2011 - JulySiemensHamilton550
2010 - OctoberSaputoBrampton190
2010 - AprilLakeport Brewery (Labatt's)Hamilton143
2011 - NovemberBick'sDunnville150
2011 - JanuaryAgropurSudbury32
2013 - December 31Abbott LaboratoriesBrockville150
2011 - JanuaryFibrex InsulationsSarnia140
2011 - SeptemberCurtiss-WrightStratford150
2011 - MarchIntertape PolymerBrantford81
2011 - "end of year"Honeywell North SafetyToronto80
2011 - JulyAffinia GroupGuelph150
2011 - JulyWoodbridge FoamTilbury170
2011 - "end of year"Specialized PackagingLondon189
2011 - AugustNavistarChatham1000
2012 - JuneFRAMStratford300
2012 - "summer"Sonoco PlasticsCambridge100
2014 - "late 2014"Schneider's (Maple Leaf Foods)Kitchener1200
2012 - FebruaryElectro-Motive Diesel (Caterpillar)London560
2012 - ?Veyance TechnologiesOwen Sound40
2012 - SeptemberPlastiflexOrangeville79
2013 - AprilOrion Bus Inc. (Daimler)Mississauga390
2013 - SeptemberTimken Co.St. Thomas190
2013 - AprilCaterpillar TunnelingToronto330
2013 - JanuarySpartechCornwall50
2012 - OctoberBaskin RobbinsPeterborough80
2012 - ?Global SticksThunder Bay75
2013 - JuneE.D. SmithSeaforth180
2013 - MarchExxonMobil ChemicalBelleville120
2013 - AprilSpartechStratford46
2013 - JanuaryWhyte'sBrantford43
2012 - OctoberLecours LumberCalstock200
2013 Mr. Christie CookiesToronto550
2013 KraftOakville65
2013 - JanuaryVertis CommunicationsStevensville100
2013 - MaySnyder's-LanceCambridge130
2013 - MarchJohn Forsyth Shirt Co.Cambridge110
2013 - AprilRockTennBurlington119
2013 - ?SouthwireStouffville150
2013 - JulyAO Smith/GSW Water HeatingFergus350
2013 - OctoberTender Tootsies FootwearGlencoe40
2014 - ?Knape & VogtKitchener230
2013 - ?Myers IndustriesBrantford250
2013 - OctoberHood PackagingBurlington65
2013 - SeptemberGraphics PackagingBrampton150
2013 - SeptemberGerdau-AmeristeelCambridge100
2013 - September0ACCO BrandsBrampton110
2014 - MayRedpath SugarNiagara Falls90
2013 - DecemberUS SteelHamilton50
2013 - OctoberHoneywell Ltd.Amherstburg75
2016 - ?GM Assembly (conslidated line)Oshawa700
2014 - JanuaryWorthington CylindersTilbury100
2014 - JulyHeinzLeamington1090
2015 - "mid-2015"CCL IndustriesPenetanguishine170
2014 - DecemberKellogg'sLondon600
2014 - FebruaryFaurecia SABradford550
2014 - DecemberCiba Vision (Novartis)Mississauga300
2014 - end of 2014Philips CanlyteCornwall190
2014 - end of 2014American StandardCornwall43
2016 - MarchUnileverBramalea280
2015 - MarchSensient Biopharma & Savory FlavorsCornwall50
2014 - end of 2014Automodular CorporationOakville525
2016 - ?Owens CorningGuelph119
2014 - December 22Resolute Forest ProductsIroquois Falls180
2016 - in 18 monthsGeneral Mills - PillsburyMidland100
2015 - DecemberPremium BrandsToronto200
2016 - marchWrigley CanadaToronto383
2016 - JanuaryLear CorpKitchener155
2016 - "early"Baldor ElectricStratford65
2016 - JuneNestleBarrie85
within 12-24 monthsHeinzSt. Marys200
2016 - "mid 2016"ContiTech ContinentalBowmanville100
in 60 daysCambridge TowelCambridge120
over 18 monthsMaple Leaf FoodsThamesford400
2017 - September 30Northstar AerospaceMilton200
As early as 2020Proctor & GambleBrockville480
2018 - "early"SiemensTillsonburg340
 
^^ It's really depressing & sad reading that!
 
While I believe manufacturing has shrunk from it's former glory, that list doesn't reveal anything. Companies come and go all the time.
 
To be fair, you have to look at how many operations added jobs in the same time frame. It is totally unreasonable to look at only one side of the ledger.

I have a couple of customers who are currently adding expansions to their existing facilities or recently completed them.

The biggest problem in manufacturing, as of right now, is finding enough good people to fill the available positions.

We. collectively, have gutted training for skilled trades in this province, and it starts by having gutted high school shop classes. Not enough people are being trained in how to build and fix stuff any more.
 
Just voted in Brampton easy for PC. I have a bad feeling NDP will take this riding. The khasa movement is strong here. The candidate for NDP is a strong khalsa supporter
 
Just voted in Brampton easy for PC. I have a bad feeling NDP will take this riding. The khasa movement is strong here. The candidate for NDP is a strong khalsa supporter

Singhdale was just undergoing development when I left Brampton
the timeframe I grew up there, it was a rainbow of immigrants community, myself included
but the few times I've been back, I hardly recognize it
 
We. collectively, have gutted training for skilled trades in this province, and it starts by having gutted high school shop classes. Not enough people are being trained in how to build and fix stuff any more.

Nailed it.
Appears that our skool days sounds crazy to students now.
It was the norm to be learning with open flame welding, ban saws and moving lathes and we thought nothing of it. Safety heavily enforced and no one was hurt.

Now its all a liability .....
 
^ that, and no one wants to work anymore
not every problem can be solved with a screen and keyboard
this is where Europe has done such a better job at this

technicians are highly regarded, and well paid there
in NA, a f'n salesman is richly rewarded

first career I had, remember when one of the techs retired
co-workers chipped in and bought him an air compressor for his garage
we had a coffee with him and off went with his tools, that was it
around the same time one of the sales guys retired
company rented a reception hall and through him a huge party
they had around the same years of service with the Co
 
An interesting long read:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/28/world/europe/uk-austerity-poverty.html

"As the global economy now negotiates a wrenching transition — with itinerant jobs replacing full-time positions and robots substituting for human labor — Britain’s experience provokes doubts about the durability of the traditional welfare model. As Western-style capitalism confronts profound questions about economic justice, vulnerable people appear to be growing more so."

Vulnerable people are a problem but the definition of vulnerable is pretty broad. The fabulous fifties aren't coming back.

I'm pro some form of austerity but this is like telling Hawaii to simply turn off the lava.
 
While I believe manufacturing has shrunk from it's former glory, that list doesn't reveal anything. Companies come and go all the time.
Ok, the list means nothing to you. Let me ask you a few questions"

1) Where did the 300,000 manufacturing jobs go?
2) Explain why Ontario's manufacturing output in dollars is 20% lower than 2005 AND nearly 40% lower when compared against what it should be when adjusted for GDP growth in Ontario.
3) Explain how Ont gov't job growth was 4x private sector growth in the last 15 years.
4) What percentage of Ontario jobs are based on construction and stimulus spending? What if this bubble bursts?
5) During economic booms in the USA Ontario runs massive trade surpluses. Not this time, not enough manufacturing to enjoy the boom, we're running a trade deficit. Explain that.

No one of these things is alarming, put them together and one needs to think about how long we can go.
 

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