Fall 2016 ?? ...get your rides in early. | GTAMotorcycle.com

Fall 2016 ?? ...get your rides in early.

MacDoc

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Good thing they are wrong 90% of the time...they better be wrong about this.

That said, I do have my doubts we'll get a repeat of last year...things do cycle, so if it was warm and dry, it means we are due for cold and wet.
 
That's probably not even a legitimate website.

Could be true, we did get a really nice summer

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Good thing they are wrong 90% of the time...they better be wrong about this.

That said, I do have my doubts we'll get a repeat of last year...things do cycle, so if it was warm and dry, it means we are due for cold and wet.

SmileyROFLMAO.gif


What are you going to do ??,,,,throw a tantrum because you don't like their forecast?/
:rolleyes:

Do pay attention ...it's the only planet you've got.
https://www.climate.gov/enso
 
Remember how we were all out riding on Christmas Eve last year when it was 22 degrees.
Did you really think we wouldn't have to pay for that?
 
Remember how we were all out riding on Christmas Eve last year when it was 22 degrees.
Did you really think we wouldn't have to pay for that?

What's the problem, it was lovely out today.
 
My feeling is that it might change quickly. I'm not too concerned, it's absolutely gorgeous now. Hoping the fall colours rides will have similar weather. Now that most of the humidity has gone it's way more manageable.
 
Weather network says nice fall, Farmers Almanac says we should get the snowblowers ready and gassed up by the second week of November.

Considering meteorologists can't seem to forecast the weather 24 hours in advance anymore with any sort of accuracy (which is why aviation forecasts are typically 24 hours maximum in duration) my theory is that "It is what it is" - trust the 24 hour forecast, take the 48 hour one with a grain of salt, the 5 day is a lot of guesswork and assumptions at best (unless there's a major system somewhere that makes it a slamdunk, but that's not all the time), and the 7-10 day forecasts are basically for ***** and giggles.

I'll stop riding with the snow hits or the temps get below zero on a consistent basis, otherwise just like last winter....ride on.
 
Weather is not climate....and when the Pacific PDO shifts ...so does the weather.

Small cell size forecasts are limited....but if you understand that the general wind pattern for North America is west to east ...you can SEE what's coming.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php

We timed our ride from Victoria to Toronto and aside from catching up with the system in Chicago for a couple hours...rode without weather issues. You should know what you are saying is utter nonsense.

There are uncertainties...for instance when La Nina will form up as ENSO development is not completely understood.

When we get a strong El Nino in the Pacific as we did last year -the local climate in the Eastern US will show flows up from the Gulf as it did ....just about all winter.

There is still a lot of heat in the system as a residual of that ( we had 38 days so far above 30 C - that's twice the average ) so a warm fall is expected but a lot will depend on the jet stream strength as to whether we get an early polar outbreak in the east.....

[video=youtube;_nzwJg4Ebzo]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nzwJg4Ebzo[/video]

Learn a little about your only planet. :rolleyes:
 
Weather is not climate....and when the Pacific PDO shifts ...so does the weather.

Small cell size forecasts are limited....but if you understand that the general wind pattern for North America is west to east ...you can SEE what's coming.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php

We timed our ride from Victoria to Toronto and aside from catching up with the system in Chicago for a couple hours...rode without weather issues. You should know what you are saying is utter nonsense.

There are uncertainties...for instance when La Nina will form up as ENSO development is not completely understood.

When we get a strong El Nino in the Pacific as we did last year -the local climate in the Eastern US will show flows up from the Gulf as it did ....just about all winter.

There is still a lot of heat in the system as a residual of that ( we had 38 days so far above 30 C - that's twice the average ) so a warm fall is expected but a lot will depend on the jet stream strength as to whether we get an early polar outbreak in the east.....

[video=youtube;_nzwJg4Ebzo]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nzwJg4Ebzo[/video]

Learn a little about your only planet. :rolleyes:

I still think it's voodoo
 
Weather is not climate....and when the Pacific PDO shifts ...so does the weather.

I'll agree with that on the macro scale, but on the micro scale (once you actually get down to the regional level, particularly around our area surrounded by the great lakes which adds a lot of variability) things begin to become less accurate so far as the exact weather.

Yes, the macro weather picture will predict temperatures and trends with reasonable accuracy, but beyond 5-7 days the accuracy rate of what most people care about (ie: "Will it be raining/snowing, or will it not on day X" falls signifigantly. Even Environment Canada says less that 70% accurate for a 7 day forecast and anything longer than 10 days is basically flipping the coin.

He’s also skeptical of forecasts that try to predict the weather beyond 10 days. For a long-term forecast to be valuable, it must show “skill,” he said, which he said is demonstrated when the prediction does better then what historical climate data would suggest. Forecasts based on that information are “only slightly better then flipping a coin,” he said.

So, yes, there is a difference between the macro climate and the micro weather, but "Can I ride my motorcycle next Friday without needing my rain gear" isn't answered by a macro forecast. It's the same reason aviation doesn't care much about the macro climate level forecasts, but cares a whole lot about the micro level forecasts, for an aircraft isn't in the skies for months at a time, but hours at a time, similar to us guys out on bikes. ;)
 
Like most years....I'll be ****** if I can't ride throughout all of October, but November will likely be a crap shoot. Hopefully I'll still be out to the middle of the month, but will likely have everything ready to prep the bike by November 1st in case things take a nose dive.

Besides, it is typically around that time they'll start spraying brine over the roads...and my bike is allergic to rust.
 
Yes, the macro weather picture will predict temperatures and trends with reasonable accuracy, but beyond 5-7 days the accuracy rate of what most people care about (ie: "Will it be raining/snowing, or will it not on day X" falls signifigantly. Even Environment Canada says less that 70% accurate for a 7 day forecast and anything longer than 10 days is basically flipping the coin.

+1 to this - but this thread seems to be discussing a macro trend for the fall and winter...

I tend to believe the Farmer's almanac, cuz they've been great for predicting good winters (as in, cold and good snow conditions) for as long as I've been paying attention, so I'm placing my bets on them this year, too.

October's gonna be a busy one to try and squeeze in as many rides as possible, cuz by November 1st I'm going under the knife :( :)
 
Now, I'm wondering if MacDoc had forecast all of the "motorcycle traffic issues", when he started this thread?
 
Did 721km's last Wednesday. 26c and no traffic. Durham out to Renfrew, back through Algonquin, then home. Took only the twisty roads and had one of the best rides of the year.
No sense worrying about weather, just ride until you can't.
 

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