Do motorcycles have a future in a world of automated cars? | GTAMotorcycle.com

Do motorcycles have a future in a world of automated cars?

Type17

Well-known member
This is a question I think about a lot. I'm usually pro automated cars; I think the technology is quite good and the driving is predictable so you won't really get surprises if you're sharing the road with them. I also think that with wide enough adoption, automated cars with intelligent traffic communications systems will more or less eliminate traffic jams (ie. run at higher speeds, closer together, and without accidents; kinda like how automated trains run with very little headway). I think widespread adoption of the technology will come within the next 2 or 3 decades and I hope by then to still be riding...

I don't know where that leaves the motorcycle. Will it be too dangerous to operate your own motorvehicle manually? Will it even be around or will it get legislated out?

Anyone else thought about or heard anything about this?
 
I have thought about this and I think at the very least the motorcycle, as it is today, will be pushed out to the more rural areas at the very least. I also see the potential for a future autonomous motorcycle, perhaps enclosed, as it would occupy less space on the road and wouldn't require ride sharing with others. Beyond that I try not to think too much as it tends to hurt my pea sized brain. I'll leave that for the experts and cowboys.

This is a question I think about a lot. I'm usually pro automated cars; I think the technology is quite good and the driving is predictable so you won't really get surprises if you're sharing the road with them. I also think that with wide enough adoption, automated cars with intelligent traffic communications systems will more or less eliminate traffic jams (ie. run at higher speeds, closer together, and without accidents; kinda like how automated trains run with very little headway). I think widespread adoption of the technology will come within the next 2 or 3 decades and I hope by then to still be riding...

I don't know where that leaves the motorcycle. Will it be too dangerous to operate your own motorvehicle manually? Will it even be around or will it get legislated out?

Anyone else thought about or heard anything about this?
 
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I thought about this too.
If regular motorcycle gets phased out / replaced with some kind of hybrid...I'm done with riding the street...will race closed circuit only.


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From the engineering side ... Fully automated driving that they call "Level 5" is further in the future than the hype leads you to believe. Tesla is nowhere near as far along as they would like you to believe. There are serious limitations with respect to dealing with real world circumstances. Winter and low-traction conditions are problematic. Bad-visibility conditions are problematic. How does it respond to a police officer directing traffic? How does it respond to a citizen directing traffic? How does it respond to teenagers playing shenanigans? What does it do if a deer runs across the road ... if a dog runs across the road ... if a squirrel runs across the road ... if an adult pedestrian runs across the road ... if a shopping cart rolls onto the road ... if a baby stroller rolls onto the road ... ? ? ?

Cadillac's "Super Cruise" is an example of something that actually has passed a major auto manufacturer's FMEA and validation processes: It only works on specific roads that GM has extensively mapped out (divided limited-access highways) and only under clearly defined circumstances AND it has various measures to ensure that the driver continues paying attention (they have an in-car camera watching the driver's eye movements!)

What it currently looks like is that these systems (and Tesla is not at this point) are capable of functioning to some level under ideal circumstances (not bad weather, not construction zones, etc) and they (not Tesla yet!) are capable of "following the law" to the extent that they don't cause collisions that are "their fault" but they are not good at preventing collisions that are someone else's fault (e.g. they may slam on the brakes in response to a pedestrian who MIGHT step off the sidewalk in a situation where a human driver wouldn't do that, and then they get hit from behind - technically it's the following driver's fault, but it wouldn't have happened if the automated car had behaved "normally"). They drive like the most nervous grandmother you've ever imagined and then some ...

Certainly these systems will get better over the next couple of decades, but in the next couple of decades there will still be enough older vehicles on the roads that "they" can't just ban all of them. Beyond that? I'll probably be gone.
 
Anybody who wants a car that drives itself must totally love public transit.

Put the stupid things on tracks with everyone going the same direction (just as transport trucks should be now) and 90% of your logistics problems will vanish. Trying to make them function on the existing roadways and share that space with real cars :/ well that is Almost as crazy as launching Tesla's into outer space.

... oh and no, motorcycles have no future, we old guys lived in a very privileged era.
 
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I suspect there may be designated lanes and riders will have lots of fun gaming the automatons. I think powered two wheel vehicles have a very bright future even tho ICE will be phased out ( you can't ride an ICE 2 wheeler in several Chinese cities already )

I don't see a role for autonomous two wheelers ....I'm not sure I would every feel comfortable at 150 kph 20' from an autonomous truck.

[video=youtube;YHdqy55M5WU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHdqy55M5WU[/video]

I do see a lot of neighborhood level autonomous vehicle doing deliveries and transporting people to public transit etc.
Instead of rushing to get to work you work while getting to work and relax as the robot toddles along.

This will unfold in the cities like London, LA, New York, Paris, Tokyo and Chinese cities and perhaps in parts of Europe where cold weather is not a big variable and congestion is heavy.

I can see on designated long stretches ( across the prairies ) that personal vehicles can set to full autonomony with the pre-requisite sign off that "at your own risk".

IF we go to driverless on demand commuter vehicles where we don't own the vehicles....that's a whole other discussion and really is a form of public transport for the last mile.
 
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No.
 
Anybody who wants a car that drives itself must totally love public transit.

OR........ they just really hate OTHER drivers. I'm the best driver on the road, it's everyone else that sucks.

I love driving/riding/etc - but when there is so much traffic that it's not driving anymore then give me the automated solution. I'm sure 99 percent of the traffic issues are caused by bad drivers anyhow.
 
I think we will have automated corridors and require some input to enter and leave unless the destination is within those corridors.

Saying that, I’m sure there will be lightly used two lane blacktop a plenty and available for those looking for weekend get aways and other recreational trips.

Could be wrong. I’ll contemplate more while filling up bikes this summer. Lol.




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I'm not sure how the technology will unfold. One thing that I do know, greed/profit will always be the driver. There may come a time if you have a vehicle with a steering wheel the insurance companies will make certain it's unaffordable to operate. Motorcycles and muscle cars will be lumped in with the manually controlled category and will be reduced to a museum item. I really hope I'm wrong on this one.
Happy apexes.
 
There may come a time if you have a vehicle with a steering wheel the insurance companies will make certain it's unaffordable to operate.

The future is nearly here in that respect already! Letting motorcycles share the road with SDVs and causing huge headaches in return for minimal licensing fees isn't that different than the situation now. In fact, right now is worse and I haven't heard serious calls for banning motorcycles.
 
Anybody who wants a car that drives itself must totally love public transit.

Put the stupid things on tracks with everyone going the same direction (just as transport trucks should be now) and 90% of your logistics problems will vanish. Trying to make them function on the existing roadways and share that space with real cars :/ well that is Almost as crazy as launching Tesla's into outer space.

... oh and no, motorcycles have no future, we old guys lived in a very privileged era.
this...
kinda..motorcycles will always be around in one form or another...track, dirt or street. dirt is really picking up over the last couple years IMO

ya everything can be put on tracks but thats not without its issues, train derailments have happened and in the GTA...

i have no interest in a self driving car, i like driving, and i like riding.
im also not sold on the fully electric vehicles. the charging infrastructure just isnt in place yet and even when it is with the rising cost of electricity by the time its readily available the cost will be about the same as pumping gas.

i think driver aids like blind spot sensors, auto braking, lane departure warnings...stuff like that is a good assistant but not to be relied on, ive seen a lot of sensors fail over the years.
 
this...
kinda..motorcycles will always be around in one form or another...track, dirt or street. dirt is really picking up over the last couple years IMO

ya everything can be put on tracks but thats not without its issues, train derailments have happened and in the GTA...

i have no interest in a self driving car, i like driving, and i like riding.
im also not sold on the fully electric vehicles. the charging infrastructure just isnt in place yet and even when it is with the rising cost of electricity by the time its readily available the cost will be about the same as pumping gas.

i think driver aids like blind spot sensors, auto braking, lane departure warnings...stuff like that is a good assistant but not to be relied on, ive seen a lot of sensors fail over the years.

I agree. My concern with dirt is as popularity increases, the environmentalist will pick up steam too.

Then outlaw rec vehicles due to the impact on the earth.


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From the engineering side ... Fully automated driving that they call "Level 5" is further in the future than the hype leads you to believe. Tesla is nowhere near as far along as they would like you to believe. There are serious limitations with respect to dealing with real world circumstances. Winter and low-traction conditions are problematic. Bad-visibility conditions are problematic. How does it respond to a police officer directing traffic? How does it respond to a citizen directing traffic? How does it respond to teenagers playing shenanigans? What does it do if a deer runs across the road ... if a dog runs across the road ... if a squirrel runs across the road ... if an adult pedestrian runs across the road ... if a shopping cart rolls onto the road ... if a baby stroller rolls onto the road ... ? ? ?

Look up VANET.

The concept of a VANET is the missing factor to reaching level 5 automation. The problem, however, is that VANET would require the automobile, w3c/ieee/software, and the government to get along and develop standards.

As you might expect, America and Europe have developed their own standards and have been arguing with each other since 2016...so this might take a while.
 
My wife doesn't like public transit. She can't drive. But, thanks for the over-generalization. ;)
 
Remember motorcycles used to be basic transportation. 2nd/3rd world countries will always see a need for them.

I'm a big fan of shoe leather express and 2 wheels. If I didn't have to own 4 wheels I doubt I would. Meh, such is life. I don't even trust ABS yet, damn dinosaur!
 
If the the future is to have vehicles automated to fit on the roadways with tight spacing and optimal speeds with little variance. Then it does not seem possible for a motorcycle in this situation. Especially if it is manually controlled. Having a automated motorcycle really defeats the purpose.

This would turn everything into a form of public transit. Maybe a form of independent public transit. I am not crazy about that. I like my personal space, freedom, control, and sanity.

I wonder if it is possible to have a mixed operating mode? Auto driving and user controlled. The auto driving would only come on in designated areas say the 401, DVP (or typical high volume areas) the vehicle goes auto to optimize the ride, then out of this zone it could revert to user control.

Anyhow enjoy the motorcycle while we have them!
 
I don't think it's a problem. As autonomous vehicles make up more and more of the vehicles on the road, I'm sure they'll be communicating among each other like a swarm. I imagine they would identify a motorcycle, or a human-driven vehicle and inform the swarm and give that vehicle the appropriate space while still moving past it quickly and safely.
 
Remember motorcycles used to be basic transportation. 2nd/3rd world countries will always see a need for them.

I'm a big fan of shoe leather express and 2 wheels. If I didn't have to own 4 wheels I doubt I would. Meh, such is life. I don't even trust ABS yet, damn dinosaur!

All depends on where you live, work, etc. Suburbs, you need easy transport in all seasons...car. Downtown where there is more public transit you don't need personal transport as much...or maybe not as frequently as the 'burbs.
 

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