Price of bikes is going to kill the market unless the Chinese get into the act more. $7000 for a 250cc off the showroom floor? What kid has that kind of cash? I think the sport bike market will shrink, the cruiser market will shrink and the standard motorcycle will come back in a big way. Also, ADVs are the new way for all-round touring and commuting. I'd like to say the youth market is the future but what youth? There aren't any kids around anymore save for the ones we import from other countries, and they want cars. Anyway, I'm happy riding what I have now. Too old to worry about trends, other than insurance rates.
If anything, the beginner market has improved exponentially in the past few years. I started riding in '06. From memory, there were only three beginner bikes back then. The EX250, EX500, GS500. All three were old and antiquated even then. All three were expensive for what they were. I think a decent GS500 that wasn't a basketcase was $3-3500, the EX series weren't much better. A used GS500F that had "modern sportbike" fairings was $4500 or so. These days, you can pickup a decent Ninja 250 for $2-2500. There are crap ton of good entry level bikes at reasonable used prices available now. I find myself thinking about the KTM RC390 every so often, and it's a beginner bike!
There was almost nothing in the standard fun bike category back then, outside of cruisers, it was supersport or nothing. Now we have crazy fun cheap mid range bikes like the FZ09, KTM Duke, Triumph Scrambler (ok, not so cheap, but cool), and a billion variations.
Yes insurance is expensive, it was also just as expensive 11 years ago. Maybe less so on supersports, but for beginners it was. My first year's insurance was $2400 for an '86 Yamaha Radian. That's $2900 in today's money.
I see the market getting more and more diverse. Between cool and fun beginner bikes (RC390...), adventure bikes, the re-emergence of fun standard 6-900cc bikes that don't cost an arm and a leg, it's going to be a really interesting next few years.
On the other hand, supersports role in the overall motorcycle picture is going to get smaller and smaller. Between the crazy too much power, high purchasing costs, and high insurance rates, they're just not that appealing anymore. Super cool as eye candy, but most new riders I know have zero interest in owning one. People just don't care much about that market anymore.
People lament the loss of shops, but that's the way everything is going. With online shopping being so quick and easy for consumers, and cost efficient for businesses, you have to offer some extra to survive as a brick and mortar shop. There's a few that have found their niche. GP Bikes is thriving, Rider's Choice, Town Moto, Snow City, Corsa Meccanica, etc. have all found a corner of the market.
It's funny to think that 11 years ago, people were having the same discussion about the death of the motorcycle industry. Making the exact same points. Seems to be doing just fine from where I'm sitting.
