How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

So let's just say that I want to believe what hydrogen proponents are selling and I have my mind open ....

Explain to me then, why a state like California and their ARB body, who has arguably done more than any Canadian province will ever be able to do for hydrogen, released their best (and several time lowered in last 5 or so years) projection as 37K FCEV units on the road by 2023 (today it's 1600 vehicles serviced by 29 active refueling stations) ... there's roughly 300K EV's on the road today in California (For comparison we have 16K EV's registered today in Ontario, and not one public refueling station). Are people of California stubborn or dumb? Has the ARB made any mistakes in guiding the people of California to adopt hydrogen?

If their lowered projection of 37K is any indication ... we are talking probably 300 cars or less by 2023 in Ontario? Or again, why this number should be a lot higher? What is the logical reasoning behind it?

Now, I have looked the Hyundai Canada website .... First of all, the car is right now only available in Vancouver. I guess they are waiting for the completion of the pair of 1.6M Toronto fueling stations. The only way to get into the car is a 3-year lease, 599/month + 3600 down. Fuel is included as stated before by others, but I cannot find anywhere what is the yearly allowance for distance driven. The performance is not that impressive .. 0-100 at 12.5s .. 60-100 10.6s ... I am not sure I remember a modern car that slow. Clearly, they are managing the range with performance.

I am not sure what the specs are for the pair of H2 stations (how many kg of H2 can they make per day), but there seems to be a ratio of roughly 35 cars per station and day volume (this number is more relevant for 1.6M US$ per station; doesn't seem that 1.6M C$ for a pair can produce the same amount of H2) typical in California.

I guess the two stations could take care of 100 cars hypothetically? Doesn't matter how you swing it, the numbers such as cost, utilization etc, they just look ugly based on California's experience. Again the question remains, why should Ontario's case be any different? ... I hope you would want it to be different considering the costs involved and amount of ICE cars it will get off the road. If you have no problem with these numbers, then I guess the discussion can be going around endlessly with never ending hope that one day solid state something can save us ...

I think the big thing is the manufacturers and government's are probably looking at as many different options as possible. They are still investing a lot of resources to improve ICE powered vehicles fuel economy, just that it tells me the alternatives aren't as much of a sure thing as some think and/or suggest.

There is still a lot of hurdles for EV's to take off with infrastructure and consumer confidence being big ones. Or like me it's not odd for me to drive 200-600km in a day so electric isn't an option at all.

I saw this article today https://www.msn.com/en-ca/autos/news/general-motors-riding-high-on-truck-sales/ar-AAuK1HA?li=AA8hc8&ocid=spartanntp and you will notice GM has the number 1 selling EV line in Canada with Volt/Bolt selling 6400 units last year which is less then 2.1% of GM's total sales and they are the largest EV seller in the market. EV's account for less then 1% of total vehicle sales in U.S. and Canada.

The demand is simply not there yet.



I don't know if there is an answer that will suit everyone's lifestyle, so why not take a gamble and produce a small hydrogen line and see if it takes off?

seriously failure of understanding the pace of technology and disruption. Again you sound exactly like a EV skeptic 10 years ago.... and some now.
There is no technological barrier to wide spread hydrogen adoption which is why it is being worked on.
Personal transport is a tiny portion of the changes coming.
Hydrogen will be, is , part of that ....it's just earlier in the tech curve than EV.

•••

BlackCam - hybrids have all the range you need and yet some are getting up to 46 miles on EV only .....

http://bestride.com/news/technology...ded-electric-vehicles-and-why-they-make-sense

Industry and government have to prepare now

Everyone Is Revising Their Electric Vehicle Forecasts Upward ...
https://www.greentechmedia.com/.../everyone-is-revising-electric-vehicle-forecasts-up...
Jul 17, 2017 - BNEF researchers cataloged a number of radical changes in projections. The International Energy Agency has more than doubled its estimate about global electric-vehicle sales. Meanwhile, Exxon, BP and Statoil are all now expecting at least 100 million electric vehicles to hit the roads worldwide between 2030 and 2035

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https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/everyone-is-revising-electric-vehicle-forecasts-upward

and you can likely drop that estimate by a decade....

end to gas and diesel cars
A romp through recent, remarkable news about electric vehicles in China and beyond.

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https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/13/16293258/ev-revolution

snip

This is the world’s largest car market — responsible for around 30 percent of global passenger vehicle sales — announcing an imminent end to fossil fuel cars. That’s a big, big deal.

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Run your existing vehicle into the ground....then look at the market ....people now are not adopting to be "green" ...they are buying as it makes economic sense.

88.1 million million cars and light commercial vehicles were sold worldwide in 2016

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Norway is the poster child ...

While Norway continues to be the poster-child for EV Share (38% Share!

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of new car sales

http://ev-sales.blogspot.ca/2017/12/2017-in-review.html

There are far more factors at work towards high volume and that is cities demanding clean air....already buying an ICE vehicle in Copenhagen is stupid ... a $40k ICE vehicle cost you $112 k after the ICE tax.

Norway got caught off guard by the uptake.....

MacDoc said:

Automobiles will never replace horses, only one filling station, you can feed a horse anywhere .....yada yada....

Things change ....and these days - far faster than imaginable....and much of this may be moot as autonomous vehicles may make owning your own vehicle marginal.

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LOL, good one.

bitzz said:

I hope you are taking away from this that your hydrogen powered Tuscon is actually a petroleum powered car.
Hows them for FACTS?

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What? give your head a shake. its a Zero Emission vehicle.


From post 156:


you can lease a Hyundai Tucson Hydrogen soon. cost is $0 down and $529cdn per month, and hydrogen fuel is included. and all maintenance and roadside assistance included if you run out of gas.This is great if you are on a budget and want to know what you will be shelling monthly for your transportation costs, less insurance.

if you live near one of the refuelling stations coming to Toronto, this could be a good deal. FREE FUEL for the life of your lease, and no silly charging nonsense, no looking for plug in places, longer range than Bolt, longer range than the gas version of the Tucson.


http://www.hyundaihydrogen.ca



FAQ http://www.hyundaihydrogen.ca/faq/

Look, I don't disagree change is coming one way or another. I haven't spent time in Norway or China but I feel pretty confident they geographically are quite a bit different then North America so what works there doesn't mean it works here.

The original point of the thread was the decline of fossil fuels. At the current market share and lack of demand in the market place I just don't see this happening as quickly as others here. I work for an independent leasing company and inquiries into EV's are almost nonexistent (we have sold 1 bolt though) and hybrids a little here and there. Just looking at our customers buying habits is an extremely small sample size in the big picture but I felt it was worth adding.

All the articles in the world doesn't change anything until money goes from one pocket to another. The numbers don't lie and people are continuing to purchase gas powered vehicles and will continue to do so. Will EV market share grow? Yes. But it has to grow a MASSIVE amount before we see any great change of the makeup of what is on our roads. And before that the infrastructure has to come.

With the EV vs Hydrogen back and forth. I just don't think there is a hard answer on what the next solution is otherwise manufacturers wouldn't be looking/investing in multiple alternatives.

10 years from now I bet there still won't be a clear cut answer but we will have a lot more options...and some of us will still be burning gas.

MacDoc said:

seriously failure of understanding the pace of technology and disruption. Again you sound exactly like a EV skeptic 10 years ago.... and some now.
There is no technological barrier to wide spread hydrogen adoption which is why it is being worked on.
Personal transport is a tiny portion of the changes coming.
Hydrogen will be, is , part of that ....it's just earlier in the tech curve than EV.

.

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From what I've read, "auto execs and engineers" from various companies, THESE guys, all say yes, Hydrogen is expensive today and filling stations, but will drop as it becomes more common and will become feasible.


You really think GM, Honda, Hyundai, Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, Lexus and others would pour MILLIONS into hydrogen if they didnt believe in it?



I certainly do, otherwise we'd all be stuck driving Volts, thank God.

MacDoc said:

seriously failure of understanding the pace of technology and disruption. Again you sound exactly like a EV skeptic 10 years ago.... and some now.
There is no technological barrier to wide spread hydrogen adoption which is why it is being worked on.
Personal transport is a tiny portion of the changes coming.
Hydrogen will be, is , part of that ....it's just earlier in the tech curve than EV.

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No more like EV skeptic 25-30 years ago ....

I never said it will not be a player at some point possibly ... All I am saying is that it's silly to argue that EV's today are not worth it, since there's hydrogen fuel cell car available ... that's how the whole BS started. EV's will be main alternative to ICE for very long time. Hydrogen time might come, but we will have to see about that what the future will bring. I don't suppose we will be around long enough around buying a hydrogen propelled cars without any incentives at all. You think they are coming in 5,4,3 whatever years, therefore buying EV's today is no good. Ok, understood.

boyoboy said:

Your statement "how silly it is to go hunting for chargers" makes me smile considering the availability of hydrogen stations today. just saying.

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Don’t expect sensibility. So many double standards, fallacies, and flip flops in the EV thread that I just laugh and ignore anymore.

I wonder how many more of those $1,600,000.00 hydrogen fill stations the federal government will pop for, since it doesn’t seem like the private sector is rushing to install any.

Lots of new EV chargers popping up every day though.

What am i supposed to pull my recreational camper trailer with ? or even my 4x8 cargo trailer? Anybody doing an EV that will tow 4,500lbs?

Omg please springtime hurry up and arrive soon!

Allistonfjr said:

Omg please springtime hurry up and arrive soon!

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Yep, just pulled the trigger on some goodies for the bike. If i can't ride her i might as well wrench on her.

crankcall said:

What am i supposed to pull my recreational camper trailer with ? or even my 4x8 cargo trailer? Anybody doing an EV that will tow 4,500lbs?

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Tesla Model X absolutely embarrasses supercar in drag race while towing another car

Or the W15 electric pickup truck with a 5000# towing capacity. http://workhorse.com/pickup/

Tesla is rumoured to have a pickup truck in the pipes, and GM as well..and they'll probably beat Tesla to that market as GM knows the pickup truck market is a huge cash cow.

The Volt also tows small utility trailers without breaking a sweat either - just Google it.

Allistonfjr said:

Omg please springtime hurry up and arrive soon!

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LOL.

SunnY S said:

You really think GM, Honda, Hyundai, Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, Lexus and others would pour MILLIONS into hydrogen if they didnt believe in it?

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How much of that is from government funding?

If you go back not a whole lot of years, before lithium-based batteries were commercialised in large volumes, it was thought that hydrogen fuel cell was the only way zero tailpipe emissions could be achieved. So, governments have been funding research into this for DECADES. In the meantime, computer manufacturers needed better batteries to power laptops and mobile phones ... and cordless drills ... and hey, if we gather a whole bunch of these together, we can make a car move with these!

The auto industry is working hard to build vehicles that people want to buy, but which happen to be electric ... lessons learned from watching Tesla.

Mercedes: https://www.mercedes-benz.com/en/mercedes-benz/next/e-mobility/concept-eq-mobility-revisited/ (The production version is about 2 or 3 years out)

VW: https://cleantechnica.com/2017/12/01/volkswagen-putting-supply-chain-electric-car-production/ (Production starts late 2019)

Auto industry execs believe hydrogen will leap frog electrics

Electrics are just a stop gap measure just as lame plug in hybrids are today

They believe all the $$ invested in fuel cells can be used in "land, sea and air" applications. Not just cars. Hence the hefty investment.

Lots laughed at the Prius and Toyota was on the money....

Toyota wants to change the world with Mirai, its new hydrogen car
Twenty years ago, the Prius popularised hybrid vehicles and transformed the automobile industry. Will Toyota's hydrogen fuel cell car, the Mirai, repeat the trick?

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http://www.wired.co.uk/article/toyota-mirai-hydrogen-car-replicate-prius-success

The energy density is just so attractive.

This is a long read and worthwhile.

yikes ....rise of the machines indeed

Toyota is still all in on Hydrogen.

But all the rest, even Honda, are starting to question the viability of it in the face of battery capacities increasing and yes, most importantly, the infrastructure issues.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...cess-leaves-toyota-isolated-with-hydrogen-bet

Toyota Motor Corp., which has made a big bet on hydrogen-powered cars, is looking more isolated as industry rivals double down on plug-in electric vehicles as the dominant technology in the emerging post-fossil fuel era.

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Toyota isn’t the only player in fuel-cell vehicle development. However, even hydrogen-car backers such as Honda Motor Co., Hyundai Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG’s Audi have refocused their zero-emissions car strategies on EVs. Investment in hydrogen power stations has been glacial and technology advances have lowered the cost of batteries and extended driving ranges.

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Toyota, which leads FCV sales globally with the Mirai, has only shipped about 4,300 since its launch in late 2014. By contrast, Nissan has sold about 300,000 of the Leaf since 2010 and Tesla has delivered more than 250,000 electric vehicles since the first Roadster rolled out in 2008.

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MacDoc said:

Lots laughed at the Prius and Toyota was on the money....



http://www.wired.co.uk/article/toyota-mirai-hydrogen-car-replicate-prius-success

The energy density is just so attractive.

This is a long read and worthwhile.

yikes ....rise of the machines indeed

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Lol....Proof yet again of what I've been saying all along.

Quote taken from article above.....


In January 2017, Toyota and 13 other companies including Honda, Hyundai, Daimler, Shell and Total announced the Hydrogen Council, a group focused on developing hydrogen as an alternative to fossil fuels. Although electric vehicles are becoming mainstream, many in the industry consider hydrogen to be the true successor to fossil fuels

What are the benefits of Hydrogen over EV in the future?

I know the solution isn’t one that needs only one. We can have several approaches.

The Bolt is an example of electric that can have decent range. I’m sure it can be developed with other platforms.

Even the approach to off the drive train from the Volt could be used for other platforms.





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I see 2 main hurdles, then a few minor ones for EVs.

1) Cost. You simply can't buy and operate an EV for the same price as a compatible ICE car, it's not even close for most people. Yes, you can save a lot on fuel, but this does not overcome the additional capital cost and the massive cost depreciation on most EVs.
2) Carbon footprint. In North America and Europe, EV's lower our carbon footprint. Not so in most of the developing world -- EVs used in coal fired electricity producing countries have a negative carbon footprint when compared same-size efficient cars, and way more negative when compared to the simpler small displacement motorcycles they replace. I think this is a sleeper issue.

To a lesser extent I think people are starting to accept the range limitations.

nakkers said:

What are the benefits of Hydrogen over EV in the future?

I know the solution isn’t one that needs only one. We can have several approaches.

The Bolt is an example of electric that can have decent range. I’m sure it can be developed with other platforms.

Even the approach to off the drive train from the Volt could be used for other platforms.





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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there are several advantages, here are the 3 biggest for the common consumer,

-Hydrogen cars can be refuelled as quickly as gas cars. A Bolt takes 9 hours to charge at 240v
-Hydrogen cars travel further than electrics, which is always nice as you can travel farther and longer than wait hours for a charge
-Hydrogen cars don't suffer in the cold like Electrics do. You won't lose range, and can still blast your heater.
-Last but not least, do you really want to go driving around jockeying for a place to plug in everytime you go to malls, businesses, and other establishments? Do you really want to wait hours for your car to charge everytime you head out? In todays hurry up society, it just doesn't make sense.


When the fill station infrastructure starts to come on line, its clear that Hydrogen is the best path to Zero Emission driving for the future.