Do Statistics tell the truth? | GTAMotorcycle.com

Do Statistics tell the truth?

Carmen

Carmen

Well-known member
Forum Sponsor
I've heard from several sources that most motorcycle fatalities involve riders over 45. I don't dispute this fact. I only want to find out why this is. Is it because older riders are reckless and unskilled, or is it because the older demographic (age 45-65) is over represented in the motorcycle population. I suspect the answer is that there are more of us old farts out there, but I would like every one to post links to some solid demographic research that sheds some light on this question. American information is fine as our Canadian stats may be harder to obtain.

If my theory proves to be true. What future does our sport have with so few young riders entering the market (possibly due to insurance prices)?
 
Mid life crisis >> Impulse HD buy for way too much $$ >> Course is expensive and for losers >> Gear is expensive and for losers>> Dead.
It's Darwin in action.
 
I have no stats to back it up, but I do remember reading that the 45-65 age group was over-represented because that's the age a lot of guys finally have the extra cash to buy what they want, and at that age don't care what their spouses think anymore. First time riders, with delayed response times and degrading senses (vision, hearing, touch) is not really a recipe for success. Not to mention the 'I've been driving for nearly 40 years' arrogance doesn't help the situation.

You guys really should stick to your viagra and warm milk. :D
 
Carmen said:
I've heard from several sources that..
Click to expand...

Stop right there. I'll make some assumptions.
1. You have a computer
2. You have internet access
3. You can use Google.

You will find stuff like this:

dsmotorcyclesafety1_626px.jpg


image010.gif


The stats in all countries is about the same.

Insurance is about gambling. Insurance companies hire actuaries -these guys go through the toughest math programs in universities to tell insurance companies how to use stats to place their bets on who will win or lose.

The deaths of riders over 45 increased more than any other age group from 2013. Those numbers are still pointless when you factor in how many riders there are registered in each age group.

Then there is this...

motorcycle1.jpg


All that graph tells you is that riders are getting older, and new young riders are getting rare. Who cares about deaths, deaths costs little to insurance companies. Younger riders finance bikes and need to carry collision insurance and comprehensive to secure the loans -and when they crash, they make more claims, which cost more money, and they ride SS bikes, which are stolen more. That's the nonfatal injury rate that costs money, as well as fatalities because after a death, the bank still wants its money for the bike.

As for the over 45 death rates, this graph fully explains why:

http://www.statista.com/statistics/252210/market-share-of-major-motorcycle-manufacturers-in-the-us/

As long as Harley Davidson has a 65% market share, more older riders are going to get killed.


As for new riders 18-25, costs are prohibitive, but you also have to factor in that this generation is the least active generation in human history. The fattest, the least likely to engage in any activity besides video games and internet "Surfing". They aren't buying bikes, they aren't buying cars, they aren't actually surfing, they have no money and what they have, they spend on electronics.
The message through parents and the media is to be afraid of anything and everything and sit in on the couch playing GTAV, where you can live an exciting life in simulation. It's just sad.
 
Renboy said:
So Ontario has the lowest number of fatalities, accident and fatality rates have been dropping quite steadily, and yet we have the highest insurance premiums. Go Liberal!!!
Click to expand...

What do fatalities have to do with insurance costs?

$13,000 600s and tools that drop them, then make massive claims is what costs money.
 
CafeRay said:
The message through parents and the media is to be afraid of anything and everything and sit in on the couch playing GTAV, where you can live an exciting life in simulation. It's just sad.
Click to expand...

Definitely a lot of that. They're going to get rolled right over by the group that doesn't share the same philosophy.
 
Renboy said:
So Ontario has the lowest number of fatalities, accident and fatality rates have been dropping quite steadily, and yet we have the highest insurance premiums. Go Liberal!!!
Click to expand...

Ontario also has the highest claim $$ in the country, and the highest accident benefits in the country. You have to be very careful when you compare insurance premiums across provinces, because the policies are very different.
i.e. Quebec, insurance premiums are low, but they pay a gas tax and a huge vehicle registry fee.
US insurance is really cheap, but you get very little.
 
stats are nothing more than stats... you can make them spin any way you want

mostr traffic fatalities the driver is wearing a seatbelt. LOL (this is because most people wear em. )

does this mean you have a better shot if you arent wearting one ?
 
At the time of deaths most participants are going 0 km/h. Go faster for safety.
 
eljay said:
Mid life crisis >> Impulse HD buy for way too much $$ >> Course is expensive and for losers >> Gear is expensive and for losers>> Dead.
It's Darwin in action.
Click to expand...
Then Darwin has failed because by mid-life these prime candidates have produced offspring.
 
Sativa Quemador said:
stats are nothing more than stats... you can make them spin any way you want
Click to expand...

People with poor education say this all the time, insurance companies only have stats to deal with..when is the last time one went broke?

The media definitely abuses data, because they never ask the important questions, like how the data was obtained, and what are the alternate explanations?

Any accident stats will have many possible explanations. The media went all over "people over 45 are dying on bikes" this summer , which is the way to take data and read it to sell stories.

"Riders are getting older" just isn't as sexy.
 
CafeRay said:
People with poor education say this all the time, insurance companies only have stats to deal with..when is the last time one went broke?

The media definitely abuses data, because they never ask the important questions, like how the data was obtained, and what are the alternate explanations?

Any accident stats will have many possible explanations. The media went all over "people over 45 are dying on bikes" this summer , which is the way to take data and read it to sell stories.

"Riders are getting older" just isn't as sexy.
Click to expand...
But we have to look at the rate. Not just a number.

If one year you have a total of 100 registered moto riders and 10 fatalities.
Next year you have a total of 200 registered moto riders and 15 fatalities.

There have been more deaths, but still a lower rate of riders died. MTO compiles that raw data yearly (i think?!) and it makes for interesting reads/reports.
 
Despite all the stats, MTO refuses to release data on which brand of bike was the most crashed or in fatal crashes.

The other issue with age versus crashes is that more younger people drive drunk, and 4X more males than females.

It's a wonder I ever made it out of my 20s alive, really.
Forum Sponsor
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom