not on the cusp, we're still in a recession
not on the cusp, we're still in a recession
Economics major?
- Target closes all stores
- Mexx closing all stores
- Sony closing all stores
What could screw things really badly is the housing "bubble" bursting, even when there are some people arguing that it is not even a bubble to start with. The argument of real state "adjustments" have been going on for 3-4 years now... just keep in mind that house sales declined almost 6 % across the country from November to December... which could be the beginning of the "adjustment"...
Housing prices keep going up:
Canadian home prices rise 3.8% to $405,233 average in December
Yes, 3.8%, but.... "According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, prices inched up an average 3.8 per cent on an annual basis to $405,233 in December. That represents the smallest increase since May 2013. "
If this is the start of a trend... eventually prices will go down.
I am not saying it is going to happen.
All what I am saying is, if it happens, we'll get screwed.
It's still an increase. And, I'll throw out a logical guess here - I haven't looked it up, but I'd bet Nov & Dec are commonly the 2 slowest months in the R.E. market due to the holidays.
If the so called "housing bubble" does burst, you say "we'll get screwed". Explain.
I don't see more than 5% downside "if" it does happen. That's ok. I've heard corrections are healthy ;-)
Well, if the market is overvalued and it adjusts overtime, then the wealth of Canadians who own property will be reduced... example, many of us are betting our property will help us with retirement. What if it doesn't? Or, what if the house is worth less in the market than my mortgage? There are a number of chain reactions that could happen.
So, Deutsche Bank says homes are 63% overvalued, and TD Bank says 10%. Choose a number in between. Apply it to your own net worth. How much is the difference?
They are healthy... but -63% is going to hurt a lot of people.
Fear mongers are everywhere. The Deutsche Bank / TD numbers you posted are living proof. How can we believe anything?
House prices were supposed to flatten out in the 60's. My Dad bought a brand new house in 1955. He paid $8200.00. He never thought the home would be worth >$200K. He was wrong. I bought my first house for $37,500. I never thought it would be worth >$200K. It is.
Not sure how investing in a home "for retirement" works. I'm retired. I own my home. I've been mortgage free for over 20 yrs. Only advantage I can see is, I have no mortgage payments. All the other bills still keep coming. I need a place to live, and I like my house - don't want to "reap the rewards" and look to pay rent. So is that how the "investment" part works?
Why would anyone plan on retiring with a mortgage?
Who cares about an official recession? If there's a recession but you have a job then there is no recession. If there's no recession but you can't find a job you're in a major recession. Now there might be a blip or housing sales and prices go flat, maybe some other numbers don't look good, shouldn't matter if your a sensible person. But, oh ya, everybody's spending like drunken sailors, frivilous desires outpace needs and personal debt is thru the roof. People with good paying jobs can't miss a paycheck because that would mean backsliding in this keeping up with the jonses society. Why are we this sick? We're not talking depression.
Oh Gary! Now you should approach your financial advisor about a reverse mortgage to milk that equity out of the property and into your pocket my friend. lol
A little tongue in cheek quip.
The new age of retirees has them with lines of credit instead of conventional mortgages, paying interest only. The balance remains. And when rates go up, you will see the line up at the soup kitchen grow pretty fast.
Now, is the sky falling? I don't think so. Low oil prices hurts Canadians more than the good over the long run.
We can check this thread next winter and see who has the crystal ball. back to my lunch.
Cheers!!!