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Thread: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

  1. #61
    MacDoc's Avatar
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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

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    nd I doubt that I would ever be rich enough to consider a Tesla.
    Designed to attain the highest safety ratings in every category, Model 3 achieves 220 miles of range while starting at only 35,000 USD before incentives.
    $43,750

    . EVIP provides incentives of $6,000 to $14,000 to support the purchase or lease of eligible battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.Feb 1, 2017
    so worst case for a Tesla 3 is $37k ....hardly an expensive car especially when you calculate the $800 or so annual fuel savings

    https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/model3?redirect=no

    and not a bad looking vehicle with excellent performance


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  2. #62

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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Quote Originally Posted by MacDoc View Post
    $43,750



    so worst case for a Tesla 3 is $37k ....hardly an expensive car especially when you calculate the $800 or so annual fuel savings
    Except that they are not producing the cheap model 3 and keep pushing out the date for it. They may never get around to making the cheap one.

    Apparently one of the options for M3 is a $5000 upgraded interior materials package. People bought it expecting Alcantara (based on marketing photos and review cars) and got a mishmash of ***** fabrics in the production cars. Anyone that pays more than 10% of the price of a vehicle to upgrade interior materials is a little stunned to begin with, but they should still get enough value that they don't feel bent over.
    Last edited by GreyGhost; 01-12-2018 at 05:33 PM.

  3. #63
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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Except Canada won't see any till 2020 if we are lucky.
    My other car is a reservation. Tesla Semi

  4. #64

    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

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  5. #65

    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    I think that tickets to The Roller Coaster Of The Future are still overpriced even if they replace the oil spill at the end with a lithium tailings pond.
    If getting the bike ready and getting around with it means you'd rather take the car? You have the wrong bike.

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  6. #66

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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Quote Originally Posted by Evoex View Post
    Wow, I expected faster. 650R performance with 130 km range for the price of a 1290. That's a pass for me at this point.
    Last edited by GreyGhost; 01-12-2018 at 06:48 PM.

  7. #67

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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Quote Originally Posted by 油井緋色 View Post
    For context purpose, I work with an energy management company and have a lot of insider knowledge regarding the world's direction in terms of fossil fuels. Long story short: the combustion engine is going to get killed.
    Uhhh...nope.

    I'm in the economics business and I can tell you the obstacles to your prediction are too large to make your claim.

    CE powered Cars, trucks, busses and motorcycles make about 7% of the world's greenhouse gas, that's a pretty small target for curbing global warming -- heating and electricity generation are the gorillas.

    In Europe and the Americas you can argue EVs reduce carbon footprints by a little, not the case in the rest of the world where a small ICE car has a lower carbon footprint than an equivalent EV, ox or donkey. Considerably lower when you consider very small ICE bikes do work that would be impossible in an equivalent size EV.

    And what about fuel? Producing heavier fuels for avaition, heating, trains and ships, leaves a lot of gasoline behind... what happens to that stuff? If there is no demand, it becomes dirt cheap and that drives the ICE viability further into the future.

    In the last 20 years we have made enormous strides in ICE efficiency and cleanliness. We are spoiled -- we choose ridiculous amounts of power over efficiency just because it pleases us -- that may change. EVs will make inroads, but it will be a long time before they overtake cars, and probably a lot longer before they overtake ICE bikes.

  8. #68

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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Quote Originally Posted by Evoex View Post
    Looks like those Zero SRs are claiming 300+km for urban riding.

    But, like $16k + almost another $3k for the bigger capacity though.

    Whew!
    Problem is these numbers are upside down for riders. The range need is 300+km on the highway and 80 in the city, and as its likely a second bike, prices can't be double/triple the gas bike alternative.

  9. #69
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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Quote Originally Posted by Blackfin View Post
    I predict a huge, "cold dead hands" reaction when governments begin to encroach on people's (especially Americans and rural Canadians) prime movers.
    As the price goes up markets will shift. No matter how much the "cold dead hands" crowd love their pavement princess land yacht pickup trucks and such, when gas passes $4/gallon in the USA, things start to change. Perhaps I'm the only one who remembers 2008?

    If it hit $5/Gal or more, it'd happen faster.

    $6/Gal? Never say never. There'd be fire sale prices on pickup trucks and the market for cars that get better economy would take off...just like they did in...wait for it....2008.

    If another 2008 (or worse) happens and the EV manufacturers jump on things the right way, stressing how dirt cheap EV's are to operate, the market will explode. There is a breaking point for almost everyone - people in the USA just don't comprehend how dirt cheap their gas is right now compared to the rest fo the world, that's all.
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  10. #70

    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad Mike View Post
    Problem is these numbers are upside down for riders. The range need is 300+km on the highway and 80 in the city, and as its likely a second bike, prices can't be double/triple the gas bike alternative.
    Some riders sure, but i suspect a large number of commuters would be fine with 300km on the street. I would be!

    Yeah, its steep. Aprillia Tuono V4 1100RR or a Zero SR. Hmmmmmmm...
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  11. #71

    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Quote Originally Posted by PrivatePilot View Post

    If another 2008 (or worse) happens and the EV manufacturers jump on things the right way, stressing how dirt cheap EV's are to operate, the market will explode. There is a breaking point for almost everyone - people in the USA just don't comprehend how dirt cheap their gas is right now compared to the rest fo the world, that's all.
    Variety of experts have the S curve to start sharply climbing in about 2020 ... Which coincides with variety of cars coming to the market. So choices will be multitude, cost of batteries can only go down per Wh, meaning EV prices will go down .... Regardless, what gas price will do, and regardless what economy will exactly do. They can only speed up the transition .... There's no stopping this movement.

  12. #72
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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Quote Originally Posted by GreyGhost View Post
    Wow, I expected faster. 650R performance with 130 km range for the price of a 1290. That's a pass for me at this point.
    Other problem is they can't get in gear (see what i did there) and apply for the gov't rebates in Ontario
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  13. #73
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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Quote Originally Posted by GreyGhost View Post
    Wow, I expected faster. 650R performance with 130 km range for the price of a 1290. That's a pass for me at this point.
    Not good enough for me. Come to think of it, I enjoy my bike with an aftermarket can more than the stock can too.

  14. #74
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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Except that they are not producing the cheap model 3 and keep pushing out the date for it. They may never get around to making the cheap one.
    I see you are very much on the leading curve of knowledge.

    Tesla Model 3s are starting to show up at Tesla retail stores now ...
    http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla...alifornia-us-2...
    1 day ago - Tesla is starting to bring production versions of its mass-market Model 3 electric sedan to retail stores as customer deliveries begin. The first ones are showing up at Tesla's California retail locations in the Los Angeles suburb of Century City, and Palo Alto in the San Francisco Bay Area. Customer deliveries have begun, but ...

    Tesla Model 3 specs: Elon Musk's budget EV is faster than we thought ...
    http://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car.../...t-in-pictures/
    5 days ago - Now we have a good idea of how many cars Tesla was able to produce last year. According to Electrek, Tesla registered over 3000 VINs for the Model 3 last year, and that gives us a rough figure of 2000 Model 3s produced in 2017.
    On December 29th, 2017, I took delivery of one of the first non-employee Tesla Model 3s. This was a day which many of us longtime EV drivers have been awaiting for a long time – the realization of Tesla’s “secret master plan” announced more than ten years ago.
    pretty nice pic and review of non-existent vehicle


    https://electrek.co/guides/tesla-model-3/

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  15. #75
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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Bikes are harder

    MOTORCYCLES
    MotoGP selects Energica Ego for new electric motorcycle series
    FIM Moto-e World Cup single-make racing series kicks off in 2019.

    BY
    CHRIS PAUKERT
    DECEMBER 13, 2017 8:06 AM PST


    and


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  16. #76

    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Omg that bike has no exhaust

  17. #77

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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Quote Originally Posted by MacDoc View Post
    I see you are very much on the leading curve of knowledge.
    I didn't say they weren't making any model 3's. They are only producing the ones with the larger battery (with IIRC an associated $9000 upcharge). The small battery version that grabs the headlines at $35,000 is not even planned to go into production for at least another 6 months (and I suspect not for much longer as Tesla is hoping people enough upgrade to the larger pack that they never actually have production capacity to bother making the smaller one). I suspect the 50 kWh Tesla 3 was/is vaporware to get people on the deposit list (obviously they are entirely capable of making it unlike most vaporware, I just don't think they will).

    For many, many people using the EV as the second car the ~400km range of the base 3 is entirely acceptable and the 75 kWh battery gets them very little of use in exchange for a 30% upcharge (of which ~2/3 is likely profit for Tesla).
    Last edited by GreyGhost; 01-13-2018 at 01:11 AM.

  18. #78
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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Omg that bike has no exhaust
    Hehe - yeah - we figure Harley EV rides will feature honkin' great loudspeakers and make zoom zoom noises.

    .......

    All manufacturers will produce higher profit vehicles on a limited production capacity.
    Price competition will force the lower cost vehicle.
    $9k add on on a 5 year lease is peanuts a month.

    The point being - these are not vehicles for the rich but for everyday commuter.
    Last edited by MacDoc; 01-13-2018 at 01:07 AM.

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  19. #79

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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Quote Originally Posted by MacDoc View Post
    Hehe - yeah - we figure Harley EV rides will feature honkin' great loudspeakers and make zoom zoom noises.

    .......

    All manufacturers will produce higher profit vehicles on a limited production capacity.
    Price competition will force the lower cost vehicle.
    $9k add on on a 5 year lease is peanuts a month.

    The point being - these are not vehicles for the rich but for everyday commuter.
    Today these are luxury or niche vehicles, they have yet to reach economic practicality.

    I took a long hard look at Kia, Chev and Nissan's entry level Ev vs gas option. There was no possible way I could get any scenario to make the EV more economically viable than it's gas sister. Fuel savings of $30% can't close the gap on financing costs.

    The closest comparison I could get was a Chev Volt vs Chev Cruze. Similarly equipped, the VOLT is about 2x out the door and about 1/3 more effecient. So, here's how the comparison went on a 5 year plan, 125K KM:

    Financing costs:
    Lease: $230/mo vs $450/mo ($13Kpremium)
    Buy: $22K vs $43K (21K premium)
    Depreciation: $15K vs $30K
    Fuel:
    * 25K KM per year
    * gas prices at 1.25/l, elec at 0.20/kwh
    * mileage 7.1L/100KM for gas, 29KWH/100KM for electricity
    $2220 vs $1430/year

  20. #80
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    Re: How do you feel about the decline of petrol vehicles?

    Thanks for posting this. Interesting.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad Mike View Post
    Financing costs:
    Lease: $230/mo vs $450/mo ($13Kpremium)
    Buy: $22K vs $43K (21K premium)
    Depreciation: $15K vs $30K
    Fuel:
    * 25K KM per year
    * gas prices at 1.25/l, elec at 0.20/kwh
    * mileage 7.1L/100KM for gas, 29KWH/100KM for electricity
    $2220 vs $1430/year
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